I've been thinking about the future alot lately. Part of this is because I now have a daughter that I need to plan her future for. Part of this is that I have some pent up SF novels that need to finish cooking before being turned loose. Part of this is because I just love playing with ideas.
There are a number of technologies that I think are going to be rather important over the next twenty to thirty years. Some of them I can participate in. Some of them I cannot. I am lucky enough that I am a relatively good study and know a lot of very bright people in a lot of fields due to my work. Some of them I might even get a chance to turn into businesses. I attempted that with an ISP back in the early-mid 1990s. Being rather young I lost my shirt when I trusted a bit too much to the guy running the business half. One of our rivals is insanely well off now. :S
My little quest to get into the phytomining business is a good example of one technology that, IMAAO, is going to be immensely important and exploitable. By me. With the right friends. Which I have. I think. I'm in the education process right now. They're chemists and biologists, I'm a 'puter geek with some business experience.
Another technology that I think is going to be rather important soon is that of inexpensive, easily reconfigurable manufacturing. I have a hunch that the state of robotics has passed a threshold. It would seem that Japanese agree with me. They are in the process of automating everything that they can for services and manual labor. This prevents the means of production from leaving the country depsite their demographic shift they're experiencing earlier than other First World Nations. There are some rather good strategic reasons for not letting this happen. Should there be a war that lasts longer than planned stockpiles can handle, new equipment can be manufactured. Or the likelihood of someone successfully bullying other manufacturing based countries into less than favourable sales to you is reduced as well. That's not what I want to consider here.
However, if one of the consequences of this technology is that it is cheaper to build X, Y, or Z locally, what does that do to international trade? Obviously, it doesn't destroy it. However, does it become a case of nations only trading with nations that can afford their toys? Consider if it were as cheap to make everything made in China here in the States? What would that mean?
I'm not sure, but I'd suspect that it'd make for a very wonkie set of trade relations.
There are a number of technologies that I think are going to be rather important over the next twenty to thirty years. Some of them I can participate in. Some of them I cannot. I am lucky enough that I am a relatively good study and know a lot of very bright people in a lot of fields due to my work. Some of them I might even get a chance to turn into businesses. I attempted that with an ISP back in the early-mid 1990s. Being rather young I lost my shirt when I trusted a bit too much to the guy running the business half. One of our rivals is insanely well off now. :S
My little quest to get into the phytomining business is a good example of one technology that, IMAAO, is going to be immensely important and exploitable. By me. With the right friends. Which I have. I think. I'm in the education process right now. They're chemists and biologists, I'm a 'puter geek with some business experience.
Another technology that I think is going to be rather important soon is that of inexpensive, easily reconfigurable manufacturing. I have a hunch that the state of robotics has passed a threshold. It would seem that Japanese agree with me. They are in the process of automating everything that they can for services and manual labor. This prevents the means of production from leaving the country depsite their demographic shift they're experiencing earlier than other First World Nations. There are some rather good strategic reasons for not letting this happen. Should there be a war that lasts longer than planned stockpiles can handle, new equipment can be manufactured. Or the likelihood of someone successfully bullying other manufacturing based countries into less than favourable sales to you is reduced as well. That's not what I want to consider here.
However, if one of the consequences of this technology is that it is cheaper to build X, Y, or Z locally, what does that do to international trade? Obviously, it doesn't destroy it. However, does it become a case of nations only trading with nations that can afford their toys? Consider if it were as cheap to make everything made in China here in the States? What would that mean?
I'm not sure, but I'd suspect that it'd make for a very wonkie set of trade relations.
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