Friday, November 03, 2006

Bad Luck or Bad Genes: A Short Review

Raup writes a pretty good book here. It's a little dated since it hails a publishing date of originally 1993. There has been a massive amount of work being done in the 'Extinction Sciences' since this one was written. The Permian Extinction is the hot spot to work right now since most of the paleontologists have accepted that a meteor impact was the killer at the KT Boundary (and probably the Chicxulub Crater for that matter, but it's not 100% certain, just 99%, unless you are a Deccan Traps supporter or Gerta Keller). However, even there a concensus seems to be forming with respect to what killed off oh so much of the world's life.

Raup touches on a lot of different subjects in his book. He does not concentrate too much on one mass extinction really. He does dedicate a chapter to the KT Event which is more than he does for any other. There's a reason for this, but I'll touch on it later. Raup waltzes through a lot of background information: why is a mass extinction different than the standard ongoing extinctions that are constantly happening, for example, and a good chunk of 'theory' behind mass extinctions. He explores the possible causes of extinctions - biological and physical - and ultimately settles on what he feels to be the cause for mass extinctions.

His opinion, at least as of the printing of this book, was that all mass extinctions were rock-falling-from-sky induced. He talks quite a bit about this and how he believes that there must be a single cause for all the mass dyings in the paleontological record. He was (and perhaps still is) looking for a Grand Unified Mass Extinction Theory. His outlook is that if we don't have a single unifying theory then we will never really understand why mass extinctions happen. If the current work on the PT Event holds up, it looks as though 'impact uber alles' is going to face an extinction of its own.

On a personal note, this book actuall ties in to my life, but I didn't realize that until actually reading Raup's work. Namely, back in 1996, I was in the middle of discussion on rasfs about the ever over discussed Fermi Paradox. I had taken the stance the observation of our own paleontological record, that the reason for "Where are they?" was that none evolved close by and all the explorers went extinct prior to exploring the whole galaxy: a species lifetime if you will. I was off by a factor of four: the observed 'lifetime' of biological species in the fossil record is four million years here on Earth, not 1 million like I thought. Raup is the source of the observation (page 108). No, I don't sit there and fume over lost Usenet arguments! :P I just remembered the stupid species lifetime because I spent a couple weeks trying to find a cite...

On the whole, Raup's work is good and ought to be read. it takes a little more mathematical route in discussing mass extinctions which is something that not any of the other books I have read do. I do recommend reading Catastrophes and Lesser Calamities right after though for a much updated look at the same thing sans math.


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