Global Warming is Inevitable Part X

Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57 percent by 2030 compared to current levels, which will increase the Earth's surface temperature by at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its annual report on global energy needs, the Paris-based agency projected greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1.8 percent annually by 2030 on the basis of projected energy use and current efforts to mitigate emissions.

The IEA saw little chance of reducing this pollution to a stable, safer level any time soon.

It also poured cold water on a scenario outlined earlier this year by the United Nations' main authority on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC said that in order to limit the average increase in global temperatures to 2.4 C (4.3 F) -- the most optimistic of any scenario -- the concentration of greenhouse gases would have to stabilise at 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

To achieve this goal, CO2 emissions would have to peak by 2015 at the latest, then fall by between 50 and 85 percent by 2050, the panel.

But the IEA's World Energy Outlook report saw no peak in emissions before 2020.

To achieve the 450ppm target would mean that CO2 from energy sources would have to peak by 2012, which in turn would require a massive drive in energy efficiency and a switch to non-fossil fuels, the report said.

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Under the IEA's most optimistic scenario -- which takes into account measures currently in the planning stage for tackling emissions -- greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by one percent per year, rather than 1.8 percent on present trends.

Emissions would decline steadily beyond 2030, translating into an eventual rise in temperatures of "about" three C (5.4 F), IEA analyst Trevor Morgan said.

In contrast, under the IEA's most pessimistic scenario, warming could reach six C (10.8 F) if China and India continue their strong growth relentlessly, using coal as a principal energy source.

By 2030, the biggest polluters would be China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan, the IEA said.

Please note: China has stated that it will not do anything to harm its economic growth - such as not using coal - until 2030. 2030! That would be inline with the IEA's most pessimistic scenario. Not good. Kepp in mind for an uber mass extinction the key number is 10 deg C. erg.