Saturday, November 16, 2013

Russia Offers Carrots to Ukraine to Forego European Union Membership

President Viktor Yanukovych made a hasty working visit to Moscow on November 9, which his press office pre-announced as motivated by the need to discuss “trade and economic relations with Russia on the eve of the Vilnius Summit.” Earlier on October 27, Yanukovych met with Putin in Sochi. Both visits received virtually no media coverage, which led one of Ukraine’s opposition leaders, Arseniy Yatseniuk, to sharply react on November 11: “If this is about secret negotiations with the president of another state, then this is a direct cause for impeachment […] because it is about state treason”.

Apparently, during the Sochi meeting, President Putin presented his Ukrainian counterpart with some “carrots.” The director of the Institute of Ukrainian Policy, Kost Bondarenko, told Jamestown on November 11 that Putin’s proposals included a $15 billion financing program for Ukraine, reduced natural gas prices, and promises to continue cooperation on joint projects in nuclear energy and technology as well as the manufacturing sectors. Subsequently, the Russian proposal to launch “multi-billion dollar joint projects with Ukraine aimed at diversifying the country’s economy if Kyiv fails to sign an EU association agreement” were repeated by presidential advisor Sergei Glazyev. According to Bondarenko, the November 9 presidential summit in Moscow was, therefore, designed to discuss Russian-Ukrainian cooperation as well as Russian guarantees and various scenarios for the evolution of bilateral relations based on whether Kyiv does or does not sign the AA with the EU, or whether the agreement is postponed until 2014. Furthermore, Bondarenko wrote on November 12 that, apparently, in an effort to appear more accommodating, Russia has lifted its insistence on Kyiv joining the Customs Union.

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