The U.S. Air Force is expected to offer half of the 14 launches it had anticipated would be suitable for competition from 2015-2017, limiting the near-term opportunities for Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to duel with launch rival United Launch Alliance.
The service inked a deal in January with ULA for 36-50 Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle cores over the next five years; 36 of them are guaranteed, and 14 were considered potentially open for bids.
However, the fourth launch of the Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared System, designed for missile warning, was pulled from those 14 and assigned to ULA to fulfill the requirement to provide the company with 36 cores worth of work, says Maj. Gen. Robert McMurry, who heads the Air Force space procurement office at the Pentagon.
Another launch is experiencing weight growth, exceeding the capabilities of SpaceX, he adds.
Also, five GPS missions slated for 2017 have been shifted beyond that date because satellites already in orbit are lasting longer than expected, relaxing a need to replenish the constellation and also slowing the tempo for launches in the coming years.
One launch for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) will be open for competition if SpaceX is certified in time, McMurray says. A request for proposals is expected in May, he says. The NRO is keen to compete the launch, and the Air Force is holding off as long as possible in order to keep the option open.
Last week, Lt. Gen. Ellen Pawlikowski, Air Force program executive officer for space, announced that the first of SpaceX’s three Falcon 9v1.1 missions would count toward the company’s certification requirements: SpaceX must conduct three successful missions of the Flacon 9v1.1 (two of which are consecutive) to be certified. There is still “a lot of work left” for that to be done, McMurray says. If the probability that SpaceX will be certified this year is high, then the launch is likely to be competed, McMurray says.
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