Poroshenko did something today which I profoundly do not understand: he declared a unilateral ceasefire. He stated the Ukrainian forces would not attack for one week and only defend themselves if attacked during that time. Once the week is up, those of the LGM who still fight are going to get mopped - so sayeth he.
There are problems and possibilities with his move.
First, the Ukrainians moved a very large force outside of Lugansk and were getting to do a serious smackdown on the People's Republic of Lugansk. By stalling for a week, this allows the LGM to bring in reinforcements, resupply and rest. Undoubtedly, this applies to the Ukrainians, too, but the LGM are getting more and more tanks, APCs and artillery, esp rockets, from the Russians. As of now, the Ukrainian armoured forces outnumber the LGM. In a week?
Second, the Russians are moving more and troops back to the border. These are tanks, attack helicopters, airborne units, artillery and APCs. (see video just above) I'd add more, but someone dubbed music over a number which doesn't lend itself to being terribly credible. However, there's a LOT of it and it might get eaten by American equipment, but its more than enough dealing with the Ukrainians if needs be.
But what are the possibilities? Poroshenko will have demonstrated he's the good guy: I stopped, they fought. Straight forward who is the good guy.
He also buys time for the Ukrainian army to sort itself out. After years of neglect, even active malice against the ukrainian army, I can only imagine how FUBARed the logistics are.
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