Global Warming's Threat to Small Scale Farmers in Africa

Small-scale family farmers across Africa— already struggling to adapt to rapidly rising temperatures and more erratic rains—risk being overwhelmed by the pace and severity of climate change, according to the 2014 African Agriculture Status Report (AASR).The analysis, prepared by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), with contributions from several African scholars, provides the most comprehensive review to date of how climate change will affect Africa's smallholder farmers and highlights the most promising paths to producing more food, even in the midst of very challenging growing environments.

"Smallholder farmers are the mainstay of food production across sub-Saharan Africa," said Ms. Jane Karuku, president of AGRA. "As climate change turns up the heat, the continent's food security and its ability to generate economic growth that benefits poor Africans—most of whom are farmers—depends on our ability to adapt to more stressful conditions."

AGRA released the report at the African Green Revolution Forum (AGRF), which has attracted nearly 1,000 scientists and representatives of businesses, governments, farmers' organizations and civil society. The report details both the immediate ramifications and longer-term trends of Africa's changing climate.

Farmers across all regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) already are contending with an increase in average temperatures. Further increases of between 1.5°C and 2.5°C are expected by 2050. Scientists predict severe drying across southern Africa, while other parts of SSA are likely to become wetter, but with farmers facing more violent storms and frequent flooding.

The report notes that climate change could increase the number of malnourished people in SSA by nearly 40 percent over the next 35 years—from 223 million today to 355 million by 2050. In addition, shifting climate conditions can lower the concentration of mineral nutrients like iron and zinc in the edible parts of plants, which could intensify the already acute problem of micronutrient deficiency in SSA.

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