I have not posted about Ukraine in a bit. There have been multiple reasons for this, but the public one is that things are complicated. :)
The ceasefire stopped the major clash between the Ukrainians and the Russians. However, the fighting as a whole has not stopped. Its still ongoing in various places, but in lower levels. One is outside of Donetsk, near Gorlovka and the Donetsk airport. Another is at Debaltseve. And largest of all is near Mariupol where artillery duels are taking place. The Ukrainians report they have lost control of Krynychna, Krasnaya Polyana, Lutuhyno, Slavyanoserbsk, Schastye and Pervomaisk.
There are actors on both sides of the conflict who do not want the ceasefire. Based on what I've heard and read, they are going to try to trigger a collapse in the next two to four weeks.
Truthfully, right now, it is in Ukraine's best interest to keep the ceasefire. It needs time to recover from the Russian army attack. Its units need to be upgraded with equipment. They had, barely, what they needed to fight the rebels. They were woefully under-equipped to fight the Russians. The volunteer battlions, frex, being upgraded from light infantry battalions to regiments with at least some armour. Tanks and APCs are being built (or repaired or even potentially checked out after delivery from other sources) and delivered to the regular army as well.
Interestingly, the Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians have made a joint army brigade. I have to wonder what its mandate is and chain of command. I also wonder how many more might be 'cloned.' The very least this makes for an interesting source of constant training for Ukrainian troops to NATO standards on the sly. Even more so if the brigade will be formally based in Ukrainian territory. Can the Ukrainian president request it go fight in, say, the Donbass? Or to protect Kiev? or...?
In other news, Poroshenko signed a law stating the Donbass is an autonomous region. Novorussiya will run and take care of itself for the next three years, including appointing their own police. There is a lot of controversy over the law. There are also a lot of rumors swirling around it. The most frightening of which is Putin has threatened to open the land corridor between Crimea and the Donbass by force if the laws were not passed and enforced. The second most frightening is Putin bribed everyone. However, given the Russian soldiers have been moved to the 'border' between Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland and then reinforced across the Kerch straight, I give more credence to the former rather than the latter.
In frustration, Ukrainains have started doing the Trash Bucket Challenge: mobs hunt down a member of the Rada from the East or they think is corrupt and throw him into a trash dumpster. This has happened twice so far and probably will happen again. Or worse.
The formal reason for the move of the Russian troops was the start of the NATO-Ukrainian exercises - Rapid Trident - which around a brigade's worth of NATO troops are training with the Ukrainians. That's a nontrivial number of very well equipped Western Troops. They are a real threat...if they were to be used. The difference in quality between even the Russian troops and NATO is significant. Keep in mind the Russians lost hundreds, if not up to a thousand routing the Ukrainians and the Ukrainians were not well equipped or up to even the Russian army standards. Even so. The Russian troops might get slaughtered, but there are significantly more of them and the NATO countries are not looking for any sort of fight. At least officially.
Poroshenko went to Canada and Washington, DC looking for support. He got some, but not much. Ironically, he might be getting more support from Congress than from Obama. A bitpartisan bill was introduced to the Senate declaring Ukraine a major, nonNATO ally, to fund weapons up to and including antitank missiles for the Ukrainian army to the tune of $350 million and for American troops to train the Ukrainian army. There are some powerful folks in support of it. We'll see if it makes any headway given Obama is probably opposed. Obama has pledged $50 worth of vehicles and nonarmaments.
The Russians are not being shy about equipping Novorussiya though! There are multiple fighter and other aircraft now baring the Novorussiya logos in their tails! They have begun flying. This is inspite of the fact there is supposed to be a ban on all aircraft over the region by all sides.
The Ukrainians passed the Association Treaty with Europe. However, Europe and Ukraine agreed to a 15 month postponement in implementation to 'allay Russian fears.' The Russians have since lodged a protest stating Russian requires the treaty be changed. No small part of it is because the treaty has requirements on Ukraine bring into line the items being imported match EU standards. Russia sells a lot of 'goods' which do not meet those requirements to the Ukrainians. This will hurt the Russian economy. The Russians are getting threatening over it. May 2015 and on though, Ukrainians get visa free travel into Europe.
The Russian economy was already in a recession or at least a stagnation when the war in Ukraine started. In part due to the sanctions and the counter sanctions the Russians have imposed, Russia is definitely in recession and possibly headed into a depression. Ironically, one of the biggest clubs the Russians have over Europe is the gas and oil it produces: no more. Or at least not in the future. Western companies are barred from helping, working with, doing business with or financing the Russian energy companies. They need American and European knowledge and money to do deep sea drilling or fracking or financing. This is a medium term impact, but Russia will see its gas and oil output begin to stagnate, drop and eventually halt unless either they can find alternate methods or money. Russia has stated it will support those companies hit by sanctions, but there are limits there as for how much and how long. There has been talk of the sanctions being good for Russia in the long run because it will force Russia to be self sufficient: even Medvedev has come out and said that is nonsense.
NATO has come out to state they see the same playbook as in Georgia and Ukraine starting to play out in Moldova. I hope its hyperbole, but somehow doubt it.
Russia has decided its a prick in general and violated Swedish and Ukrainian airspace. British and American fighters intercepted Russian bombers and fighters as well.
Oh, and Russia claimed the Scotland Decides Referendum was rigged. just for S&Gs.
Again, there is no good outcome for this tale. This is a Ukrainian story, not an American one. Its going to go bad again soon. The best possible hope is for a Croatian Comeback. However, to do so requires a delay, probably until spring, or even longer. Perhaps as long as the three years of autonomy in the law passed by the Rada and signed by Poroshenko.
The Russian economy was already in a recession or at least a stagnation when the war in Ukraine started. In part due to the sanctions and the counter sanctions the Russians have imposed, Russia is definitely in recession and possibly headed into a depression. Ironically, one of the biggest clubs the Russians have over Europe is the gas and oil it produces: no more. Or at least not in the future. Western companies are barred from helping, working with, doing business with or financing the Russian energy companies. They need American and European knowledge and money to do deep sea drilling or fracking or financing. This is a medium term impact, but Russia will see its gas and oil output begin to stagnate, drop and eventually halt unless either they can find alternate methods or money. Russia has stated it will support those companies hit by sanctions, but there are limits there as for how much and how long. There has been talk of the sanctions being good for Russia in the long run because it will force Russia to be self sufficient: even Medvedev has come out and said that is nonsense.
NATO has come out to state they see the same playbook as in Georgia and Ukraine starting to play out in Moldova. I hope its hyperbole, but somehow doubt it.
Russia has decided its a prick in general and violated Swedish and Ukrainian airspace. British and American fighters intercepted Russian bombers and fighters as well.
Oh, and Russia claimed the Scotland Decides Referendum was rigged. just for S&Gs.
Again, there is no good outcome for this tale. This is a Ukrainian story, not an American one. Its going to go bad again soon. The best possible hope is for a Croatian Comeback. However, to do so requires a delay, probably until spring, or even longer. Perhaps as long as the three years of autonomy in the law passed by the Rada and signed by Poroshenko.
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