Ukraine War Update: Нефть Фрид лягушка

The biggest news out of Ukraine for the war is the explosions.  The first (above) is outside of Kiev at an oil refinery right next to a munitions depot.  The other was also close to Kiev right next to an air force base.  There's no evidence of this being sabotage and maintenance is often lacking in Ukraine. A lack of maintenance and an oil refinery is a terrible combination.  However, two such explosions on top of each other and their close location to important military installations does raise eyebrows at least.

Unreported is the Donnie Rebs made another, smaller play for Maryinka again.  Whereas before it was a battalion of tanks and a brigade of infantry, this time it was company and battalion.  This one felt more like a recon in force.  The DNR was probing the Ukrainians again to see if they had pulled back or not.  Some of the interesting bits from the previous attempt were that they made it to the city center, captured the police station and could have held...except they withdrew.  It may be the Ukrainians were going to encircle the Russian/DNR troops and it was considered too big of a loss to risk it, hence, the withdrawal.  The only thing that makes any sense as to why the DNR did the attack  - not their justification (stopping the Ukrainians from shelling Donetsk; nonsese pure and simple, since those shellings have continued) or the Ukrainian which this was meant to be the start of the new war everywhere - is this was meant to be a training attack to teaching the DNR forces operate on a brigade level.  They were in effect blooding some of their troops prior to a real attack.

(Interesting aside: a large number of the DNR troops speaking in the videos released have Muscovite accents.  I call it mushy sounding vs the clearer, enunciated Donbass accent)

There have been some ground skirmishes outside the Donetsk Airport.  This one is a little odd.  It would mean the Ukrainians are probing into the DNR positions, which isn't what I'd expect, nor make sense.  However, a number of DNR BMPs were seen firing at relatively low angles (ie not attempting ballistic trajectories like quick and dirty artillery).  It could be a) they were faking it (not unknown in conflicts) or b) they were being probed.  The videos I've seen have had artillery going off near the BMPs too, sooo...I am not sure what to think.

The shellings are continuing pretty much up and down the contact line(*).  Gorlovka, Avdiivka, Shchastya, Shirokyne, Donetsk, especially the Donetsk airport, Stanitsa Luhansk, etc. Both sides are bombarding each other.

Pavel Gubarev, former 'governor' of the DNR, was arrested in Donetsk by the DNR.  The DNR continues to eat its own.

*.  I am not calling it the ceasefire line any more.  This is a CINO: Ceasefire In Name Only.