Friday, August 14, 2015

Stealth Saga #1: Russian "Stealth"

I'm stuck waiting for a callback.  Again.  Its a bit frustrating: hurry up and wait applies to far too much in life.  I really do look forward to the day when we all have digital assistants which will fill in calendars automatically and informs others which have been scheduled when something has intervened.  However, until that time, I have a small block.

Stealth technology was developed from a series of papers written by a Soviet scientist that the Americans realized could be used to model how to reduce the radar cross section of an aircraft.  That technology was developed by the Americans to use against the Soviets!  Oh the irony!  The reason the US was able to develop this technology ahead of the Soviets was that the US could model shapes of aircraft with computers.  The Soviets didn't have the computer technology to do so and would remain handicapped in that manner until after the Soviet Union fell.

The Russians, primogeniture heirs to the Soviets, have been scrambling since they decided the US was not their friend (many glyphs of complicated textured meaning there) has been pursuing the development of their own stealth aircraft.  The PAK-FA fighter and the PAK-DA bomber being the two programs have been acknowledged previously.

The PAK-DA bomber has been touted as many things.  First it was a hypersonic bomber which would blow past any American fighters and defenses.  Then it was a stealthy supersonic aircraft.  Even more recently it was claimed to be a subsonic flying wing like the B-2 bomber.  However, it seems to have run into trouble.  It may be simply it has run afoul of the sanctions directed at Russia over the Russo-Ukrainian War.  It might also be that the technologies the Russians need for their new bomber are a bridge too far.  Its hard to tell.  However, the fact the PAK-DA program is in trouble is a solid fact: the Russians have ordered a whole host more Tu-160s.  The last Soviet strategic bomber from the 1980s, albeit with upgraded avionics.

However, it also appears the PAK-FA seems to be in trouble, too.


There's no doubt the T-50/PAK-FA can fly and does so beautifully.  The Russian make a lot of strong claims as the fighter's capabilities and the equipment contained therein.  However, there are a lot of questions whether or not the aircraft really is all the Russians say it is.  

The Indians have stated they are unimpressed with the specs.  And they have also stated the Russians have been unwilling to work with them on developing the derivative fighter, the FGFA[1].  This has forced the Indians to consider just buying the Russian fighters rather than codeveloping a new one.  Or they may end up walking away.  They have elected to as least reduce the number of fighters they will be buying through the joint program.  India is really stuck between a rock and a hard place here though[2].


Those of you here have noted, I am sure, that I am very critical of the claims about the PAK-FA.  I pointed out the rivets on the first prototype and how incompatible that is with stealth.  In the picture above, ignoring the pylons with the missiles on them, take a look at the gratings.  Yeah.  Those.  They're really compatible with stealth.  On a personal, nonprofessional judgement, the PAK-FA is looking more and more like 4th+ generation fighter rather than a 5th generation, but that's just me.

There are signs the PAK-FA is in real trouble besides the spitspat between India and Russia.  The Russians have vastly scaled black their procurement of the fighter and delayed its entry into the Russian forces.  This could be a delay which often hits new programs.  *cough*F-35*cough*.   A second setback was one of the PAK-FA prototypes caught fire.  Again, this happens, even if it does mess with the schedule.  Nothing one should gloat about or really take notice of.  However...

However!  *IF* the PAK-FA was going to be ready in a timely manner or even in the next four years, then the Russians would not have just ordered 48 more Su-35s (in Russian, go translate).  That would sound the same trumpet as the Tu-160 buy did for the PAK-DA: the PAK-FA is now in serious trouble.

Despite that, the Russians just announced they will be starting a replacement program for the MiG-31 in the next five years called the PAK-DP.  oy.

You would think....but, no, because...THIS!  IS!  RUSSIA!

*head desk*

1.  This would include turning the single seat T-50 into a two seater and doing some production in India.  It could be the Russians are being a PITA: something they are known for.  OTOH, the Indians just flubbed the MMRCA acquisition for 126 Rafale fighters and seem to be doing their best to flub the off the shelf procurement of 36 Rafales now.  When it comes to military sales, the French are noted for being pretty flexible, sooo...

2.  India has repeatedly asked the Pentagon to discuss procuring the F-35.  It has been ignored.  There are three nations producing stealth aircraft currently (or supposedly).  The US, Russia and China.  The Americans are ignoring the Indians.  The Indians would not buy a fighter from China since that would be one of the two nations they might use it against (backdoors!).  That leaves the Russians.  Or perhaps they ought to talk to the Koreans at this point, not that I think about it.

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