Saturday, September 05, 2015

Ukraine War Update:Не совсем тихо, лягушка

Artillery opened up in Maryinka and killed at least one Ukrainian soldier yesterday and wounded several others.  This happened at 1 am. Maryinka was hit several times with squad level mortars.  Once even when the OSCE showed up.  Avdeevka, Pisky and Pavlopil were also hit.  Tanks were used in various places.  Three UAF soldiers were wounded in Avdeevka.

There were 19 ceasefire violations yesterday.  This is down from the hundreds.

As such, Poroshenko is declaring the ceasefire a success.  I'd be careful about declaring anything as yet.

In the DNR, the Donnie Rebs arrested Purgin and had him replaced.  His supporters have come out and protested.  The photos show mostly elderly folks, honestly.

Some of Purgin's military allies may have fled.  The infamous "Motorola" has been claimed to have fled.

Zakharchenko still seems to be in charge. He has come out to say the Minsk accords are the only way forward.  This is a nontrivial shift. 

Some are saying this was a coup against those who wanted to go on fighting.  I question that with Zakharchenko still in charge of the DNR.

If the Donnie Rebs hold elections that are in conflict with the Minsk accords, the US and Europe will sanction Russia more.  The US recently sanctioned more Russian firms and individuals as well.

The timing of the coup all is interesting.  With the Russians defending their naval depot, possibly even fighting alongside the Syrians and conducting airstrikes (there are reports of Su-34s doing strikes and the only nation on the planet with Su-34s is Russia), it seems like Russia can only afford one war and picked to prop up Assad.  It does prevent any attempt by the West to target Assad's military, too, because it would potentially kill Russian soldiers in strikes were made against Assadite (?) bases.  I am probably overthinking it, but we shall see.

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