Where are Near Earth Asteroids Likely to Impact on Earth?

The global impact distribution of Near-Earth objects

Authors:

Rumpf et al

Abstract:

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially threatening NEOs from these lists that produce 261 dynamically distinct impact instances, or Virtual Impactors (VIs), were calculated using the Asteroid Risk Mitigation and Optimization Research (ARMOR) tool in conjunction with OrbFit. ARMOR projected the impact probability of each VI onto the surface of the Earth as a spatial probability distribution. The projection considers orbit solution accuracy and the global impact probability. The method of ARMOR is introduced and the tool is validated against two asteroid-Earth collision cases with objects 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA. In the analysis, the natural distribution of impact corridors is contrasted against the impact probability distribution to evaluate the distributions’ conformity with the uniform impact distribution assumption. The distribution of impact corridors is based on the NEO population and orbital mechanics. The analysis shows that the distribution of impact corridors matches the common assumption of uniform impact distribution and the result extends the evidence base for the uniform assumption from qualitative analysis of historic impact events into the future in a quantitative way. This finding is confirmed in a parallel analysis of impact points belonging to a synthetic population of 10,006 VIs. Taking into account the impact probabilities introduced significant variation into the results and the impact probability distribution, consequently, deviates markedly from uniformity. The concept of impact probabilities is a product of the asteroid observation and orbit determination technique and, thus, represents a man-made component that is largely disconnected from natural processes. It is important to consider impact probabilities because such information represents the best estimate of where an impact might occur.

Fireballs Associated with Asteroid 2007LQ19

Bright Fireballs Associated with the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2007LQ19

Authors:

Maldiedo et al

Abstract:

We analyze here two very bright fireballs produced by the ablation in the atmosphere of two large meteoroids in 2009 and 2010. These slow-moving and deep-penetrating events were observed over Spain in the framework of our Spanish Fireball Network continuous meteor monitoring campaign. The analysis of the emission spectrum imaged for one of these fireballs has provided the first clues about the chemical nature of the progenitor meteoroids. The orbital parameters of these particles suggests a likely association with the recently identified July rho-Herculid meteoroid stream. In addition, considerations about the likely parent body of this stream are also made on the basis of orbital dissimilarity criteria. This orbital analysis reveals that both meteoroids and PHA 2007LQ19 exhibit a similar evolution during a time period of almost 8,000 years, which suggests that either this NEO is the potential parent of these particles or that this NEO and both meteoroids had a common progenitor in the past.

Classifying Near Earth Asteriods Through Dynamical Histories

Assessing the physical nature of near-Earth asteroids through their dynamical histories

Authors:

Fernández et al

Abstract:

We analyze a sample of 139 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), defined as those that reach perihelion distances q less than 1.3 au, and that also fulfill the conditions of approaching or crossing Jupiter's orbit (aphelion distances Q greater than aving Tisserand parameters 2 less than T less than 3 and orbital periods P less than 20 yr. In order to compare the dynamics, we also analyze a sample of 42 Jupiter family comets (JFCs) in near-Earth orbits, i.e. with q less than 1.3 au. We integrated the orbits of these two samples for 104 yr in the past and in the future. We find that the great majority of the NEAs move on stable orbits during the considered period, and that a large proportion of them are in one of the main mean motion resonances with Jupiter, in particular the 2:1. We find a strong coupling between the perihelion distance and the inclination in the motion of most NEAs, due to Kozai mechanism, that generates many sungrazers. On the other hand, most JFCs are found to move on very unstable orbits, showing large variations in their perihelion distances in the last few 102−103 yr, which suggests a rather recent capture in their current near-Earth orbits. Even though most NEAs of our sample move in typical 'asteroidal' orbits, we detect a small group of NEAs whose orbits are highly unstable, resembling those of the JFCs. These are: 1997 SE5, 2000 DN1, 2001 XQ, 2002 GJ8, 2002 RN38, 2003 CC11, 2003 WY25, 2009 CR2, and 2011 OL51. These objects might be inactive comets, and indeed 2003 WY25 has been associated with comet Blanpain, and it is now designed as comet 289P/Blanpain. Under the assumption that these objects are inactive comets, we can set an upper limit of ∼0.17 to the fraction of NEAs with Q greater than 4.8 au of cometary origin, but it could be even lower if the NEAs in unstable orbits listed before turn out to be {\it bona fide} asteroids from the main belt.

Just What *IS* Near-Earth Object 2009 BD?

Constraining the Physical Properties of Near-Earth Object 2009 BD

Authors:

Mommert et al

Abstract:

We report on Spitzer Space Telescope IRAC observations of near-Earth object (NEO) 2009 BD that were carried out in support of the NASA Asteroid Robotic Retrieval Mission (ARRM) concept. We did not detect 2009 BD in 25 hrs of integration at 4.5 micron. Based on an upper-limit flux density determination from our data, we present a probabilistic derivation of the physical properties of this object. The analysis is based on the combination of a thermophysical model with an orbital model accounting for the non-gravitational forces acting upon the body. We find two physically possible solutions. The first solution shows 2009 BD as a 2.9+/-0.3 m diameter rocky body (rho = 2.9+/-0.5 g cm-3) with an extremely high albedo of 0.85(+0.20/-0.10) that is covered with regolith-like material, causing it to exhibit a low thermal inertia (Gamma = 30(+20/-10) SI units). The second solution suggests 2009 BD to be a 4+/-1 m diameter asteroid with pV = 0.45(+0.35/-0.15) that consists of a collection of individual bare rock slabs (Gamma = 2000+/-1000 SI units, rho = 1.7(+0.7/-0.4) g cm-3). We are unable to rule out either solution based on physical reasoning. 2009 BD is the smallest asteroid for which physical properties have been constrained, in this case using an indirect method and based on a detection limit, providing unique information on the physical properties of objects in the size range smaller than 10 m.

Finding Metal Rich Asteroids With WISE/NEOWISE

How to find metal-rich asteroids

Authors:

Harris et al

Abstract:

The metal content of asteroids is of great interest, not only for theories of their origins and the evolution of the solar system but, in the case of near-Earth objects (NEOs), also for impact mitigation planning and endeavors in the field of planetary resources. However, since the reflection spectra of metallic asteroids are largely featureless, it is difficult to identify them and relatively few are known. We show how data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)/NEOWISE thermal-infrared survey and similar surveys, fitted with a simple thermal model, can reveal objects likely to be metal rich. We provide a list of candidate metal-rich NEOs. Our results imply that future infrared surveys with the appropriate instrumentation could discover many more metal-rich asteroids, providing valuable data for assessment of the impact hazard and the potential of NEOs as reservoirs of vital materials for future interplanetary space activities and, eventually perhaps, for use on Earth.

A Faint, Fast Near Earth Object Detected

Detection of a faint fast-moving near-Earth asteroid using synthetic tracking technique

Authors:

Zhai et al

Abstract:

We report a detection of a faint near-Earth asteroid (NEA), which was done using our synthetic tracking technique and the CHIMERA instrument on the Palomar 200-inch telescope. This asteroid, with apparent magnitude of 23, was moving at 5.97 degrees per day and was detected at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 15 using 30 sec of data taken at a 16.7 Hz frame rate. The detection was confirmed by a second observation one hour later at the same SNR. The asteroid moved 7 arcseconds in sky over the 30 sec of integration time because of its high proper motion. The synthetic tracking using 16.7 Hz frames avoided the trailing loss suffered by conventional techniques relying on 30-sec exposure, which would degrade the surface brightness of image on CCD to an approximate magnitude of 25. This detection was a result of our 12-hour blind search conducted on the Palomar 200-inch telescope over two nights on September 11 and 12, 2013 scanning twice over six 5.0 deg x 0.043 deg fields. The fact that we detected only one NEA, is consistent with Harris's estimation of the asteroid population distribution, which was used to predict the detection of 1--2 asteroids of absolute magnitude H=28--31 per night. The design of experiment, data analysis method, and algorithms for estimating astrometry are presented. We also demonstrate a milli-arcsecond astrometry using observations of two bright asteroids with the same system on Apr 3, 2013. Strategies of scheduling observations to detect small and fast-moving NEAs with the synthetic tracking technique are discussed.

The Population of Tiny Near-Earth Objects

THE POPULATION OF TINY NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS OBSERVED BY NEOWISE

Authors:

Mainzer et al

Abstract:

Only a very small fraction of the asteroid population at size scales comparable to the object that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia has been discovered to date, and physical properties are poorly characterized. We present previously unreported detections of 105 close approaching near-Earth objects (NEOs) by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission's NEOWISE project. These infrared observations constrain physical properties such as diameter and albedo for these objects, many of which are found to be smaller than 100 m. Because these objects are intrinsically faint, they were detected by WISE during very close approaches to the Earth, often at large apparent on-sky velocities. We observe a trend of increasing albedo with decreasing size, but as this sample of NEOs was discovered by visible light surveys, it is likely that selection biases against finding small, dark NEOs influence this finding.

How Much is That Asteroid in the Launch Window?

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Meteoroids Associated With Near Earth Objects

Stream and sporadic meteoroids associated with Near Earth Objects

Authors:

Jopek et al

Abstract:

NEOs come close to the Earth's orbit so that any dust ejected from them, might be seen as a meteor shower. Orbits evolve rapidly, so that a similarity of orbits at one given time is not suffcient to prove a relationship, orbital evolution over a long time interval also has to be similar. Sporadic meteoroids can not be associated with a single parent body, they can only be classified as cometary or asteroidal. However, by considering one parameter criteria, many sporadics are not classified properly therefore two parameter approach was proposed.

Near Earth Asteroids Have Groups

The Near Earth Asteroid associations

Authors:

Jopek et al

Abstract:

We have made an extensive search for grouping amongst the near Earth asteroids (NEAs). We used two D- functions and rigorous cluster analysis approach. We have found several new groups (associations) among the NEAs: the objects moving on similar orbits with small minimum orbital intersection distances (MOID) with the Earth trajectory. Reliability of some of these groups is quite high.

Part of Near Earth Object 2012XJ112 Caused a Fireball Over Spain?

Near Earth Object 2012XJ112 as a source of bright bolides of achondritic nature

Authors:

Madiedo et al

Abstract:

We analyze the likely link between the recently discovered Near Earth Object 2012XJ112 and a bright fireball observed over the south of Spain on December 27, 2012. The bolide, with an absolute magnitude of -9 +- 1, was simultaneously imaged during the morning twilight from two meteor stations operated by the SPanish Meteor Network (SPMN). It was also observed by several casual witnesses. The emission spectrum produced during the ablation of the meteoroid in the atmosphere was also recorded. From its analysis the chemical nature of this particle was inferred. Although our orbital association software identified several potential parent bodies for this meteoroid, the analysis of the evolution of the orbital elements performed with the Mercury 6 symplectic integrator supports the idea that NEO 2012XJ112 is the source of this meteoroid. The implications of this potential association are discussed here. In particular, the meteoroid bulk chemistry is consistent with a basaltic achondrite, and this emphasizes the importance to deduce from future Earth approaches the reflectance spectrum and taxonomic nature of 2012XJ112.

Asteroid Looks Like a Lady, ahem, Comet

THE DISCOVERY OF COMETARY ACTIVITY IN NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID (3552) DON QUIXOTE

Authors:

Mommert et al

Abstract:

The near-Earth object (NEO) population, which mainly consists of fragments from collisions between asteroids in the main asteroid belt, is thought to include contributions from short-period comets as well. One of the most promising NEO candidates for a cometary origin is near-Earth asteroid (3552) Don Quixote, which has never been reported to show activity. Here we present the discovery of cometary activity in Don Quixote based on thermal-infrared observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope in its 3.6 and 4.5 μm bands. Our observations clearly show the presence of a coma and a tail in the 4.5 μm but not in the 3.6 μm band, which is consistent with molecular band emission from CO2. Thermal modeling of the combined photometric data on Don Quixote reveals a diameter of 18.4$_{-0.4}^{+0.3}$ km and an albedo of $0.03^{+0.02}_{-0.01}$, which confirms Don Quixote to be the third-largest known NEO. We derive an upper limit on the dust production rate of 1.9 kg s–1 and derive a CO2 gas production rate of (1.1 ± 0.1) × 1026 molecules s–1. Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph spectroscopic observations indicate the presence of fine-grained silicates, perhaps pyroxene rich, on the surface of Don Quixote. Our discovery suggests that CO2 can be present in near-Earth space over a long time. The presence of CO2 might also explain that Don Quixote's cometary nature remained hidden for nearly three decades.