If you’re looking for a way to gauge how the 3D printing market will evolve, look no further than the dawn of two other revolutionizing technologies – the desktop printing market and the VHS standard. And be prepared for a decidedly off-color story.
While many of us have fond memories of watching a favorite movie when it first came out on VHS, or admiring the first three-color party invitation we printed on a laser printer, the fact remains that innocent pursuits were not the sole reason either of these technologies took off. And we shouldn’t expect 3D printing to be any different.
The reality is that in both cases, the illegal, illicit, and otherwise unwholesome played a major role in the growth of both the VHS and desktop printing markets. While it’s clear that most applications of these technologies were G-rated, there were plenty that weren’t. And when it comes to 3D printing, that unwholesome and downright illegal activity called counterfeiting is likely to become one of the major reasons why 3D printing will be a major growth industry in the coming years.
To be sure, as with all technologies, from the Paleolithic stone ax to 20th century nuclear fission, there are applications for good that hopefully outweigh the not-so-good. And 3D printing will have its fair share: from the manufacture of prosthetics and spare parts to on-demand organs, foods, and your child’s next toy, the 3D printing revolution will by and large have a positive impact on society as a whole.
But the threat of a major surge in counterfeiting based on the availability of relatively cheap 3D printers, increasingly sophisticated printing materials, and a never-ending supply of CAD designs available on the Internet will fuel an enormous black market in counterfeit parts. And the potential impact of 3D printers for counterfeiting just keeps on growing: A recent report by Gartner Group speculates that intellectual property loss due to 3D printer counterfeiting could total $100 billion by 2018.
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