Russia is seeking to rapidly consolidate the strategic gains it made in Central Asia during 2005.
The last 12-to-18 months have witnessed a stunning geopolitical reversal in Central Asia, with Russia’s influence reviving at the expense of the United States. Central Asian states, Uzbekistan in particular, soured on cooperation with Washington amid the so-called "color revolution" phenomenon, which produced regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many regional officials perceived Washington to be the catalyst for revolutionary developments, even though US leaders denied direct involvement in events. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russia has rushed to fill the strategic vacuum, highlighted by Moscow’s rapid expansion of defense cooperation with Uzbekistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Despite the dramatic decline in its influence, the United States remains a powerful geopolitical force in Central Asia, underscored by the continuing presence of US forces at the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan. To keep the United States on the defensive, Russian planners have developed a multi-faceted blueprint to significantly expand Moscow’s strategic reach in Central Asia, as well as tighten tactical coordination with other regional players, especially China and India.
Underlying Russia’s regional plans for 2006 is a desire to significantly raise the profile of both the Russian military and the country’s defense industry. For example, Moscow revealed in December that it had sealed a deal with Uzbekistan to jointly produce 40 Il-76 transport planes for sale to China. Around the same time, Russia announced an agreement under which Russian and Indian troops would share an air base in Tajikistan.
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Russia takes an imperial step forward there and a step back in Europe. I wonder if someone has done the same analysis for China in the region?
Many are labeling Russia’s pressure on Ukraine to pay market prices for natural gas as “Cold War” tactics. Of course, the Ukrainian government is paying the full price for their anti-Russian rhetoric and pro-Western orientation. Russia is flexing the only muscles she has: natural resources. But, it’s not so much a message to the Ukraine as to the West. And it’s not so much “Cold War” as Realist geo-politics.
ReplyDeletePutin quickly realized that Russia only has one card to play in today’s world of growing demand for natural resources. Domestically, this realization became clear with the takeover of the Yukos oil company. Disguised as retribution for legal transgressions, Putin removed the threat of a western-oriented Yukos
by imprisoning its managers, and paved the way for a predictable government takeover of Russia’s oil industry. Today, it is not so clear what the rules of oil investment are (i.e. no foreigner shall hold majority stock in a Russian oil company), but it is very clear who makes the rules.
I wouldn't call it Cold War style, but it is definitely imperial in aim. The Great Russians can't let the Malorus - 'Little Russians' IE Ukrainians escape their 'rightful' place as part of Mother Russia. That Ukraine continues to ellude its reabsorption and Russia keeps demonstrating its weakness, only makes the Russians more angry.
ReplyDeleteTruthfully, Ukraine until needs to hang on for a while. Russia's demographics don't look so good. How could it when they have a TFR of 1.27. Even Ukraine has recovered from less than that to a TFR of 1.4 (and seemingly rising).
Are you a regular reader or a passer-by?
Hi, I was a passer-by, but plan on returning :-)
ReplyDeleteRussia definitely has plans to dominate the near-abroad. But I doubt its through absorption - thats just too far-fetched for today's reality. Russia dominating is a natural reality - as it does provide the region's natural resources, and the sheer size and might makes Russia a natural regional power.
Russian demographics are indeed daunting, however I would bet on the church getting involved (with a political push) in an anti-abortion campaign. Something like 60%+ of pregnacies are aborted!!! More importantly, the Muslim population is only growing. This is indeed scary to Russia, but there are no sights set on Ukraine or even Belarus, for that matter.
Plan on coming back :-)
I think that Russia's plans may, in fact, include absorption, at least of some parts of the Near-Abroad: the Slavic ones. The reason that I think that is that when I read about their view of the future and what went wrong with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it seems that they feel that Ukraine and Belarus, at least, and possibly Moldova, are really a part of Great Russia proper that was stolen away. Additionally, the talk of which part of the world will have a net in-migration that will counter that demographic nightmare, it's from Ukraine and Belarus.
ReplyDeleteTo me, it seems like the absorption of the Slavic xUSSR republics is a question of pretext, rather than desire...if they can get away with it. Putin overplayed his hand and played it far too soon. Imagine if the Baltic gas line had been in place when they played the gas card, then Ukraine would have been fscked and Europe would have been in a tighter situation too because Russia would ahve built up enough credibility in the mean time that the Europeans would have been more dependant on Russian energy.
There might be another time and place to do this. Yulia could easily give a pretext (*yoiks*) with her sharp tongue and overly zealous politics.
The *Stan xUSSR republics are going to be dominated through the security arrangements that Russia will make: I completely concur with you there. The question is, if through alienating the West and some of the treaty organizations Russia makes, that Russia might become another country's sockpuppet? The demographics seem to hint at such.
Anyways, welcome aboard if you read time and again. This isn't strictly a political blog. More its a blog of what interests me and politics happens to be one of them. Ukrainian politics happens to be one of those things for personal reasons. I make no pretentious claims to journalism: I work with computers for a living and dabble in a lot of other things. :)
If you do stick around, would you mind adding yourself to my Frappr Map?