Parliament fired the Cabinet Tuesday because of a new deal with Russia that nearly doubled what Ukraine pays for natural gas. Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov and the justice minister, however, said the vote was nonbinding and vowed that the current Cabinet would continue working.
"People just wanted to play around, this will have no effect," Yekhanurov told reporters.
"The Cabinet can be formed only after new elections on the basis of a parliamentary coalition, which must be formed by the parliament within a month after the election," Justice Minister Serhiy Holovaty said.
Russia and Ukraine last week ended a bruising public fight over the supply over natural gas to this ex-Soviet republic with a deal with nearly doubles the price of gas for Ukraine. Earlier, Yekhanurov defended the deal, calling it a "compromise" needed to prevent Ukraine from being deprived of gas supplies.
Lawmakers in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada voted 250-50 with two abstentions to fire Yekhanurov and his Cabinet, but required that the government continue work until a new Cabinet is appointed.
Political experts and analysts contacted by The Associated Press were divided over whether the parliament could fire Yekhanurov's government. Some experts said the parliament can dismiss only specific ministers, but not the whole Cabinet. Others said the Cabinet could be fired.
Read the rest here.
There are two asepcts to this. The first is not actually the gas war itself. This is, well, frankly, a constitutional crisis! Oy. Ukrainians. As if the Gas War wasn't enough, now they are going to go into a governmental crisis. Most likely some sort of compromise will be made that will allow the current Cabinet to function. It is always possible that the Duma and President's Cabinet will be unable to work something out...and that there will be a meltdown. It's not a high likelihood though, in my opinion. Worst case scenario would be the Clinton-Republican governmental standoff in the 1990s: not good, but the country survived easily. However, what happens after the elections will be even more interesting.
That very well may be the resumption of the Gas War! It all depends on which party ends up in the lead position. The constitutional reforms that were recently adopted make Ukraine far more a parliamentary democracy cast in the style of Europe than the presidential democracies like the US and (theoretically, or perhaps formerly?) Russia. If Timoshenko takes the Prime Minister position from her party taking the majority in the Duma, I fully expect that the Gas War will be resumed with a vengence! If Yuschkeno's party takes the Duma's majority, the Gas War will sit tight. If Yanukovich takes the majority, oy!, expect a whole lot of mess. I doubt that last one though.
While people have been upset with Yuschenko, the Gas War has made Russia's candidates look especially bad. If anything, it pushed the Ukrainians further into the European camp. It really, really pushed the Ukrainian people (as a whole) in that direction like a strap-on rocket booster. I don't want they were thinking, frankly, to make this work (Putin et al). It looks like a horrible miscalculation. That's a different discussion for a different time.
The question remains how far did the Russian actions push the Ukrainian people. Yes, it's turned them rather antiRussian at the moment, but did the results of the Gas War make people decide that they are rather ticked with Yuschenko? After all, he did end up with a compromise that almost doubled the cost of natural gas, verstehst? If it did push them too far and Ms Yulia can keep her sharp tongue from slitting her own electoral throat, expect her to win and resume teh gas war...in the spring and summer when she has more time to negotiate. Otherwise, if Yuschenko is able to present himself as having navigated as best as anyone< could have and the Ukrainian people buy it, then he'll clean up big time. The only real loser in all of this is Yanukovich. Sucks to be him. Or associated with him.
Either Yuschenko or Timoshenko are going to finish the Great Slavic Divorce. If Yuschenko wins, expect the Sevastopol base treaty comes up for review, it gets shelved. If Timoshenko wins, she'll prolly shred the treaty and burn it with the Gas War resolution. The key difference between the parties will be when the divorce continues: now, under Ms Yulia, or later when the treaties expire, under Mr Viktor.
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