Monday, July 31, 2006

Russia's Orientation to China

Russia and China discussed a long-term lease of one million hectares of Siberian forests as "a pilot project on joint use of forest resources," the Russian Natural Resources Ministry press service said in a statement on July 26. The project was considered at a meeting in Moscow between Boris Bolshakov, deputy head of the Russian Federal Forestry Agency (Rosleskhoz), and Li Yuchai, deputy head of China's State Forestry Administration.


First read the above link (China's getting to - possibly exclusively - exploit Siberia).

Then blend with my first 'War for the Eurasia Soul Footnote'.

Finally ponder the original conversation causing post.

Now consider the Russian demographics. Again.

Then consider how much of a dog's breakfast they've made of the CIS, it seems very unlikely, even with Ukraine's fracked up parlimanetary screw ups, that they will get the necessary population boost to make up for the their insanely shrinking population. That means that most likely the people doing the work in the Siberian forests will be Chinese. Makes sense, right?

Except if this is a pilot project, how many people will this employ? How many people will be employed by the full scale project? Will there be other projects like this? Like say, mining? Or the energy projects? Just how many Chinese are going to cross into Siberia?

It seems that some of the Russians are a little concerned too:


Nezavisimaya gazeta commented that the worst fears of Russia's left radicals over Chinese expansion in Russia appear to have come true. This "pilot project" could well be followed by other similar ventures, the daily wrote. The paper quoted Vasily Sadliy, head of the forestry department of Irkutsk region, as saying that Irkutsk authorities were negotiating forestry joint ventures with China (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 28).

The project is set to become a no-win situation for Russia, as there is hardly any point in swapping our pristine taiga for paper dollars or yuans, Komsomolskaya pravda commented. The would-be joint venture is almost certain to employ Chinese nationals, who are very unlikely to leave Siberia voluntarily, even after the expiration of the forest lease, the daily wrote (Komsomolskaya pravda, July 28).


However, since Putin's been backtracking on Russia's democratic progress, does it matter if people in Russia are unhappy with the Chinese in Siberia? Do the Russians voices really matter?

Just some thoughts. Something more profound in the future.

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