NATO decided Thursday not to put Georgia and Ukraine on track to join the alliance after vehement Russian opposition, but the alliance pledged that the strategically important Black Sea nations will become members one day.
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French and German concern over Russia's reaction dashed the two former Soviet republics' hopes of being granted a "membership action plan" that bring them into the alliance within the next five to 10 years.
So, in other words, expect them to fall back into the Russosphere. You have no idea how mad this makes me. other nations were granted a MAP when there were nontrivial, even a majority! against the accession to NATO. Then through education (NATO isn't going to make your country into a. slaves, b. a colony, or c. eat your babies) remarkably they came around to more than accepting, but rather supporting it in a big way.
Right when they needed a bone, the Western political forces of Ukraine just got a cold shoulder. A MAP isn't membership. A MAP is a plan and possibility of membership if conditions are met to a sufficient degree. Negotiating the MAP would take time. Implementing the MAP would take a lot longer. In that time education can happen. There's also nothing preventing a plebiscite at the end for the country to make up its mind before formally joining.
The Orangers needed a bone. One small bone! And Germany and France couldn't give it up. I hope the Orangers are going to be able to resist the backlash that's coming back home now. Ukrainians are already sore over the restrictions on them visiting or emigrating. This will be seen in the exact same light.
This is going to be bad for the Orangers. Mark my words.
It was my impression that the idea of NATO affiliation was very controversial among Ukrainians. Might this postponement not be for the best, if only by letting more people get used to the idea over time?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on where you are as to whether or not its controversial. Eastern Ukraine, yes. Black Sea Coastal Ukraine, yes. Western Ukraine, no. Central Ukraine, no.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that there is a hgue misunderstanding of what is involved with being a member of NATO. They seem to believe that it makes you, at best, a sock puppet of the United States. Both you Canadians and the French would definitely disagree with that sentiment!
If Russia continues to grow economically, at least in liquidity, it's possible it might try to buy its way into getting Ukraine back. If Europe continues to to hold Ukraine aside as a smelly garment, the Russians just might get it back.
Uh, whopping 30% of Ukrainians want to join to NATO. Long live democracy! What good does the NATO membership to the Ukrainians? An increased military budged (everyone ought to realize that the real reason of NATO's continuing existence is military industry), and a hostile neighbor. And an obligation to assist USA in its wars of aggression (do you really think that the Eastern Countries have such choice of freedom as the old Western democracies?).
ReplyDeleteIf Russia really is going to threaten Ukraine, nobody could do much anything. They've got the bomb. Lot's of them in fact. But others have it too. And they happen to be Russia's primary customers. An overtly aggressive Russia will soon find itself in economically wrecked if it scares its Western customers away. So, any military confrontation between the two countries is far-fetched.
And I don't think Moldova is a threat.
It is incredible to claim that joining NATO brings safety when its mere existence causes animosity. At the end of the Cold War Russians were promised that NATO won't expand into the territory of the former Soviet Union. Now we see who's trustworthy.
Will:
ReplyDeleteIf Russia continues to grow economically, at least in liquidity, it's possible it might try to buy its way into getting Ukraine back.
Is that really possible? Economic growth in Ukraine seems to be keeping apace with Russia, and Ukrainian national identity seems to be strong. Even if there was widespread economic penetration, this no mean means Ukraine's subordination to Russia than it would Canada's by the United States.
Anonymous:
If Russia really is going to threaten Ukraine, nobody could do much anything. They've got the bomb. Lot's of them in fact.
The Soviet Union had many more nuclear weapons during the Cold War. That didn't allow it to unilaterally threaten any state, even theoretically unaligned ones like Yugoslavia. Ukraine's fine. Georgia, now ...
It is incredible to claim that joining NATO brings safety when its mere existence causes animosity.
Not true, or at least not altogether true. It has brought security for the various countries which have joined it, both through the security guarantees and through the various modernizations required by NATO membership. If Russia was included, I'm sure it would be happy.
As for those promises, well, spheres of influence are nyekulturny regardless of the country maintaining them.