Russian Threats: Toothless Growlings or Real Problem?

Offended by NATO’s commitment to open the door for Georgian and Ukrainian membership (Bucharest Summit Declaration, April 3), Moscow is staging a show of indignation replete with new threats.

Putin used this tactic during the April 4 NATO-Russia Council meeting in Bucharest and again during his April 6 meeting with President George W. Bush in Sochi. On these occasions, Putin warned that if Georgia and Ukraine moved toward NATO membership, Russia might respond by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s secession from Georgia and by instigating a partition of Ukraine. According to a witness account, Putin told Bush that Ukraine was “not a real nation,” that much of its territory had been "given away" by Russia, and that Ukraine would “cease to exist as a state” if it joined NATO. In that case, Putin hinted, Russia would encourage secession of the Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine (Kommersant, April 7; Moscow Times, April 8).

The question is less whether or not the threats are effective in Kiev and Tbilisi. The question is whether or not they have resonance with the locals. I don't think it'll wash much with the Georgians, but who knows about Ukrainians of the East and Southeast. And what version they hear. After all when a friend, my family, and I were visiting Ukraine two years ago the rumor mill was that Ukraine and the US were at WAR! in Crimea when it was actually just the same annual exercise that had been going on for nearly a decade. That time though it was used as a way to rile the underinformed with malicious rumors. Part of the problem is that Ukraine lacks a solid, even semireliable method of getting news. Rumors and conspiracy theories are waaaay too popular there. The problem is, alas, there are actually some conspiracies that take place and it makes conspiracy theories the primary method of explanation when its unnecessary.

Aside for Ukrainian readers: as is said here in the West, Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

Back on topic, let's wait and see what the locals think. I'll have boots on ground info in a little over a month.