That Puerto Rican Referendum: Statehood at 61%

Yesterday was a historic day.  Obama held the presidency.  That other referendum I mentioned also took place.  The results are a bit complex, so here is a bit of background.  

Puerto Ricans held a two stage referendum.  The first stage asked if the voters wanted to change the status of the territory.  This was a simple yes or no question.  If there was more than 50% of the vote for 'yes' the second part of the referendum to matter.  

The second part of the referendum asked *IF* the status was to change, which of the following status categories would PR prefer.  The first is for statehood: would they want to become a state in the US like California, New Mexico or Louisiana.  The second option was for 'free associated state' this is the independence like what the old Pacific Trust Territories have.  Finally, there was outright independence.  

The results?  

As expected over fifty percent, almost 54% want to change the status of the island from territory to something else.  These are a combination of those that are pro statehood and pro independence.  Just over 46% want to stay a territory.  This caused the second half of the referendum to actually matter.

Also, as somewhat expected, if they had to change their status from territory, what is the preferred status?  Statehood, over 61%.  Getting very close to a supermajority.  The free associated state form of independence garnered over 33%, which is a blow to the Popular Democratic Party of Puerto Rico, which has been increasingly arguing for the unconstitutional 'enhanced commonwealth status' which was closest to the free associated state/independence.  Surprisingly, outright independence garnered over 5% of the vote, which is much higher than the nominal polling.

So, 61% would prefer becoming state.  Obama has promised to respect the results of the referendum and push for the status change.  Since he just won a second term, we will see what will happen.  He still has to deal with a Republican House and the so-called fiscal cliff, sequestration, that is making me itch with nervousness.  However, come next summer once those are resolved, he back a bill in congress to promote Puerto Rico to a state.

We may have a 51st state by November 2016.  That ought to shake up the mix a bit.

An interesting wrinkle to all of this is that the pro statehood governor of PR narrowly lost his seat.  Given how unpopular a lot of what he did was, it strikes me as very interesting too.  Also, the new governor may not push at all for the status change.  However, Congress and the Presidency may not care much at all and Congress holds the power in unincorporated territories.