The preliminary cost estimates are in the planned upgrade of the Ariane 5 launch vehicle and its Ariane 6 successor, and the one general conclusion can already be drawn:
Europe is in deep trouble.
European Space Agency (ESA) Director General Jean-Jacques Dordain said on Friday that it will cost 1 billion euros ($1.35 billion) for the Ariane 5 ME upgrade, which will allow the rocket to carry large payloads by 2018. The upgrade is needed to allow the rocket to keep up with the growth in the size of communications satellites, which Ariane 5 launches in pairs.
While that project is going on, it looks like Europe will have to find an addition 3 billion and 4 billion euros ($4 to $5.4 billion) to fund Ariane 6, which is set to enter service in 2021. The new rocket is being designed to launch single communications satellites into orbit for no more than 70 million euros ($94.7 million).
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