It seems that Kiev is going to concede Crimea to Russia. The government has been making plans for the removal of troops from Crimea. This is an acceptance the Ukrainian military is not in any shape to take on the Russians. Years of neglect compounded by active maleficence by Yanukovich have left a handful of troops capable of taking on the Russians. Even if they were super soldiers and killed 20 for every death, they would still be wiped out and Russia have plenty more troops.
The Russians are storming the Ukrainian ships which have been blockaded in the Ukrainian naval base at Sevastopol. Three corvettes have been taken as has a command ship.
Brigades of Ukrainian troops have been stationed near Donetsk and Lugansk. More at the crossings for Crimea.
There are continued provocations in the east. Faux protestors, Putin's tourists, are continuing to attempt to storm buildings and try to get the east to react like Crimea. This appears to be failing. More of them are being rounded up and arrested.
Ukraine is withdrawing from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The only way Ukraine will join the Eurasian Union at this point is after its conquest.
More sanctions are on their way, but the West's reaction has been tepid in many, many ways.
The US, Britain, etc will be conducting exercises with the Ukrainian Army in July. This follows the Polish Air Force in May.
More sanctions are on their way, but the West's reaction has been tepid in many, many ways.
The US, Britain, etc will be conducting exercises with the Ukrainian Army in July. This follows the Polish Air Force in May.
Will Putin annex Transdniestria next? Will he attempt to peel away the Ukrainian East and South?
Is the crisis easing, winding down? Or is it going to winding up and go boom?!
This is going to be rather more than an update. After talking with some friends, I am concerned on a couple different levels. The first is if there is not a solution found - assuming Putin feels the East and South are too much risk - in a couple administrations from now, the Ukrainians are going to go after Crimea in a spasm of revanchist anger. They will probably lose. 45 million people with what will be a probably recently rebuilt economy is not going to be a match for a petrochemical powered economy and 140 million population. Some method must be found to either remove Russia or have the Ukrainians hold onto what they have and accept the theft of their territory.
The first is to start arming the Ukrainians. Wait?! What?! Yes, by giving them the tools they need to defend themselves and the training, but not the equipment to make an offensive. Give them Stingers. Give them TOW and Javelin missiles. Bring them up to spec with NATO equipment. Even go as far as to give them war stock generation one M-1 tanks, the original model and M-1Is. We have some 4,000 of them. You might even want to station a brigade of some country's forces in Ukraine. Brit or French, to be honest. The US would be too provocative.
Then entice Russia into two actions. One, have them forgive the $3 billion loan they just gave. Then pay for Crimea. Compensate the displaced folks. Pay for the seized warships. I'd guess around $50 billion: this can wipe out Ukraine's debts and pour money into the economy. Russia can afford it.
The third method is for the European Union to lay out a path to Ukraine becoming a member. Make it strict. Make it doable. Make it a complete ascension. The Ukrainians will move heaven and earth for it.
With the European influence, with the compensation for Crimea and a feeling of real security, then perhaps Ukraine can be on the track it needs, it wants.
With the European influence, with the compensation for Crimea and a feeling of real security, then perhaps Ukraine can be on the track it needs, it wants.
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