Ukraine: Hard Boiled Frog

Events have been rapidly degrading in Donbass for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army appears to be retreating before a more Russian style comprehensive artillery barrage.  The Ukrianians have all but abandoned Lugansk.  They still hold the Donetsk airport.  For now.  Several Ukrainian boats were destroyed.

The Russians have been pushing on from Telmanove to Volnovakha.  They have pushed up the H15 highway to Kurakhove.  The Russians are pushing their way up the coast towards Mariupol to Shyrokyne from Novoazovsk.  They are likewise pushing from the Russian border to Shchastya in the Lugansk Oblast.

The Russians have been suffering heavy casualties, supposedly. A couple companies worth of paratroopers have been buried already. Some back in Pskov and some in Krasny Luch.

A massive armored column in Krasnodon.  Its flying russian colors and is acting as a cohesive unit.

Putin has been stating Ukraine needs to start talks with the rebels for the formation of the independent state of Novorussiya.  He has also stated he could take Kiev in two weeks and told the West not to mess with Russia because its a nuclear armed state.

The EU has threatened crippling sanctions.  Maybe.  Putin seems very unconcerned.

In the interesting development side, Rapid Trident, the military exercise between NATO and Ukraine is back on.  The United States will have a heavy battalion with 600 troops in Western Ukraine, replacing the planned airborne troops.  The Brits are sending paratroopers.  etc,  Yes, folks, NATO will be on Ukrainian territory in two weeks.

My speculation is Putin will push to take the whole of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts.  If Ukraine accepts the formation of Novorussiya (and/or annexation of the Donbass by Russia), the whole affair will stop there.  If they do not, we're likely to see the Russians push into and take the Kharkov, Zaporizka, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa Oblasts.  There might be a few more Oblasts eaten up, but I suspect not too many more.  Then he'll declare peace.