It turns out the Orion Project was closer to happening in some ways than has been publicly acknowledged. It seems if not for McNamara's people, the US Air Force was going to push through building a fleet of Orion spacecraft. At the center of it all was the ever infamous Generals Curtis LeMay and Thomas Power. Power went as far sign off on a requirement for a 'Strategic Earth Orbit Base' and LeMay pushed the civilian leadership of the US Air Force to get Orion added to the 1962 USAF budget for the tune of $1.36 Billion. As much as my space cadet side sorta wishes for it, the adult side of me is glad the Secretary of the Air Force Zuckert killed it and he did so because McNamara would have been against it.
That does make for an interesting what-if.
Let's say right after the Cuban Missile Crisis, McNamara gets hit by a car in DC. He's dead.
LeMay takes another crack at after McNamara is dead.
We'll handwave he gets it. We also handwave in the exception to the Partial Test Ban Treaty the US attempted to get for propulsion. Even so, the probable outcome of Orion getting funded in 1963 is it gets cancelled around 1968. Nixon comes on and, well, problem. They honestly need a decade worth to get an Orion working. This would probably end up like the MOL or Dynasoar.
LeMay would probably want to at least get a flight out before he retires. That took place in 1965. However, that was due to his hostility with McNamara who is in this Alternate Time Line (ATL) now dead. LeMay was initially a supporter of Nixon, so its possible with the different SecDef, LeMay could skip over the stupidity of running with Wallace and end up keeping his job for a time at least.
Even so, I bet he'd push for a first launch of an Orion in 1968. This would probably end up something like the 880 ton version. It becomes a space station, America's first. If it were up to me, I'd dump the propulsion module and let it fall into the Pacific. 300 tons of spacestation would be rather impressive. The ISS masses about 450 tons and Skylab was about 100 tons. It would be imaginable the space station would have twice the volume of Skylab. It would probably need a reboost or risk coming back into the atmosphere. The second Orion launch in 1972 of the full size (4,000 ton) version does the reboost.
With the launch of the 4,000 ton Orions, we see a new Orion launched each year from 1972 to 1978 and one last in 1981 (unmanned as a cargo haul, redesigned to larger mass as a one off). The militarized Orions would carry 12 orbital bombardment missiles of roughly the equivalent of the Polaris missile (call it 30 tons). Each of these would have 10 warheads. The remaining payload would have sufficient supplies and whatnot for 10 years of operation without resupply for the crew of 16 (open ended life support, about the best we could do at the time, requires 10 lbs/per person/day).
However, Orions cannot be left in LEO. They would be extremely vulnerable to a nuclear strike. This means placing them out at one of the LaGrange Points. L-1 is easiest to get to. So they go into a Halo Orbit at the L-1 point. Crew cycling would take place every year. An Orion would come down to LEO to dock with the space station. The 'acclimated' replacement crew would have been ferried up by 5 Saturn IBs. The crew rotating out would ride back down to the surface on the Apollo capsules. This would continue until an alternate Space Shuttle was developed. Given what we got from the space shuttle OTL, we'd probably see the USAF purchasing a total of 5 of them. These would compliment the 5 for NASA.
Five missions per year would be to the space station for personnel exchange for the Orions. Another five missions per year would be to reboost and resupply the aging space station.
With Carter or whomever takes over ultimately from the Nixon/Ford era, the Orion Program gets cancelled. Or rather new built ones do. The last three Orions built get retasked to be NASA spacecraft and unarmed. Prior to handing over to NASA, they do a supply run for the other Orions at the L-1 point. This would extend the Orion mission to 1992 minimum. However, when the resupply run is done, it is acknowledged the Orions will need to be decommissioned in 1992.
While there is a study and the beginning of a replacement done under Reagan - the Strategic Offensive Initiative - it gets canned by 1989 without building much hardware. Edward Teller had argued to place advanced weaponry on the Orions such as lasers and whatnot to counter the Soviet nuclear arsenal. He thought the next generation Orions could be built as strategic defense as well as offense. This muddied the waters and the program objectives and as the Cold War drew to a close, very few were interested in flying new Orions.
In 1992, the Orions were decommissioned. The Bush administration used the 500th Year Anniversary of Columbus' discovery of the Americas to do so in a spectacular war. Starting in 1988, Bush negotiated their withdrawal and the ban of nuclear weapons in space. NASA was tasked with reusing the Orions. These were not to be used as manned spacecraft, but rather as the first interstellar unmanned probes. The first four Orions would launch off to Alpha Centauri (133 years to arrive), Barnard's Star (187 years), epsilon Eridani (330 years) and tau Ceti (400 years). The fifth weaponized Orion was stripped of its thrust plate and its pulse bombs transferred to the NASA Orions. It remained in place at the L-1 point as a space station and refurbished to that end (christened Columbus Station).
The actual nuclear weapons we deweaponized and transported back to Earth under treaty obligatory supervision. Under the treaty the plutonium was rebuilt as pulse bombs for the NASA Orions under Russian observation. This would provide enough fuel for another two full loads. However, it was agreed after this, nonnuclear or rather non-plutonium using propulsion would have to be used.
In the mean time...
NASA in 1980 used one of its Orions to build the first permanent Moon base similar to Operation Deep Freeze. The last three Saturn Vs were not put out to pasture or used for Skylab, but to supply the Orion's mission. After the initial push a base of 40 people was regularly resupplied from Earth. The base, at the lip of the Shackleton Crater near the south pole has grown and is still operational today. However, after 1982, no Orions were involved in the base.
On 1982, the two manned NASA Orions launched on their first mission to Mars. Two carried carried 250 ton crewed landers (and 500 tons of fuel for another landing and take off: they were chemical rockets) which had been brought up by the unmanned Orion in 1981, the last retasked, rebuilt unmanned Orion. These landers were SSTOs...Martian SSTOs, much easier than on Earth. Six sites were surveyed on the first mission. The famous picture of the astronaut saluting the Viking probe and the associated group picture of the 20 astronauts around it became quite famous.
The second Mars Mission took place in 1984. It followed a similar pattern to the first mission, surveying another six sites. A third mission took place in 1986 doing likewise.
In 1988, Operation Ares was launched and built a Martian base. This was done near the Valles Marineris. An 800 ton unmanned cargo lander was dropped from one of the Orions and the other brought another 200 ton unmanned lander as well. The crewed lander put down and they spent the next 3 months building out the base. A crew of 20 was left behind for the next two years. It would be the last time both Orions would go to Mars. Resupply missions to Mars would take place every two years, but one only have one Orion at a time. The last Orion run to Mars would be in 2001. The Mars base was semi self sufficient at that time and supported by other means for the rest.
In April 1993, the second Orion would embark for Jupiter for a 18 month mission (galileo flew in 1982 on time). Landings would take place on three of the Galilean Moons: twice on Europa and once on Callisto and Ganymede. A second expedition would be mounted in October 1996. And a final one in 2000.
The last mission for the Orions would be to Saturn. It was a stretch. They launched in 2005. They would land on Titan and Enceladus; however, the crews were much smaller than the Mars or Jupiter missions, totally only 12 each. The Orions would return to earth in 2008 where they would be decommissioned at Columbus Station. Their thrust plates would be destroyed under treaty obligation. The rest habitable sections of the ships would be remodeled and used as part of Columbus station.
Since there was no good replacement for them in the near term, it would not be until 2038 when the first laser implosion fusion powered ships were launched until their capability was replaced.
The Lunar Base by their end had an international population of about 1,000: multiple nations were landing and using the lunar base for science and exploration. There are no native selenites.
Mars has a population of 203. OTOH, there are three native born Martians.
We'll handwave he gets it. We also handwave in the exception to the Partial Test Ban Treaty the US attempted to get for propulsion. Even so, the probable outcome of Orion getting funded in 1963 is it gets cancelled around 1968. Nixon comes on and, well, problem. They honestly need a decade worth to get an Orion working. This would probably end up like the MOL or Dynasoar.
LeMay would probably want to at least get a flight out before he retires. That took place in 1965. However, that was due to his hostility with McNamara who is in this Alternate Time Line (ATL) now dead. LeMay was initially a supporter of Nixon, so its possible with the different SecDef, LeMay could skip over the stupidity of running with Wallace and end up keeping his job for a time at least.
Even so, I bet he'd push for a first launch of an Orion in 1968. This would probably end up something like the 880 ton version. It becomes a space station, America's first. If it were up to me, I'd dump the propulsion module and let it fall into the Pacific. 300 tons of spacestation would be rather impressive. The ISS masses about 450 tons and Skylab was about 100 tons. It would be imaginable the space station would have twice the volume of Skylab. It would probably need a reboost or risk coming back into the atmosphere. The second Orion launch in 1972 of the full size (4,000 ton) version does the reboost.
With the launch of the 4,000 ton Orions, we see a new Orion launched each year from 1972 to 1978 and one last in 1981 (unmanned as a cargo haul, redesigned to larger mass as a one off). The militarized Orions would carry 12 orbital bombardment missiles of roughly the equivalent of the Polaris missile (call it 30 tons). Each of these would have 10 warheads. The remaining payload would have sufficient supplies and whatnot for 10 years of operation without resupply for the crew of 16 (open ended life support, about the best we could do at the time, requires 10 lbs/per person/day).
However, Orions cannot be left in LEO. They would be extremely vulnerable to a nuclear strike. This means placing them out at one of the LaGrange Points. L-1 is easiest to get to. So they go into a Halo Orbit at the L-1 point. Crew cycling would take place every year. An Orion would come down to LEO to dock with the space station. The 'acclimated' replacement crew would have been ferried up by 5 Saturn IBs. The crew rotating out would ride back down to the surface on the Apollo capsules. This would continue until an alternate Space Shuttle was developed. Given what we got from the space shuttle OTL, we'd probably see the USAF purchasing a total of 5 of them. These would compliment the 5 for NASA.
Five missions per year would be to the space station for personnel exchange for the Orions. Another five missions per year would be to reboost and resupply the aging space station.
With Carter or whomever takes over ultimately from the Nixon/Ford era, the Orion Program gets cancelled. Or rather new built ones do. The last three Orions built get retasked to be NASA spacecraft and unarmed. Prior to handing over to NASA, they do a supply run for the other Orions at the L-1 point. This would extend the Orion mission to 1992 minimum. However, when the resupply run is done, it is acknowledged the Orions will need to be decommissioned in 1992.
While there is a study and the beginning of a replacement done under Reagan - the Strategic Offensive Initiative - it gets canned by 1989 without building much hardware. Edward Teller had argued to place advanced weaponry on the Orions such as lasers and whatnot to counter the Soviet nuclear arsenal. He thought the next generation Orions could be built as strategic defense as well as offense. This muddied the waters and the program objectives and as the Cold War drew to a close, very few were interested in flying new Orions.
In 1992, the Orions were decommissioned. The Bush administration used the 500th Year Anniversary of Columbus' discovery of the Americas to do so in a spectacular war. Starting in 1988, Bush negotiated their withdrawal and the ban of nuclear weapons in space. NASA was tasked with reusing the Orions. These were not to be used as manned spacecraft, but rather as the first interstellar unmanned probes. The first four Orions would launch off to Alpha Centauri (133 years to arrive), Barnard's Star (187 years), epsilon Eridani (330 years) and tau Ceti (400 years). The fifth weaponized Orion was stripped of its thrust plate and its pulse bombs transferred to the NASA Orions. It remained in place at the L-1 point as a space station and refurbished to that end (christened Columbus Station).
The actual nuclear weapons we deweaponized and transported back to Earth under treaty obligatory supervision. Under the treaty the plutonium was rebuilt as pulse bombs for the NASA Orions under Russian observation. This would provide enough fuel for another two full loads. However, it was agreed after this, nonnuclear or rather non-plutonium using propulsion would have to be used.
In the mean time...
NASA in 1980 used one of its Orions to build the first permanent Moon base similar to Operation Deep Freeze. The last three Saturn Vs were not put out to pasture or used for Skylab, but to supply the Orion's mission. After the initial push a base of 40 people was regularly resupplied from Earth. The base, at the lip of the Shackleton Crater near the south pole has grown and is still operational today. However, after 1982, no Orions were involved in the base.
On 1982, the two manned NASA Orions launched on their first mission to Mars. Two carried carried 250 ton crewed landers (and 500 tons of fuel for another landing and take off: they were chemical rockets) which had been brought up by the unmanned Orion in 1981, the last retasked, rebuilt unmanned Orion. These landers were SSTOs...Martian SSTOs, much easier than on Earth. Six sites were surveyed on the first mission. The famous picture of the astronaut saluting the Viking probe and the associated group picture of the 20 astronauts around it became quite famous.
The second Mars Mission took place in 1984. It followed a similar pattern to the first mission, surveying another six sites. A third mission took place in 1986 doing likewise.
In 1988, Operation Ares was launched and built a Martian base. This was done near the Valles Marineris. An 800 ton unmanned cargo lander was dropped from one of the Orions and the other brought another 200 ton unmanned lander as well. The crewed lander put down and they spent the next 3 months building out the base. A crew of 20 was left behind for the next two years. It would be the last time both Orions would go to Mars. Resupply missions to Mars would take place every two years, but one only have one Orion at a time. The last Orion run to Mars would be in 2001. The Mars base was semi self sufficient at that time and supported by other means for the rest.
In April 1993, the second Orion would embark for Jupiter for a 18 month mission (galileo flew in 1982 on time). Landings would take place on three of the Galilean Moons: twice on Europa and once on Callisto and Ganymede. A second expedition would be mounted in October 1996. And a final one in 2000.
The last mission for the Orions would be to Saturn. It was a stretch. They launched in 2005. They would land on Titan and Enceladus; however, the crews were much smaller than the Mars or Jupiter missions, totally only 12 each. The Orions would return to earth in 2008 where they would be decommissioned at Columbus Station. Their thrust plates would be destroyed under treaty obligation. The rest habitable sections of the ships would be remodeled and used as part of Columbus station.
Since there was no good replacement for them in the near term, it would not be until 2038 when the first laser implosion fusion powered ships were launched until their capability was replaced.
The Lunar Base by their end had an international population of about 1,000: multiple nations were landing and using the lunar base for science and exploration. There are no native selenites.
Mars has a population of 203. OTOH, there are three native born Martians.
Such a fascinating look at the possibilities. That would be a fun time line to live in, for sure. Regardless of (those super cool if insane to try) Orions or not, we as a species do need to get a similar status of space expansion. I hope we can do it, but politics.
ReplyDeleteWe may get to Mars and such. The problem is we have not successfully convinced many. They like it, but...its a hard sell when someone has money problems, medical problems or what have you.
ReplyDelete