I've been working like crazy on my day job (wrapping it up) and the business. I've taken some time to do some writing here and there. About four of you get subjected to long writing bits which will, someday, come to public light. However, between meetings and stitching back together supercomputers and negotiating the travails of the rocketry business, I've been working on crazy thoughts for this blog. The quickies, I post PDQ (re UCLASS as the F-14 replacement, the MC Perry class, etc). Some take a lot of work (what to do about the robopocalypse). Some are in the middle (next year in nauvoo or the US actually built Orions for LeMay). However, I did promise a return to the Robopocalypse and what to do about it. I'm working on it, but its taking time. Research can do that. However, I wanted to return to an alternate history post in the mean time.
In 1995, the world nearly imploded. Ok, a bit of an overstatement for most of the world, it could have been the apocalypse for Canada. As anyone who was half way aware of the world around us knows, Quebec had a referendum to seek independence from Canada. It failed by an incredibly small margin and unlike our own inverse equivalent, Puerto Rico, the independence movement has since collapsed.
This is how the voting actually went. The margin was 58k votes and there were 86k votes considered invalid. Talk about what could have been a Bush-Gore moment!
So, what if.
Let's say for the moment 90% of the invalid votes were actually valid and 75% of those were pro Independence. Even with the 25% of those being pro Unity, the total margin which Unity stays ahead is now down to 19k. For the rest of the vote, let's assume another .6% of the electorate shows up. We'll assume something stupid happened at the Unity Rally just days before and the secessionists exploited it. And, lo, we get a margin of 11k votes for Quebec Separatism.
Independent Quebec in Purple
So what happens? Immediately, probably not a lot, to be honest. This is Canada we're talking about, not the US and the Slaver's Revolt. There will be tense moments, but I doubt there will be fighting. In fact, what's likely to happen is Canada will attempt to make concessions and with those concessions request a new referendum. The Quebecker are likely to not want to repeat the vote. They'll feel they have their victory and, damnit, they're moving ahead. My guess is the dance lasts 3 1/2 years, from 1995 to early 1999. The Canadians then shift gears when the Quebecois are getting set to declare full independence on January 1st, 2000.
Through the treaty, the Canadians keep Nord-de-Quebec and the scattered southern bits which voted 'No.' In exchange, the Quebecois get Montreal and Canadian support with the US with regards to joining NAFTA (Clinton had been planning on stalling whether or not to let an independent Quebec join) and NATO.
Nord-du-Quebec would probably rename itself. Historically, it had been called Ungava, so let's use that. It's admitted as a province of the rump Canada. The eastern most bits of loyalist Quebec get absorbed by New Brunswick the southern most by Ontario with a possible land bridge negotiated by Canada to link the eastern of the two southern enclaves.
Bouchard becomes PM of Quebec and stays there until 2008, when he retires. The economy isn't great, but it survives.
Canada takes a hit, economically and in confidence. Though there are those who state this is actually for the better. Rather than growth rates of 1.7, 4.3, 4.1 and 5.0 percent from 1996 to 1999, we end up seeing a growth of far more modest growth of half that for 1997 through 1999. Then in 2000, Canada takes a hit from 15 to 20% of its economy declaring independence. The next four years are probably going to modest growth.
In all likelihood, this is the 'end' of the story. There's an independent Quebec which has a troublesome relationship with Canada and, if Bush still wins in 2000, may have a pro-US stance, and may get that reciprocated. You might even see a Quebec battalion participating in Iraq.
However, we can make this worse for Canada.
Unbeknownst to the world, except a few western Canadian capitals and perhaps the NSA, the western provinces, with Saskatchewan taking the lead, considered their options if Quebec declared independence. One of those options was to form their own independent country. Another might have been to join the US.
Yup. That deserves a blink tag.
Interestingly, the Maritime Provinces were openly considering joining the US. If the three western provinces are going to negotiate with the US to join, then the Maritimes are likely to as well. We have three provinces negotiating with the Washington while Ottawa is trying to keep Quebec in and the Yankees out. For the sake of timing, let's say the Western Provinces and the Maritimes wait through 1997 before they commit treason, ahem, contract Washington. Both are going to request they become full states and definitely none of that territory crap.
Clinton is going to jump on this. This could be his legacy: adding 6 more states to the US voluntarily. woo! However, his relationship with Gingrich and the Republicans is going to make this messy. On the flipside, the negotiations would not happen over night. The Lewinsky stupidity will have blown over by the time the negotiations are done. I suspect he'd submit the treaty to Congress in the beginning of 2000.
Because its an election year, this is going to get debated to death and become an election issue. Republicans in the Senate are going to have a hard time with this one. At least 5 of the new states are going to be really blue and while Alberta might be the Canadian Texas, its going to be more purple than blue. It might even..hiss! taint the Republican Party. The Democrats are going to see this as the way to blue the nation, or at least the Congress and Senate for a long time to come.
There's a slim chance that if Bush comes out against the treaty or at least neutral it might push Gore clearly over the top. It might also influence one or more races in the Senate; however, the only place it might have made a difference as far as I can tell is in the Virginia race (robb v allen)...but doubtful then. The best case scenario would be Gore's Senate would have 51 Democrats. He needs 67 to pass a treaty, so either he's going to go do some horse trading or ask help from friends across the aisle or some combination.
The treaty may then get postponed until 2006 based on the elections in the Senate since. However, it runs the risk of getting scuttled by the Canadians then. Why wait 7 years?! If its going to happen, it'll need to be between 2000 and 2002. So let's say he pulls it off.
Canada in Red. Quebec in Purple. The US in White.
In 2004, 6 new states are added. The Senate now has 62 Senators and the House, until the next Census, has 12 new Congress critters. The US gets a democratic Senate for a long, long time. Or it derails the Tea Party. This will either force the Republicans into falling into being a regional party faster or to change their politics.
Knock-on effects. Canada is purely an Atlantic and Arctic nation. Her diplomacy will change. She may reach out to the EU then. The portion of Quebec which voted against seceding from Canada countersecedes again from New Brunswick when it publicly states its trying to join the US. What this new enclave is called, I have no idea (Saint Lawrence? Laurentia?). Ungava and this new enclave are two new provinces. This brings the total of Canada 5 provinces and 3 territories. Canada becomes even more Ontario centric.
However, this all assumes Manitoba doesn't come along for the ride with the three western provinces. If she does, then the outcome for Canada could be worse. I can see a remote possibility Nunavut, Yukon, the NW Territories, Ungava (maybe) and Greenland might make common cause. It'd be an odd and interesting country to arise if so. And that wildly unlikely thing happened, you'd see Ungava split again and Ontario, Southern Ungava (or whatever the Cree name would be), a land corridor to Labrador & New Foundland plus their new enclave in ex Quebec being all that's left of Canada: that'd do really weird things to its economy...and make them even more friendly to Americans (note sarcasm tag).
So, Canada, be glad there were not 60k more votes for Quebec. America, lament the chance to completely screw with the world order. again. Quebec...well, most of you are probably more Canadian now than ever. So be glad.
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