To me, it had seemed things were cooling down across the contact line despite the build on the Russian side. Shirokyne has largely become passive. Numerous places had become quieter in general. The number of ceasefire violations seemed to be down. Gorlovka was getting its water fixed. etc.
There have been exceptions: ironically, just outside of Gorlovka has been a pretty long, ongoing battle. There are reports of gunfire rather than just artillery. Donetsk proper also has a lot of artillery shelling to and from the villages ringing to the West. There have been claims of multiple clashes in Maryinka again, but little supporting evidence past rumors.
The real scary part has been with the stupid Right Sector and its protests. This has been winding down. Whatever force they had is nearly spent, or so it seems. If this is the case, I am relieved.
Even so there are/were frightening signs. The OSCE on two separate occasions and two different places observed two different brigade sized formations using their drones on the Donnie Reb side of the contact line. They also observed very large exercises well behind the lines as well in the LNR. Even so, the Ukrainians are exercising as well, getting ready for come-what-may (which have paid off at least as we saw in Maryinka). So what's the big deal? Would Putin risk his slowly thawing position for a stab at Ukraine again?
The answer might, in fact, be 'yes,' he's going to. The US State Department issued travel advisory for Crimea and the Donbass. If you're American, they stated, split now. The situation has become volatile. huh? Why now? What's changed since January? Something seems off and odd. Did they see the Donnie Rebs finally ready for their offensive? Or...?
The change in stance, after the nonhappenings of the 15th, is a huge surprise.
As always, let's see what goes down. It may be, with the arrival of another convoy, the DNR/LNR have the supplies they need to take it to the UAF. We'll see in about 24 to 48 hours, I'd speculate, if anything in the near future. Early mornings before the sunrises, but not too early. The sun in the faces of the enemy seems to be a DNR tactic.
So strange; wonder what they are seeing that we aren't privy to. Guess it could be a "lull before the storm" pull back and regrouping ahead of something major.
ReplyDeleteUkrainian President Petro Poroshenko is claiming (as of yesterday) that, according to military intelligence, a full Russian invasion is imminent any time within the next few days along three points of the contact line. Dunno how much of that is just fear mongering to keep up population support, or if someone intercepted some communiques on the Russian side.
I hope it all comes to nothing. The Ukrainians have suffered enough. But when the State Department issues that sort of warning, they seem usually right in warning the worst is about to come.
Well, starting to get reports of heavy shelling hitting Donetsk.
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