A Second Paper Stating Planet Nine is at Aphelion

Finding Planet Nine: a Monte Carlo approach

Authors:

de la Fuente Marcos et al

Abstract:

Planet Nine is a hypothetical planet located well beyond Pluto that has been proposed in an attempt to explain the observed clustering in physical space of the perihelia of six extreme trans-Neptunian objects or ETNOs. The predicted approximate values of its orbital elements include a semimajor axis of 700 au, an eccentricity of 0.6, an inclination of 30 degrees, and an argument of perihelion of 150 degrees. Searching for this putative planet is already under way. Here, we use a Monte Carlo approach to create a synthetic population of Planet Nine orbits and study its visibility statistically in terms of various parameters and focusing on the aphelion configuration. Our analysis shows that, if Planet Nine exists and is at aphelion, it might be found projected against one out of four specific areas in the sky. Each area is linked to a particular value of the longitude of the ascending node and two of them are compatible with an apsidal antialignment scenario. In addition and after studying the current statistics of ETNOs, a cautionary note on the robustness of the perihelia clustering is presented.

Brown & Batygin Propose Planet Nine is at Aphelion at ~30 degree to the Ecliptic

Observational constraints on the orbit and location of Planet Nine in the outer solar system

Authors:

Brown et al

Abstract:

We use an extensive suite of numerical simulations to constrain the mass and orbit of Planet Nine, the recently proposed perturber in a distant eccentric orbit in the outer solar system. We compare our simulations to the observed population of aligned eccentric high semimajor axis Kuiper belt objects and determine which simulation parameters are statistically compatible with the observations. We find that only a narrow range of orbital elements can reproduce the observations. In particular, the combination of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and mass of Planet Nine strongly dictates the semimajor axis range of the orbital confinement of the distant eccentric Kuiper belt objects. Allowed orbits, which confine Kuiper belt objects with semimajor axis beyond 230 AU, have perihelia roughly between 200 and 350 AU, semimajor axes between 300 and 900 AU, and masses of approximately 10 Earth masses. Orbitally confined objects also generally have orbital planes similar to that of the planet, suggesting that the planet is inclined approximately 30 degrees to the ecliptic. We compare the allowed orbital positions and estimated brightness of Planet Nine to previous and ongoing surveys which would be sensitive to the planet's detection and use these surveys to rule out approximately two-thirds of the planet's orbit. Planet Nine is likely near aphelion with an approximate brightness of 22 less than V less than 25. At opposition, its motion, mainly due to parallax, can easily be detected within 24 hours.

Potential Blackbody Radiation From Planet Nine

Blackbody Radiation from Isolated Neptunes

Authors:

Ginzburg et al

Abstract:

Recent analyses of the orbits of some Kuiper Belt objects hypothesize the presence of an undiscovered Neptune-size planet at a very large separation from the Sun. The energy budget of Neptunes on such distant orbits is dominated by the internal heat released by their cooling rather than solar irradiation (making them effectively "isolated"). The blackbody radiation that these planets emit as they cool may provide the means for their detection. Here we use an analytical toy model to study the cooling and radiation of isolated Neptunes. This model can translate a detection (or a null detection) to a constraint on the size and composition of the hypothesized "Planet Nine". Specifically, the thick gas atmosphere of Neptune-like planets serves as an insulating blanket which slows down their cooling. Therefore, a measurement of the blackbody temperature, Teff∼50K, at which a Neptune emits can be used to estimate the mass of its atmosphere, Matm. Explicitly, we find the relation Teff∝M1/12atm. Despite this weak relation, a measurement of the flux at the Wien tail can constrain the atmospheric mass, at least to within a factor of a few, and provide useful limits to possible formation scenarios of these planets. Finally, we constrain the size and composition of Planet Nine by combining our model with the null results of recent all-sky surveys.

Limits to Planet Nine

Evolution and Magnitudes of Candidate Planet Nine

Authors:

Linder et al

Abstract:

Context.

Given the recently renewed interest in a possible additional major body in the outer Solar System, the thermodynamic evolution of such an object was studied, assuming that it is a smaller version of Uranus and Neptune. Aims. We have modeled the temporal evolution of the radius, temperature, intrinsic luminosity, and the black body spectrum of distant ice giants. The aim is to provide also estimates of the magnitudes in different bands to assess the object's detectability.

Methods.

Simulations of the cooling and contraction were conducted for ice giants with masses of 5, 10, 20, and 50 Mearth containing 10, 14, 21, and 37 % H/He in mass that are located at 280, 700, and 1120 AU from the Sun. The core composition was varied from purely rocky to purely icy as well as 50% rock and 50% ice. The atmospheric opacity was set to 1, 50, and 100 times solar metallicity.

Results.

We find for the nominal 10 Mearth planet at 700 AU at the current age of the Solar System an effective temperature of 47 K, much more than the equilibrium temperature of about 10 K, a radius of 3.7 Rearth, and an intrinsic luminosity of 0.006 Ljupiter. It has estimated apparent magnitudes of Johnson V, R, I, L, N, Q of 21.7, 21.2, 20.8, 20.1, 19.7, and 11.4, and WISE W1-W4 magnitudes of 20.1, 20.0, 19.5, and 10.4. The Q and W4 band and other observation longward of ~13 microns pick up the intrinsic flux.

Conclusions.

If candidate Planet 9 has a significant H/He layer and an efficient energy transport in the interior, then its luminosity is dominated by the intrinsic contribution, making it a self-luminous planet. At a likely position on its orbit near the aphelion, we estimate for a mass of 5, 10, 20, and 50 Mearth a V magnitude from the reflected light of 24.2, 23.7, 23.2, and 22.5 and a Q magnitude from the intrinsic radiation of 15.6, 12.4, 9.8, 6.2. The latter would probably have been detected by past surveys.

Is There a Hidden Neptune Class Planet Out Past the Kuiper Belt?

EVIDENCE FOR A DISTANT GIANT PLANET IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM

Authors:

Konstantin Batygin and Michael E. Brown

Abstract:

Recent analyses have shown that distant orbits within the scattered disk population of the Kuiper Belt exhibit an unexpected clustering in their respective arguments of perihelion. While several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this alignment, to date, a theoretical model that can successfully account for the observations remains elusive. In this work we show that the orbits of distant Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) cluster not only in argument of perihelion, but also in physical space. We demonstrate that the perihelion positions and orbital planes of the objects are tightly confined and that such a clustering has only a probability of 0.007% to be due to chance, thus requiring a dynamical origin. We find that the observed orbital alignment can be maintained by a distant eccentric planet with mass gsim10 m⊕ whose orbit lies in approximately the same plane as those of the distant KBOs, but whose perihelion is 180° away from the perihelia of the minor bodies. In addition to accounting for the observed orbital alignment, the existence of such a planet naturally explains the presence of high-perihelion Sedna-like objects, as well as the known collection of high semimajor axis objects with inclinations between 60° and 150° whose origin was previously unclear. Continued analysis of both distant and highly inclined outer solar system objects provides the opportunity for testing our hypothesis as well as further constraining the orbital elements and mass of the distant planet.

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Could Jupiter or Saturn Have Ejected a Fifth Giant Planet?

Could Jupiter or Saturn Have Ejected a Fifth Giant Planet?

Authors:

Cloutier et al

Abstract:

Models of the dynamical evolution of the early solar system following the dispersal of the gaseous protoplanetary disk have been widely successful in reconstructing the current orbital configuration of the giant planets. Statistically, some of the most successful dynamical evolution simulations have initially included a hypothetical fifth giant planet, of ice giant mass, which gets ejected by a gas giant during the early solar system's proposed instability phase. We investigate the likelihood of an ice giant ejection event by either Jupiter or Saturn through constraints imposed by the current orbits of their wide-separation regular satellites Callisto and Iapetus respectively. We show that planetary encounters that are sufficient to eject an ice giant, often provide excessive perturbations to the orbits of Callisto and Iapetus making it difficult to reconcile a planet ejection event with the current orbit of either satellite. Quantitatively, we compute the likelihood of reconciling a regular Jovian satellite orbit with the current orbit of Callisto following an ice giant ejection by Jupiter of ~ 42% and conclude that such a large likelihood supports the hypothesis of a fifth giant planet's existence. A similar calculation for Iapetus reveals that it is much more difficult for Saturn to have ejected an ice giant and reconcile a Kronian satellite orbit with that of Iapetus (likelihood ~ 1%), although uncertainties regarding the formation of Iapetus, on its unusual orbit, complicates the interpretation of this result.