Yanukovich to NATO: Nyet...for now

Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s September 13-14 announcement in Brussels, removing Ukraine from consideration for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), was entirely predictable (see EDM, August 7, September 12). In all its aspects, including its technical breach of Ukraine’s constitution, which empowers the president to conduct foreign and security policies, Yanukovych’s announcement is an inescapable result of the internal political situation in Ukraine at the present stage. However, it is not the government’s final word on this issue, and it may prove to be a temporary detour on the road toward an eventual MAP, rather than a U-turn from it.

One could hope, but it reall depends on what happens this winter. If Yanukovich can pull off keeping Russia from pulling Ukraien over a barrel over gas prices this year, then he may make the 'nyet' to NATO permanent. Unfortunately, Ukrainians are very afraid of NATO. It's almost irrational, but they seem to think if they join NATO they are at athe beck and call of the United States. I seem to believe that Germany and France would beg to differ on that, but for some reason that I cannot fathom Ukrainians do have the belief set in stone. Ole Yanukovich is going to play this to the max. However, if he flubs it this winter as expected - no one is going to be in a good position wrt the gas issues this winter IMO - then the NATO acesnion may proceed after the next election.