India Given Headache...by Russia

It does seem that India will have to downsize its big-power dreams in Central Asia. Its plan to deploy aircraft at the base at Ayni in Tajikistan is facing opposition from an unexpected quarter - Russia.

Ayni, located 10 kilometers from the Tajik capital Dushanbe, was used by the Soviets during the 1980s to support their military operations in Afghanistan. Following their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Soviets left Ayni and the base fell into a dilapidated condition.

In 2002, India undertook renovation of the base under a bilateral defense agreement with the Tajiks. It spent over US$1.1 million renovating the base: extending and re-laying its runway, and constructing three aircraft hangars, an air-traffic control tower and the base's perimeter fencing.

But India's interest in renovating Ayni is not just about making the base usable. It has been keen on setting up a military outpost there.

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A base at Ayni would provide India with a platform from which it could respond rapidly in the event of threats to its interests in the region. It may be recalled that when an Indian Airlines flight from Kathmandu in Nepal to Delhi was hijacked to Kandahar in Afghanistan in December 1999, India was unable to respond effectively.

An outpost at Ayni would provide muscle to India's ambitions of extending its strategic reach into Central Asia, a region that is volatile and resource rich.

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The Russians, it seems, are pressuring the Tajiks to not only refuse India permission to deploy at Ayni but also deny it access to the base. The Russian obstruction has come as a bit of a surprise to India, especially since Moscow had earlier given its nod. In fact, Russia, Tajikistan and India had also informally agreed they would share command and control over the base, holding it by rotation. India and Russia had also agreed to jointly maintain the base.

Now Russia is feeling the fact that they are a sliding power and others are rising. The US still stands at the forefront. India and China are on the rise. Holy Roman Europe, ahem, I mean European Union has become very attractive to Ukraine. Russia will continue to decline, but will remain a PITA to the end. Or at least until they are China's satellite.