Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Cameron's Referendum on Britain in the EU: Should we Stay or Should We Go?

Britain's prime minister said Wednesday he will offer citizens a vote on whether to leave the European Union if his party wins the next election, prompting warnings from fellow member states about the soundness of such a move.

Claiming that public disillusionment with the 27-nation EU is "at an all-time high," David Cameron used a long-awaited speech in central London to say that the terms of Britain's membership in the bloc should be revised and the country's citizens should have a say.

Cameron proposed Wednesday that his Conservative Party renegotiate the U.K.'s relationship with the European Union if it wins the next general election, expected in 2015.

"Once that new settlement has been negotiated, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice to stay in the EU on these new terms. Or come out altogether," Cameron said. "It will be an in-out referendum."
My guess is that Britain will stay in, especially since the so-called ' 51st state option' (or hopefully 52nd) has been seriously downplayed by the current administration.  Depending on how long the negotiations take for the EU and Britain, the referendum may not take place until the next US presidential administration.  That may a change in policy.  I have doubts on that, whether the new administration is Republican or Democrat: its too useful to have a strong pro-US voice in the EU.

If the Brits did leave the EU, I have to wonder if that might be the catalyst to cause the Scots to split with the UK and go it alone.  *IF* the Brits as a whole left and the Scots seceded, would our special relationship with an EU member shift north to Scotland?  Or back to Germany like it was to some extent under Clinton?  The latter I suspect.  However, I cannot say for certain.  I'm a techie with interests in this sort of thing rather than an expert.

No comments: