Tuesday, December 10, 2013

China's Rationale for the Unilaterally Declared ADIZ

East Asia and the U.S. had better get used to this sort of thing. China's heavy-handed declaration of an unusually demanding air defense identification zone (ADIZ) is only one in a series of moves in which the country will gradually try to exert control over its maritime approaches. Worryingly, it may also be an early example of China's Communist Party contriving to raise international tension as a means of rallying popular support at home.

Just about everything encourages China to be more assertive in neighboring waters, from its mistrustful, sometimes hostile view of the outside world to its domestic politics, rising strength and growing nationalism—and, not least, Japan's refusal to face up to its atrocious pre-1945 behavior.

Commercial air services are running normally through the ADIZ, which covers much of the East China Sea, including islands and a reef disputed by China, Japan and South Korea. There is no disruption even of flights by Japanese airlines, which are refusing to supply the Chinese authorities with the demanded flight plans for the zone, while other countries' commercial carriers cooperate. U.S., Japanese and South Korean military flights, however, have ignored Beijing's demands.

“From now it is a question of enforcement,” says Rory Medcalf, a specialist on Asian maritime security at the Lowy Institute, a think tank in Sydney. Having now asserted its rights, how—or will—China compel other countries to fully recognize them?

No comments: