Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Ukraine is not Yet Dead

Events continue to unfold and they ahve taken some good, but also frightening turns.

Good news first.

Yatsenyuk is pretty much going to be interim prime minister.  This goes along with the US preferences.

The US is ready with a billion dollars of aid to Ukraine if Ukraine works out a deal with the IMF.

The Berkut have been disbanded.

With a single exception, the Euromaidan revolution is accepted in every region (province).

Bad news.

The Russians are saber rattling: they are conducting military exercises just across the Ukrainian border with tens of thousands of troops.   General Shoigu is even there, running the show.  This has echoes of Georgia.

The Russians also have been stating the government is illegitimate and they will not do business with them.  This means the $ (or rubles) promised are not coming.  

Crimea is the single region which is not accepting the new central government.  They have brought out the Russian flag and have it over the parliament building in Simferopol.  A recent demonstration in support of Russia was met and overrun by a counter demonstration by the Crimean Tatars in support of Kyiv.  The city government of Sevastopol has pulled together the funding to keep their Berkut.

Minor bad news is Yanukovich is playing Where's Waldo.  Last seen in Crimea.  Not seen since.  A couple reports place him in Moscow.

The Ukrainians are pulling things together.  Its not easy, especially with the personalities and passions now involved.  However, the Russians are perched like a hawk, ready to swoop on their border.  If that were to happen, it would do so in the next month.  The longer the Russians wait, the more prepare the Ukrainians will be, not necessarily militarily, but might broker something with the West which would prevent the Russians from being overly a military exercise around Mariupol ought to do it.  Preferably French and British troops.  American might be too provocative and the French and Brits have nukes so as to counter that bully stick.

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