There's less to report than I would think and yet there might be something interesting happening.
The Russians seem to be consolidating their hold on Crimea. They have moved anti ship missiles to the peninsula. They have moved a lot of troops. Armour is moving up the main highways to the
They are likely to have their referendum which has been advertised and it'll, duh, pass.
However, the Ukrainians will not give up without a fight.
The actual interesting thing is something I may be totally off on: I could be completely WRONG. With a flash tag. What is it? The Russian troops, on the individual level seem to be letting a lot continue. What do I mean a lot? It appears the troops are taking very small bases rather than the main ones recently. Also food is still getting into the Ukrainian bases. Likewise, there are videos floating around of Ukrainian helicopters on resupply runs in Crimea. These could be stopped. The Russians could choke hold each of the bases for supplies and starve the troops out. Yet, they don't. I am almost assuredly misreading this. Don't take what I am about to say too seriously. I am NOT on the ground and talking to the folks there. However...I am wondering if the fact they are facing boys, kids, soldiers who speak pretty much the same language, look like their neighbors and might even look like their in-laws may be starting to cause the soldiers to let the little things slide. Little defiances of their orders. There may be the start of something along the lines of...well...the word begins with an 'm.' Political leaders sweat over it. Big time. Watch what the individual soldiers do over the next week or two.
In other news, there are a few reports of military movement along Ukraine's eastern border. Photographs of tanks and whatnot.
Germany seems to be coming around to sanctions against Russia. This could be big. Merkel has been a mildly wet blanket over sanctioning Russia and making diplomatic moves. She may have given up. if Germany signals its willing to have significant economic pain in order to stop Putin, that's a major breakthrough.
The Swiss seem to have frozen accounts of up to $7 billion from Ukrainian officials from Yanukovich's regime.
Yatsenyuk is in the US. He attended the UN and will be negotiating with the US government.
The US has been working overtime to woo China against Russia. There has been progress. However, the situation has got to be uncomfortable for the Chinese all the way around: a popular uprising against a corrupt regime (erm) and then add a dose of a foreign power intervening in a sovereign state (um) who happens to be a major trade partner (erk) and is opposed by a greater trade partner who is also a rival (uck) and wants your support (frack).
If Europe, the US and China act in concert, Russia is in deep trouble.
No comments:
Post a Comment