Ukraine: The Deadline is Here

I doubt the LGM have backed down.  let's see if Kiev's got the cajones...

and if the Russians react like they say they will.

Ukraine Preparing for Herodom? Or Hero-Doom?

The situation in Ukraine has considerably worsened.  More cities in eastern Ukraine have been occupied by the Little Green Men.

Mariupol, Khartsyzk, Krasnyi Lymon, Druzhkovka and Debaltsevo the pro Russian forces have taken over.

In Zaporizhzhya the locals stopped them and set up check points to prevent their entry.

In Kherson, the locals chased the pro Russians intensely.

In Gorlovka, the cops have holed up not letting the pro Russians to take over.

In Kharkov, the pro russians seized buildings, but the cops got them to leave. There are reports the acting mayor has stated he will support the separatists and that is why they left.

The police in Odesa have come out in public now wearing the Saint George's medal (the separatist symbol) and the cops in Donetsk have gone over to the pro russians.

Several of the Little Green Men have admitted they are Russians here to 'help their Ukrainian brothers.' 

The Ukrainian army has moved to outside of Slavyansk and is supposed to assault. They are waiting for armor support. There is a deadline in two hours to lay down their weapons.

The UNSC met.  Russia claims this is all peaceful protests (!) and the West called Russia a liar.  The expressed concern.  

The West has threatened more sanctions.  Woopie.  

Ukraine has about 72 hours, from my point of view to start mopping up the LGM.  if they do not, or their forces switch sides, they are screwed.  They will lose the East and Southern Ukraine.  At this point, they must act decisively.  Or all is lost. 

Ukraine: Clawing to Keep From Being Pulled Under

The Pro Russian forces - the Little Green Men - made some pretty bold moves today.  They hit at least Gorlovka, Kraysni Lymon, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  They succeeded in taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  There was a shoot out in Kramatorsk: the video was taken and resides above.  In Slavyansk, the mayor even came out in support of the Little Green Men and helped build the modest, more symbolic barricade and the LGM set up check points outside of town.  In Kraysni Lymon, the people came out to make a human chain to block the LGMs from taking the police station.  In Gorlovka, the police won the shootout with the LGM.  Reports are the LGM worked as a unit, a platoon, actually.  That's not a good sign.  It definitely means they are not merely locals.  

A similar attempt was made in Donetsk to grab more buildings.  It did not succeed.  There may have been something similar in Kharkov, but the populace was out in spades today for Ukraine.

A bus full of LGM was caught outside Artemovska.  The police and activists chased down and disabled the bus.  here's a link.  Its something I've been avoiding in these updates.  This time I think I ought.

The Ukrainian authorities need to make a move against these groups.  By dithering over Donetsk, they have encouraged the second wave of LGM.  I understand their reasoning: Russia has been threatening to intervene.  The problem is the Russians are effectively in process of intervening now and no action makes it completely likely the regular russian army will follow.  This is the playbook of Crimea.  They are doing it again.   Dithering plays into the hands of the Russians.  There has been a report or two they may be getting together an armed response.  We'll see.

There are reports Lavrov has pulled out of the four way talks with the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine.  this is conflicting with a lot of others.  I sincerely hope they are not pulling out and the Russians are not just playing for time.  It has been confirmed Russia is talking about pulling out of the talks if Ukraine responds to the LGM with force.  That'd definitely imply the Russians didn't want to have them in the first place because the Ukrainians MUST reply with force.

In other news, Biden is going to go to Ukraine later in the month to show support.  It'd be support if the 173rd went with him.  Otherwise, it's what the Ukrainians call 'empty words.'

The Chinese in other news have expressed support for the IMF to bailout Ukraine.  While there was a bit of equivocating, it was much less than before. 

Ukraine: The Grind Forward

It seems whatever the hopes the pro Russian groups had in the east, they have been almost completely confined.  The People's Republic of Donetsk seems to be confined to a single building which is steadily fortifying and the locals are mostly steering clear.

Yatsenyuk has offered to devolve some powers from Kiev to the regions.  Its not full federalism, but partial.

Poroshenko seems to be the front runner for the Ukrainian Presidential election in may.  Next is Timoshenko.  My biggest concern about the Chocolate King is he is another oligarch and was endorsed by...Firtash.  oy.  This could be more of the same corruption.

There was another fist fight this week in the Rada.  oy.

NATO has released a series of images of the Russian units massed on the borders.  They are apparently done exercising - if they ever were - and ready for use.  The draftees, who are normally headed home this time of year, are not.  This is enormously worrying.  Not only are the current draftees staying, but knew ones are swelling the ranks.

The Russians offered financial aid to Ukraine in exchange for acknowledging Crimea as Russian.  If they take this, it out to be a purchase and a huge $ value.  Like say all of the back cost of Ukraine's gas bills and the same for the next ten years. Plus adding Kaliningrad Oblast to Ukraine in exchange.  ;)

The Russians warned Europe they might cut off gas to Ukraine because of the back bills and that would effect flows to Europe.  Europe in response offered Ukraine gas and the EU guarantees Ukraine's payments to its member states.

There are accusations of Russia keeping the newer jets and other military equipment Ukraine had in Crimea.  I have to admit I am surprised the Ukrainians are getting anything back. 

The US has increased the # of folks on the sanctions list.  These are both Russians and some Ukrainians and some Russian businesses.

There has been talk of supporting the hryvnia  by the US and other countries, so Ukraine has a chance to avoid some of the economic disasters associated with a rollercoasting currency.

The IMF has stated Ukraine's debt is sustainable.  A nontrivial concession by them.

Ukraine: Not Yet Conquered

 

The battles for the East are continuing.  It appears the Pro Russian groups have been completely ousted in Kharkov: 70 arrests were made.  However, that is not the case in Lugansk and Donetsk.  In Lugansk, the pro russian forces have taken hostages (most have been freed).  These guys are starting to cross into the terrorist category.

I suspect that with Kharkov cleared, the next city to be is Lugansk.  Donetsk is the hardest of the lot with so many having shown up in support of the 'People's Republic of Donetsk': I've seen claims of up to two thousand.  The picture above is from the admin building the pro russian folks have barricaded themselves in.  Earlier in the day, a human chain of women - babuschkas really - 'blocked' access until the barricade was in place. 

Timoshenko has arrived in Donetsk.  I am sure this will completely help the situation.  Good grief.  That woman is poison.

 Everyone in the West is stating the Russians are behind the latest attempts at seizing the east's admin buildings and whatnot.  US Secretary of State Kerry even called it a pretext for an invasion.

There was a fight in the Rada in Kiev.  The communist rep Symonenko running for president who is actually from Donetsk accused government in Kiev of playing into Russia's hands by removing the "protestors" in the east.  One of the Right Sector twits attacked him.  Whether he's right or a Russian puppet, fist fights in the Rada?  Really?

The US has moved another Burke class destroyer into the Black Sea officially in support of Ukraine.  NATO is increasing troops and planes on the border of Ukraine.  (C'mon Obama, just say '173rd')

NATO is apparently supplying Ukraine with nonweapon supplies for its military.  Fuel, trucks, food, etc.  This may make a difference.  You can't convert over an entire army in a month to new weapons, but trucks can definitely help.  They need to supply ATGMs and SAMs for the Ukrainian soldiers next.  That will make another difference.

There is a rumor (of course there is!) the pro Russian forces are supposed to make a lot of blood shed tonight to provide the pretext for Russia's intervention.  We'll see.

The EU, America, Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet over the crisis.  I suspect Russia will obstruct or obfuscate and delay.  

Russia, btw, was forced to cancel a bond sale.  No one wanted to buy at the prices they wanted to offer.  The market DOES care what Russia is up to.

Ukraine on a Boil: Lance it or get out of the pot!

Lots of rumors.  Few facts other than what has been happening in the east.

The east.  Least start there.  The Pro Russian groups moved again in Kharkov, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Donetsk.  They took over a number of buildings and subsequently forced out of most of those.  While they had control of the buildings they declared independent republics for the different cities.  They called for referendums and for Russia to intervene. 

The Russians seem to have begun painting some peace keeping slogans on tanks.  

The Russians have also warned Ukraine NOT to use force against the pro russian forces. 

Related, the US has released pix of the build up of tanks, etc near the border near Rostov-on-Don.  Its impressive.

The Ukrainian military is working on rearming and in the process becoming NATO compatible.  They are NOT joining NATO any time soon though.

more later if I have time.

Russian Buildup Continues Near Novozybkov, Bryansk Oblast

Despite Russian claims to have withdrawn some troops from its borders with Ukraine, satellite imagery shows that Russian Army deployments to the border region appear to continue.

Last week, IHS Jane's noted the deployment of armoured units to the Novozybkov region in Bryansk oblast, which lies north of Kiev. As time passes, the specific locations of deployed units can be ascertained using satellite imagery.

Airbus Defence and Space imagery captured on 21 March 2014 shows Russian troop formations deployed to a training centre west of Belgorod.

link.

Ukraine: And the Pain Plays on

The bitter-sweetness of victory?  That's the feeling at the moment.  There are a number of events underway which could ruin Ukraine, but may help instead.

Yanukovych has given what has to be one of the bizarrest interviews since Charlie Sheen. He stated he did ask for help from Putin with soldiers, but hopes to negotiate the return of Crimea. He calls his request an utter mistake. The man is a complete idiot.

The Right Sector handed over a fair amount of improvised weapons to the National Guard. However, they did state they would be rearming until the situation in Ukraine has improved.

Poroshenko - the chocolate king (but not of chicago!) - seems to be gaining steam running for president. I hope he's better than Yanukovich. There are supposed to be 38 (!) candidates including Darth Vader! (oy) No to Timoshenko!!!  I hope Yatsenyuk keeps the PM spot though.

Ukrainians keep catching Russians with car loads of weapons. Not sure what to make of this.

The Russians, despite some earlier reports, have not pulled back their troops. Not even a battalion.

NATO has stated Russian can overrun eastern and southern Ukraine in no more than 5 days.

Russia has upped the price of gas to Ukraine. They have stated they may increase the price further to recoup the discounts they gave earlier to Ukraine. jerks. In retaliation, the West has promised to help Ukraine with getting off its Russian gas addiction. Perhaps this will include LNG stations on the Black Sea. One could hope.

Russia has also issued warnings to Ukraine about moving closer to NATO. 

On the embarrassing side Lyudmila Putina dressed in Ukrainian colors.  ;)

Ukraine: And then?

Kerry and Lavrov have been meeting a lot since the last update.  There have been some bitterness from Ukrainians, although not much, since the US has been insistent that no agreements can be made without Ukraine involved.

The interior ministry has moved against the Right Sector.  They raided the Dnipro hotel and removed the Right Sector from there.  They are being disarmed (so reports say) and transported out of Kiev.  I hope this is not the start of tearing at one another.

There are reports Russia has pulled back a battalion of troops from the Ukrainian border.  One Battalion is not much, really.  They are also supposed to be reducing the number of troops in Crimea.

The Russians have unilaterally declared the Black Sea basing agreement as null and void.

The Russians keep talking about federalization for Ukraine.  No one else seems to be listening.

The Crimean Tatars have voted for autonomy.  What that means remains to be seen.

Yanukovich continues to demonstrate what an idiot he is.

Ukraine: Increasing Warnings & Some Hope

The Russian build up on the eastern border continues.  The Ukrainian government is giving second sources now of support units moving along.  The videos above vary from March 11 to yesterday.  The one with the APCs is impressive.  That's the full logistics train, not just AFVs, and it looks to be somewhere around 50 APCs.  That is at least a battalion.

Putin called Obama to discuss the situation.  

Obama warned Putin to move the troops back away from the border.

The Ukrainians have dug in along the border.  Its a big border.

The Russians also threatened the UN ambassadors in eastern europe and central asia just before the UN vote for supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  The Russians replied they just explained the situation.  ahem.

The candidates are coming out of the woodwork.  Poroshenko seems to be the leading contender.    Ukrainians I know call him a crook.   Since the presidency is supposed to be symbolic, a la European style, Klitschko might be the best pick.  Whoever it is MUST stick with the constitution.  Timoshenko must NOT be elected president.  She will rip up the constitution again for her own advantage.

It appears the Ukrainians avoided some of the pitfalls Greece made with the IMF.  Though that might be

I'm going to cave in for the moment to my inner arm chair general and wonder what would be the repercussions if the 173rd Airborne Brigade were deployed to Donetsk.  Would that make things better?  IE tripwire troops to make the Russians think twice?  Or would that make things worse?

Ukraine: Precipitous or Peril

The IMF announced its deal.  The first part is $18 billion over two years.  Then if the reforms required are pushed through there is another $9 billion available.  I think we're over the $40 billion in promised aid to Ukraine now.  

However, the aid does not come without teeth, serious teeth which are going to bite the average Ukrainian hard.  The first is a rise in the price of natural gas starting in May of 50%.  Not a phased in, but rather a simple jump.  The second I have seen is a serious cut in social spending by the government.  This has been already passed as of today, if I am not mistaken.  Finally, which won't hurt the average Ukrainian much, the tax rates for the richest Ukrainians are going to go up.  A LOT.  

The US White House and Congress have become become EXTREMELY worried about the Russian troops on the eastern border.  The types of units being moved in, their constantly exercising and continuous reinforcement seem to belie the claim these are normal exercises. It also fits the pattern before the invasion of Chechnya and Georgia.

Putin is getting angry over the threat of cutting Visa and Mastercard off from Russia.  He's threatening to make a domestic equivalent, but how long and how corrupt would it be?

The Right Sector marched on and protested in front of the Rada.  They want the Interior Minister fired for the death of Oleksandr Muzychko. They "apologized" to the Russians for not turning violent and having no plans to do so.

Timoshenko is planning to run for president of Ukraine.  If she gets it, its a disaster.  She should not be let ANYWHERE near the levers of power in Kiev.  She and Yuschenko are to blame for the Orange Revolution failing.  

 

Ukraine: The Newest Threat

There has been a lot going on.   There have actually been some good developments.  However, there have been humiliations and a new threat.

First off, the IMF and Ukraine seem to have reached a deal.  The amount to be loaned is supposed to be $15 billion.  The Japanese have announced they will loan $1.5 billion as well (contingent to the IMF deal going through).  With the previously promised amounts, we have now exceeded $35 billion.   This is good news.  But it comes with some pain.

The IMF required Ukraine to end subsidies on a lot of things and other reforms.  One of them is the cost of consumer gas.  That will rise 50% in price in May.  That will hurt the average Ukrainian.

The East and south have been rounding up the trouble makers, arresting many of the separatist leaders and the protests for Russian integration/intervention have been dwindling in size.

The Russians are paying substantially for their acquisition of Crimea: $70 billion have left Russia already in the first quarter and more, a lot more soon.  Its not as bad as the amoutn siphoned off by Yanukovich et al percentage wise from Ukraine, but still enough to hurt. And its going to hurt more. 

The West is getting set to do another round of sanctions on the Russians.  As I said, this will hurt even more.

On the bad side...

The Russians have finished capturing the Ukrainian navy.  They have started releasing Ukrainian troops to go to the mainland.  They claim to have had 50% of them flip sides to the Russian military.  The Russians also have increased the number of troops on the eastern border. 

There have been more than one claim the Russians, if they are going to, will have to intervene before the end of May. 

Now the new threat.  That is Trident on Trident violence.

Oleksandr Muzychko was killed by police.  He was far from a hero and was threatening the new government and was accused of war crimes in Chechnya against captured Russian troops.  However, his death could trigger a backlash against the government from the 'Right Sector.'

Likewise the Marines I had been praising so much in Feodosia are pissed off.  They were about to leave, surrendering their base, when the Russians swooped in.  Despite some personal apologies from the Russian troops ("Sorry, brother."), the Marines were humiliated.  Some of them have been saying when they get back to the mainland, they will storm the defense ministry's HQ.  While I've commented before on Ukrainians seemingly lacking much filter between their brains and mouths, that's a scary prospect.

Why?  And that would give Russia EXACTLY the pretext they need to intervene.  I hope the Marines and the Right Sector realize that...and refrain from rash actions.  You're getting damned close to being on course for Europe.  Hang on guys! 

What to Watch on the Ukrainian Border

Watch for field hospitals.  If they are there, then war is coming and soon.  If they are not, Putin's being orally flatulent.

Watch for the hospitals.  Some Russian speaking Ukrainians ought to go take a peak and take pix if they are there.

I know I have a fair number of Ukrainian readers.  You can email me the results if you need/want to.  anzha el why you at gmail.com.

PS  Feodosia fell today.  There are reports of wounded Marines.

Ukraine! The Strength of Their Resilience and Weakness of Their State

The latest is interesting and exciting.

There has been shooting at Belbek in Crimea.  The Ukrainians refused to let the Russians roll in and fought back.  The Russians retreated and brought in company or two of armored fighting vehicles.  As to what happens next...its looking a bit grim.

Feodosia - the Ukrainian Marines - is looking VERY tense.  If the Ukrainian Marines are like our jarheads, I'd strongly recommend the occupiers stay as far away from their families as possible.  Give you hell would be an understatement.

There are reports of some of the Ukrainian naval ships attempting to break out.  No word on its success.  Probably not much.  More ships have been taken, of course.

Russia has admitted the sanctions are already biting.  A bond sale has been postponed due to the costs therein.

France is considering canceling the sale of the amphibious ships to Russia.  Germany has canceled contracts as well. Obama has given authority to cancel ones the US has as well.

The US is looking to increase its military support past rations.  Probably trucks and transport next, I'd guess.  

Ukraine signed the European Union association agreement.  Had Yankukovich done so, he'd likely still be president.

The IMF has stated they need a little longer to finish the negotiations with Ukraine and extended the deadline to the 25th.

Rumor has it Japan has ponied up $10 billion for infrastructure in Ukraine.  That needs confirmation and I have only seen that in Ukrainian sources.  If true, whoa.

Timoshenko has returned to Ukraine.  This is not a positive development.

There are trillions of rumors as to what's the next move in the chess game.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I place it at 50-50 whether or not Putin decides to get up from the table with his winnings.

Ukraine: The Referendum Cometh

There have been a number of developments.

The first is last minute talks between the West and Russia have failed. Russia is calling the West's bluff. Or what they think is a bluff at least.

In reply the West has stated they will respond more than negatively to the referendum or annexation. The next level of sanctions will cut in on Monday: including, supposedly, those against GAZPROM and ROSNEFT.

The US was asked for a lot of military aid. This has been turned down. For now. With the exception of food for the troops. This is being sent immediately. They'll get to suffer through American MREs.

One of the reasons why is the Ukrainian army is in a shambles. They don't even have money for fuel. One of the oligarchs is stepping up to provide that in Eastern Ukraine.

The US may not be exactly passive though. There are reports a Reaper drone - an armed unmanned aircraft - crashed or was spoofed in Crimea. *IF* a Reaper is there, you can bet there are other, more advanced drones running around.

Crimea had a pro Ukraine rally today in Simferopol. It was modest in size.

The big news outside of Crimea has been the clashes in Donetsk. Reports are of differing numbers of those who were killed. Some say as high as four. Others only one. The other interesting bit from it was that photographs of some of the Pro Russian protestors are cropping up and they were in Riga in 2009. This is similar to the Lugansk Flag pole guy (hint: he lives in Moscow).

The last news is Russia is massing troops on the east and northeast of Ukraine. We knew that already. The russians keep exercising them. The mailed fist is quite obvious.

On the positive side, the Canadians have offered $200 million (+/-) and the IMF has snapped into negotiating with Kiev to get a loan in place by March 21st.   The US has also now added an additional $600 million to the total.  This means brings the American total to $1.6 billion.  Between the US, Canadians, World Bank and Europeans we are now almost up to $21 billion.  Toss in whatever the IMF is going to do...and Ukraine seems to be on the path for the $30+ billion they say they need.

On the ineffective side, a draft UN resolution which is squarely on Ukraine's side and even goes as far as to call the referendum illegal is going to be rejected/vetoed by Russia.

The referendum cometh.  It will arrive soon and then all hell may break loose with the all but guaranteed outcome.

Did Russia Just Capture a MQ-9B Reaper Over Crimea?

A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology group said Friday.

"The drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US operators with complex radio-electronic" technology, said Rostec in a statement.

The drone fell "almost intact into the hands of self-defence forces" added Rostec, which said it had manufactured the equipment used to down the aircraft, but did not specify who was operating it.

"Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria," Rostec said on its website, which also carried a picture of what it said was the captured drone.

The photograph appeared to show an apparently armed drone in flight, rather than debris.

link.

Ukraine: Wither, Dither and Boom?

I retired that word, so you will not see me use it.

Aid to Ukraine.  The Euros promised $15 billion.  The US promised $1 billion. The IMF has not decided.  However, the World Bank has stated they will loan $3 billion for infrastructure in Ukraine this year.  That brings the total promised so far to $19 billion and the IMF may give as much as the Euros.  Unfortunately, there are two bits.  The first is that the US House and Senate are at loggerheads over IMF funding.  The Senate passed and attached some IMF reform to the Ukraine aid bill.  The House supports the aid, but not the reform.  This could cause problems.  I hope they realize how damned important this is right now and find a way through this fast.  The second bit, which is more amusing than bad, is Putin has stated it is illegal for the US or West to loan Ukraine money, specifically its against treaties.  *snork*

Ukraine is perilously close to going bankrupt.  They need financial aid immediately.

Obama says Ukraine has the full backing of the United States.  Prove it!  Get the House and Senate to move their rumps, Mr President.

From what it looks like the build up of Russian forces on the east and northeastern borders continues.

In Crimea, things remain dicey.  The Russians take over small posts.  The Marines and others are left alone.  The former is probably wise for the Russians. More troops continue to move into the Peninsula.  The Russians have shutdown the internet and all Ukrainian language tv channels.  They have also stopped all flights except to Moscow.

The anglophone russian apologists are starting to come round.  They are starting to say both sides are nuts rather than simply claim the West is the source of the problem and Kiev is evil.  Let me say there are NO ANGELS in this.  We have our problems.  The Russians have theirs.  yanukovich was a son of a biscuit though.  50% of a GDP over three years is astounding.  Doug once told a 'joke' about a dictator who took 100%.  Had Yanukovich not been ousted, Ukraine was headed that way.

 The Poles and Ukrainians have planned an air force exercise in May.  I hope this is on Ukrainian soil. The Poles keep reminding me of Stephen.  You can figure out the rest of what I mean.  Good for them, btw.

Yanukovich is not dead.  Oh the travesty of rumors which make us hope.  He's CEARLY delusional though.

The Crimean Tatars are all but saying "Over our dead bodies" that they will be Russian again.  I hope that won't happen.  In either interpretation of that.

Rumors are that TIMOSHENKO'S accounts are being unveiled.  I certainly hope so.  She's a snake.  I keep calling her Ann Coulter with a Ukrainian hairdo.  Her nastiness (and Yuschenko's) were why we are in this mess in the first place.  Its also why Yatsenyuk and Turchynov are handling this so much better: they learned from the idiocy of the Orange Revolution. 

Lots of people are saying there will be a civil war.  If anything it will be the mainland against the twits in Crimea.  

The funny bit for the day is the folks in Odessa.   They made a funny "Putin Go Home" Video.  Now they showed up at the Russian consulate and started draping pasta all over fence.  In Russian, apparently, 'hanging noodles on ears' means lying or you are in the act of lying.

At any rate, my bet is the endgame for Putin is another Frozen conflict.  He has a different way then to manipulate Ukraine and prevent it from getting into the EU and possibly NATO (though doubtful that last any time soon under ANY circumstances).  People smarter than I have concurred.  My only worry is he might pull the trigger and go for south and east Ukraine.

Ukraine: Slips and Slights

There's less to report than I would think and yet there might be something interesting happening. 

The Russians seem to be consolidating their hold on Crimea.  They have moved anti ship missiles to the peninsula.  They have moved a lot of troops.  Armour is moving up the main highways to the

They are likely to have their referendum which has been advertised and it'll, duh, pass.  

However, the Ukrainians will not give up without a fight.

The actual interesting thing is something I may be totally off on: I could be completely WRONG.  With a flash tag.  What is it?  The Russian troops, on the individual level seem to be letting a lot continue. What do I mean a lot?  It appears the troops are taking very small bases rather than the main ones recently.  Also food is still getting into the Ukrainian bases.  Likewise, there are videos floating around of Ukrainian helicopters on resupply runs in Crimea.  These could be stopped.  The Russians could choke hold each of the bases for supplies and starve the troops out.  Yet, they don't.  I am almost assuredly misreading this.  Don't take what I am about to say too seriously.  I am NOT on the ground and talking to the folks there.  However...I am wondering if the fact they are facing boys, kids, soldiers who speak pretty much the same language, look like their neighbors and might even look like their in-laws may be starting to cause the soldiers to let the little things slide.  Little defiances of their orders.  There may be the start of something along the lines of...well...the word begins with an 'm.'  Political leaders sweat over it.  Big time.  Watch what the individual soldiers do over the next week or two.

In other news, there are a few reports of military movement along Ukraine's eastern border.  Photographs of tanks and whatnot. 

Germany seems to be coming around to sanctions against Russia.  This could be big.  Merkel has been a mildly wet blanket over sanctioning Russia and making diplomatic moves.  She may have given up.  if Germany signals its willing to have significant economic pain in order to stop Putin, that's a major breakthrough.

The Swiss seem to have frozen accounts of up to $7 billion from Ukrainian officials from Yanukovich's regime.

Yatsenyuk is in the US.  He attended the UN and will be negotiating with the US government.  

The US has been working overtime to woo China against Russia.  There has been progress.    However, the situation has got to be uncomfortable for the Chinese all the way around: a popular uprising against a corrupt regime (erm) and then add a dose of a foreign power intervening in a sovereign state (um) who happens to be a major trade partner (erk) and is opposed by a greater trade partner who is also a rival (uck) and wants your support (frack).

If Europe, the US and China act in concert, Russia is in deep trouble.

Maps of Locations of Russian and Ukrainian Troops

via Russian Military Reform.

Chinese View of the Euromaidan Revoluton in Ukraine & the Russian Invasion of Crimea

In a statement that has been widely interpreted as signifying Chinese support for the Russian position on the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on March 3 that the foreign ministers of the two countries had expressed “broadly coinciding views” in a telephone conversation (South China Morning Post (SCMP), March 4). While we do not know what Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his counterpart on the phone, China has studiously avoided endorsing Russia’s views in public, and rather appears to be pursuing a neutrality that will permit it to deal easily with any government that establishes power in Kiev. Nor has Chinese media coverage been favorable to Russia.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s terse official description of the call says only that “The two sides believed that properly handling the Ukrainian crisis is very important to safeguarding regional peace and stability”—a sentiment with which Washington and Kiev no doubt agree (Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs website (MoFA), March 3).

At the Foreign Ministry’s daily press briefings, Chinese spokespeople have repeatedly described the change in government as a legitimate choice made by the Ukrainian people. Two days after deposed Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych fled Kiev, spokesperson Hua Chunying said that China “respects the independent choice made by the Ukrainian people in keeping with Ukraine’s national conditions and stands ready to foster strategic partnership with the Ukrainian side on an equal footing for win-win progress” (MoFA daily briefing, February 24).

The speed with which China came to accept the revolution in Ukraine stands in sharp contrast to its handling of the events of the Arab Spring, in which Chinese spokespeople repeatedly endorsed the legitimacy of regimes even as they were collapsing, leading to a situation in which China had to scramble to establish relations with new governments in order to protect oil concessions and other economic interests in these countries.

link.