A LOT has happened in Ukraine. Very little of it is good. One of the events which makes me the most nervous (and I brought up to friends in email as a possibility back in March) may have reared its ugly head. Gawd I hope not.
Let me outright say Right Sector is bad news. They are near fascists and are in many ways even more squicky than the
Azov Regiment. Azov has kept itself largely focused on fighting the Russians. Right Sector has done that, to be sure, but it has also gotten involved in politics in ways which seem more, um, central european, brown shirted sort of way.
Right Sector Squads raided Rada MP Lanyo's business, claiming the MP's people were engaged in illegal acts of smuggling. Locals state that both Right Sector and Lanyo are involved in snuggling and this was a business dispute. Lanyo's 'guards' fought back and a gun fight erupted. 11 people were injured. The police got involved and three cop cars were destroyed. There are claims the retreating RS paramilitary took a kid hostage and retreated into the forest. The kid was later released. The Ukrainian cops and now army moved into Mukacheve to clamp down. The RS paramil guys are still on the loose in the woods. The cops have demanded they surrender. Supposedly, the wounded RS troops have surrendered, but probably not all.
What happened next was is only spiraling things into the 'worse' category. First the Right Sector held rallies across the country in support of their 'Transcarpathian Robin Hoods.' They blocked streets in Ivano-Frankivsk. They threw up checkpoints around Mukacheve (but these went away fast). There were reports of the same outside of Kiev and then a large rally in Kiev. To make matters even worse, Yarosh ordered the RS troops on the line of contact in the Donbass to pull back (to support him). As of this writing, the commanders there are flipping him the bird. Some of the RS troops are even changing to other volunteer battalions. There is a chance one or more RS battalions may pull back. This is...really bad.
What I have long worried about is the Ukrainian body politic getting frustrated with the lack of progress (again) in dealing with corruption and the war with Russia. That would turn into another Maidan and they'd go after Poroshenko then. Ukrainians are not, on the whole, a very patient people and they are very passionate. If Ukraine tore itself apart, then the Russians would jump right through that crumbling wall.
In fact, the timing of this is very odd. There have been rumors of Donnie Reb launching an offensive on the 15th. In fact, the DNR has started stating the Ukrainians will be attacking on or about then. It has been their modus operandi to say the Ukrainians are going to attack and then to launch an offensive. This much is just word of mouth, even if its from the leaders...and their leaders have not been noted for being terribly reliable. However, there is some other interesting evidence.
First off, there will be another convoy arriving, well, about now. The attacks by the DNR LNR step up within 48 hours of the arrivals. Interesting timing that.
Secondly, the DNR is shipping 3k (yes! three *THOUSAND*) kids from the Donbass to Crimea...when they cannot afford to pay for their own electricity. um. Even more interesting!
Third, the DNR and LNR ground forces (which are enormous, btw!) have been practicing overrunning defensive positions. NOT how to counterattack any Ukrainian offensives. Their drills have progressed to battalion sized maneuvers in the videos leaked online.
Fourth, the Opsec of the Russians in the Donbass has immeasurably improved. We see less of what the Russians are doing since Vice News tracked down that one soldier. That provided some brave journalism. It has made life a little more difficult hunting down what's coming. It also suggests a lot more is going on too. However, NATO hs stated there is a record number of Russian soldiers present in the rebel areas.
Fifth, the Russians have replaced the general in charge in eastern Ukraine. Lemsov is out. The new guy is in.
Finally, there are more staging areas like Sontsev which have been found by drone and in Gorlovka and elsewhere there are concentrations of armor and tanks.
Adding together, its very frightening. Its not a smoking gun, but its scary enough I have deep suspicions something is about to go down.
Of course, the artillery barrages up and down the contact line. Shirokyne is the exception since all's quiet in that destroyed village. To the north of Shirokyne has started increased barrages though. Especially bad is the line from just south of Donetsk all the way up to Lugansk. There are also small unit clashes and a handful of minor tank skirmishes as well.
On the groan side of things, Merkel and Hollande are demanding Ukraine give the Donbass self rule. Helpful as always.
On the more positive side, it looks as though the US Army is likely to expand the training for the Ukrainian army. This appears to be the case for the Brits, Canadians and others. The Ukrainians are very happy with the training and want all their units trained.
The Ukrainians have been an interesting claim European countries have been supplying them with weapons. Not just defensive capabilities, but tanks, etc. I suspect these are from the former warsaw pact countries with their excess equipment since NATO standard would be incompatible with what they have.
The Ukrainians have stated they want javelin antitank missiles. The US Joint Chief of Staff nominee is saying its reasonable.
Russian troops, despite very serious threats of prosecution have started deserting their units. Its hard to tell how many have, really, but its in the dozens if not as much as a hundred. The Russian air force has stepped up operations (including having flown nuclear bombers off California and the US east coast during the 4th of july), but it is costing them: there have been a large number of crashes. The MiG-29s are now grounded. If Russia pushes it tempo past what they can sustain, then they will have serious problems. Which is good for Ukraine.
Ukraine is about to privatize over 500 state owned firms. If this is done legally and cleanly, this could be a boon for Ukraine's economy as better management takes over. This would be especially the case if the West buys a large portion of the firms. It could also be a huge windfall, too. Or it could be a new round of the corrupt sell off which happened before.
We shall see.
