Merkel Agrees to let Putin Carve off the Donbass From Ukraine, ahem, Grant it Special Status

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed on Monday that Ukraine should give its separatist-led Donbass region a special status set out in Ukrainian law, the Kremlin said.

It gave no further details of the leaders’ discussions on the future of Donbass during a phone call, but agreement on its status would be a step toward convening a four-nation summit on ending five years of conflict in the eastern region.

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy said last month that Kiev had agreed to grant Donbass special status and let local elections go ahead there. The breakthrough raised hopes that a date would be set for the summit involving Kiev, Moscow, Berlin and Paris.

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Russians Moves Forward With Annexation Tactics in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree expanding the list of Ukrainians and citizens of some other countries eligible for fast-tracked Russian passports, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

The list included Ukrainians who once lived in Ukraine’s Crimea region before it was annexed by Russia in 2014, and citizens of Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Afghanistan who were born in Russia during the Soviet era.

An earlier Kremlin decree, simplifying the procedure for obtaining a Russian passport for residents of the rebel-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, was signed by Putin on April 24.

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Ukraine War Update: Пожалейте бедных Украины. До сих пор от Бога, настолько полно коррумпированных людей и так близко к России.

Ukraine has been suffering through major fighting, or at least significant shelling, on the contact line in the Donbass.

Ukraine is fighting just to hang on.

The fighting had over 10,000 recorded explosions  in a day by the flacid OSCE between the Donnie Rebs and Ukrainian military. 

Some are saying this is a test of the new Trump administration to see what he will do.  Others are suggesting Trump has already abandoned Ukraine in favor of Russia and Putin has already been given the green light to cause Ukraine to collapse and take it over.

Some have been saying the fighting was going to be a second Debaltseve.  The Russian artillery has definitely been pounding

Here is a glimpse of life within the DNR.

Someone is assassinating the  warlords of the DNR: Givi is the latest death.  He was killed by a bomb in his office.

Much to my surprise, Trump's ambassador to the UN blamed Russia for the violence in the Donbass and she even stated the sanctions would remain in place until Crimea was returned to Ukraine.  o.O 

Ukraine War Update: Большая ложь перед бурей

Putin hints at war with Ukraine.

Putin visited Crimea. 

Putin blamed Ukraine for the peace plan failing.

Kiev is struggling with fighting the Donnie Rebs propaganda war.

If the fighting continues to worsen in the Donbas, Kiev is threatening martial law.

The fighting is increasing in the Donbas. 

Russia is building up an army on the Ukrainian border.

Trump's campaign manager, Manafort, has been named as accepting bribes from the Donnie Rebs to move money into the US.  He has since resigned.

Here's a look at the Crimean Crisis.

Ukraine War Update: Возможно падение обуви?

Russia just accused Ukraine of attempting a terrorist attack on Crimea.  

The 'incursion' was stopped and two supposed Ukrainians are dead.

Kiev denies it had anything to do with an attack.

Jane's has noted a possible build up of Russian forces in the Donbas and an offensive may be coming.

What if Ukraine was Fighting a сидеть война and nobody noticed?

Ukraine’s top military commander promised an “adequate response” after seven Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 14 injured in the past 24 hours in fighting with Russian-backed separatists controlling the country’s breakaway far east.

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OSCE Report July 19, July 20, July 22 & July 24.

And the Donnie Rebs have trained people to be insurgents.

Nadiya Savchenko, Imprisoned Ukrainian Pilot, Pardoned, Returned to Ukraine

Ukrainian military pilot Nadiya Savchenko arrived home to scenes of jubilation on Wednesday after her release by Russia in a prisoner swap and she promptly offered to fight again for Kiev in its conflict with pro-Russian separatists.

Savchenko's handover, in return for two Russian prisoners - had been demanded by the West and was cast as a humanitarian gesture by Russian President Vladimir Putin a few weeks before the European Union decides whether to extend sanctions against Russia imposed over its support of the rebels.

Savchenko, 35, barefoot - it was unclear why - and wearing a T-shirt depicting the Ukrainian coat of arms, emerged from the terminal at Kiev's Boryspil airport to cries of "hero" from a crowd of supporters, among them her sister and mother.

"Huge thanks for fighting for me. I thank everyone who wished me well. Thanks to you I survived. To those who wished me ill, I survived despite you!" she shouted.

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Ukraine War Update: Упрямым слепцом Никогда не видите

Anyone who has been following the OSCE Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has known this for some time: the truce is a farce.  Some days there are over a thousand artillery shells lobbed around Donetsk...and that's what the OSCE reports.  They have been noted in the past to have very spotty coverage of the entire line of contact and most of that line has been aflame for some time.

The increase in fighting intensity began when the political meltdown in Kiev began.  IMO, Donnie Reb is hoping for a meltdown sufficient they can begin offensives again, since the weather is improving.  It should be remembered though: Kiev != the People of Ukraine. 

In the last 24 hours, 3 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the fighting.

Even Merkel is finally saying the truce is not being respected.

There have been a few protests against the government in Odessa.  However, they were fairly limited.

I have not been posting as much here, because for personal reasons, I do not have direct contact with the people on the ground in Ukraine any more.

Ukraine War Update: да, да. Они являются марионетками носка

Russia is running a "shadow government" in rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine under the control of the FSB intelligence service, German daily Bild reported Wednesday, citing minutes from an official commission.

The report said that basic administrative functions of the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk are being run by six working groups at five Russian ministries.

The officials, who manage areas including tax law, transport infrastructure and the establishment of an electricity market, work under the auspices of the FSB and answer to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, according to the minutes cited in Bild.

"It is notable that no members of the self-declared people's republics in eastern Ukraine are on the commission," Bild said.

"They are simply informed about its findings and their political implementation."

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Ukrainian T-64 Tank Crew on the Stones

Ukraine War Update: Если Украина переплавку, будет СМИ уведомление?

I have not updated about the war in Ukraine in a while.  I have had a lot of personal issues going on and life has been a struggle.  One of the consequences of that struggle has been my personal contacts into Ukraine have been heavily curtailed.

That said, there are two separate, but related crises going on in Ukraine.  One is centered in Kiev and about - gosh, wow, I'm shocked!  shocked I tell you! - corruption.  The second is the ongoing war in the Donbass.

Corruption in Ukraine is frakkin awful.  The Bite is more like the chump of a Megalodon shark.  Even those who start out fighting corruption often succumb to the seduction of people both offerring and demanding money.  That may have been what happened here.  

The crisis in Kiev came to a head on February 15th when the deputy prosecutor resigned.  He stated friends of Poroshenko were being protected by the government from being prosecuted and many of his corruption cases were simply being blocked.  Poroshenko asked him to retract his resignation and he refused.  Poroshenko then asked for Yatsenyuk to resign.  Yatz refused and a no confidence vote was called.  Yatz's government survived, but at least two parties quit his government, including the Ukrainian Ann Coulter, Timoshenko's faction.  And now there are protestors calling for a new revolution.  To say the situation is precarious is to be polite.

The Donbass War has flared enormously since.  It never went away, to be sure, it over Christmas, the fighting dropped significantly, down to merely a handful of shots fired across the line of contact each day.  Yesterday, around just Donetsk, over 300 explosions and numerous machine gun battles took place.  The fighting is now up and down the line from Shirokyne to Lugansk.  And the OSCE, the ones reporting this, are far from reporting even half of what has been taking place.

Furthermore, there have been multiple instances of artillery shelling, not just squad level fighting.  

Since, soldiers have died and rather than petering out, the fighting has intensified.  This is almost assuredly an attempt to put more pressure on Kiev.

Also, in a lesser confrontation, Russia and Ukraine had a tiff where both sides blocked each other's trucks from crossing the border for trade.

And, finally, Ukraine has put forward a Crimean Tatar with a song about Crimea for the Eurovision contest.  

The war hasn't ended by any means.  I worry the Syrian ceasefire will be as empty as the Ukrainian one.  And the people there will suffer.  Just so politicians can claim they made peace.  Even if its an empty, bitter and false one.

Ukrainian War Update: Донбасс Война не кошка Шредингера

I have not posted on the situation in Ukraine for a while.  There are some personal reasons for this, but it should be strongly noted that the war has not stopped.  My read that it would die down due to Russia's commitment to Syria has been erroneous.

Or in plain English, I was wrong.

In the last 24 hours, well over 1,000 artillery (from mortar on up) have been fired along the contact line.  Over half were centered, of course, on Donetsk.  However, its not exclusively there.  many are in the Lugansk oblast.  Fighting in Shirokyne and Gorlovka is ongoing as well.

Maryinka is one of the most heavily fought over areas, much like Gorlovka.  There are multi company battles that took place in the last 24 hours.

Its not just artillery exchanges, btw.  Machine gun fire and small arms are also in play as are clashes with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs).

In the mean time, in Crimea, the Russians have moved significantly more fighters and other military equipment into the peninsula.  There has been claims, recently reiterated, nuclear weapons have been moved there as well.

Merkel has been pushing to keep the sanctions in place for Russia.  With the odd and twitchy alleged rape case in Germany with the Russian German girl, there have been rumors the Russians have been using it as a method to try to undermine Merkel to get a more pliable German government.  Russo German relations have deteriorated.

American Russian relations have not improved either.  In fact, the Russians have designated the US as a major threat.  The US has labeled Russia a threat, but not an existential one.  The US is moving heavy armored equipment back into Europe to be cached in case of a war.  Many items of US military procurement and development are now being line itemed to deal with Russia as well as China.

Fighting in Pisky Ukraine on 11/24/2015

Ukraine War Update: око за око, газ для власти, лягушка.

The fighting has further intensified.  11 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the last 48 hours.  Fighting remains mostly concentrated around Donetsk and Gorlovka, but stretches down to the Sea of Azov and sputters in the Lugansk Oblast.

Russia is threatening retaliation for the power cut off from Crimea.  Two of the economic threats Russia has trotted out would be a gas cut off and the other would be to cut off coal.  I'm unsure whether or not the coal cut off would be Russia would stop buying Ukrainian coal, stop allowing coal from the Donbass into the rest of Ukraine or stop selling Ukraine coal.  I think the first, but I've not seen a clearly worded story on which as yet.

I find it darkly amusing Putin says Turkey stabbed Russia in the back over the shootdown of the Su-24 Fencer.  Putin did a more thorough job on Ukraine and Ukraine was supposed to be Russia's brother.

Ukraine War Update: флиртует с катастрофой, лягушка

As stated this weekend, someone blew up the power infrastructure for Crimea.  Power has been down by and large across the Peninsula.  There has been a question as to what exactly happened.  Some reports suggest an explosion in the Russian occupied zone.  Others are stating power lines from Ukraine were targeted on Ukrainian territory.  It appears to be the former is what happened, but its not 100% clear.

Pro Ukrainian protesters and Crimean Tatars blocked access to places on the Ukrainian side for repairs.  However, the Crimean Tatar leader relented and allowed repair crews access to the site.  If this was an attack on Ukrainian territory by the Tatars, this is a disaster in many, many ways.  Ukraine cannot root out Russia from the Peninsula.  The international community is utterly disinterested in helping as well.  So, if the Tatars did this, it will only rain down hell on those residents still within Crimea.

To punctuate what the potential for disaster, the Russians rolled tanks to the Crimean "border."  The threat was pretty obvious: restore power or else.

However, Poroshenko seems to think disaster is the hot chick and suggested completely blockading the Crimean Peninsula: power, water, freight, traffic, etc.  One could hope they will not go through with this and Poro was just doing the dumb jock talk about the hot chick (all talk, no do).  However, it looks like reports are starting to come in that this is going to become official Ukrainian government policy.

Donetsk airport

That picture is from two days ago.  This morning, the Donbass has 15 C (59 F) weather.

The situation in Ukraine in the Donbass is rapidly deteriorating.  Russia banned all food from Ukraine and is threatening other sanctions against Ukraine.  No plausible explanation was given. Ukraine reciprocated.  Ukraine has not bought gas from the Russians and use in Ukraine is down 19% from the year previously.  No doubt this is partially because chunks of the Donbass are not paid for by the Ukrainians any more.

Fighting in the Donbass is escalating.  Two soldiers were killed last night.  The area around Donetsk is the worst location for the fighting.  However, our old sore spot of Shirokyne has lit up like a Christmas tree and fighting has flared there, too.  Some fights have been noted in the Lugansk Oblast as well at the contact line: IEDs are starting to appear in Lugansk.  The fighting is not short bursts, but now extending for hours. 

The people are expecting the worst in the Donbass: in Gorlovka they have started sandbagging their windows.

Ukraine War Update: Они сделали завалы и назвал его мир, лягушка.

Fighting is pretty much ongoing around Donetsk and Gorlovka.  This past week, a school was destroyed in Gorlovka by a GRAD volley.  This could indicate the UAF has started matching fire for fire or its possible its the DNR pulling a stunt again.  They have been shown to bombard their own people, lightly, for propaganda purposes.  At one point, the OSCE, the largely useless twits, recorded a total 155 explosions in a 24 hour period.  However, this is from a single observation point in Donetsk, rather than in Gorlovka or elsewhere.

Today, the OSCE heard 109 explosions in 19 minutes alone in Donetsk.  

There are GRAD shots on a regular basis but often a single rocket from a launcher as a dog bark: look, we can attack in force from 'here.'

Gasoline seems to have evaporated from the Donbass.  The above video is of the line to get into the gas station to get tankful.  It looks as bad if not worse than the gas shortages in the 1970s in the US.  Rumors are the DNR troops snarfled this up for their trucks, etc.

There are rumors a large number (thousands) of new Russian troops arrived in the Donbass.  The troops are often caught vk'ing their locations and destinations as confirmation.

I have been on record as stating the reason the war halted earlier was because Putin needed to fight in Syria and could afford a single war at a time.  I may have been off.  He may have wanted to get the West on his side in Syria and needed to stop the fight in the Donbass because of it rather than having a money issue.  Since the horror of Paris, he may be feeling he doesn't need to worry about Ukraine angering the West and that could be part of the uptick of the fighting in Ukraine.  I hope I am over reading things.  I do that occasionally.  OTOH...

Ukrainian War Update: Здесь идут ГРАД снова, падая на голову, как нового взрыва, лягушки.

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The war is heating up as Ukraine slips towards winter's embrace. The video above shows GRADs being fired from Donetsk at the UAF on friday.  It is far from the only artillery strike taking place in the Donbass.

Infantry assaults have also taken place.  Today an assault took place by the DNR at Avdiivka.  It was repulsed, but it is far from the only attempt to take ground.

In Gorlovka, tanks clashed and at least one attempt to take ground by the DNR took place.

Maryinka was shelled by 122mm artillery and had another infantry assault.

The DNR has moved a lot of equipment into Makiivka despite claiming to have completed its withdrawal. 

Fighting, in the WWI style Sitzkrieg, took place all along the line of contact.

The Ukrainians have started to redeploy their artillery to the line of contact.

While the world is looking at the horrors of Syria and the recent attack on Paris, Minsk III is failing and the horrors of war are returning to Ukraine.  To be honest, I am surprised.  I thought Ukraine would not have its war while Russia was involved in Syria, for cost reasons.  It seems I was wrong.  Or soon will be. 

Pity poor Ukraine, so close to the embrace of Mother Russia and so far from God (to steal here).

Ukraine War Update:В хрипит в полночь, Лягушка

The fighting continues in the Donbass.  The video above was from tonight in Donetsk.  Artillery 122mm (mortars?  Small guns?) has joined in regularly.  The ceasefire is steadily eroding and the fighting has pretty much spread up and down the contact line in the Donetsk Oblast.  There appears to be less happening in the Lugansk Oblast for whatever reason.  The use of anything larger than squad sized mortars seems to only happen intermittently outside of the immediate vicinity of Donetsk and Gorlovka. 

The question is why?  There's no discernible reason as far as I can see within Ukraine.  I cannot help but fear a distraction is needed by Putin from Syria...and Ukraine makes for a good one for his people.

Ukraine War Update: Угли в огне первых, лягушачий

Fighting has been flared and become largely sustained around Donetsk.  The fighting includes small arms, mortars and tanks regularly.  However, both sides accuse the other of using heavy artillery.  To be honest, I am pretty sure both sides HAVE used heavy artillery.  The pullback has always been something a joke.

Hot spots have been in Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Pisky, Avdiivka and Optyne.

Fighting has been reported around Gorlovka and near Shirokyne.

Zakharchenko has reiterated the DNR ought to include ALL of the former Oblast of Donetsk.

Randy pointed out an article on some of the fighters in the Donbass have started percolating back to Russia proper. At least one irregular was arrested in Moldova.  From what I gather, in uniform.  hmm.

Sadly, Ukraine's Rada blocked a bill protecting the rights of the LGBT community.  As a result, they are unlikely to get visa free travel in Europe.

Ukraine War Update: an Ammo Dump in Svatove, Ukraine Blew up

This is being described as an act of sabotage.

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