Ukraine War Update: Маленькие трещины в это, и что

Maryinka keeps getting intermittently pasted with artillery but there are also significant infantry clashes. Though it appears neither side is attempting to advance.

Avdiivka gets hit somewhat less often.

Bezymenne reported ~20 salvos of artillery.

Makiivka had outgoing artillery fire.

Putilovka had tanks or SPG open up today, too.

There was shooting west of Gorlovka, but today they held some sort of music festival. o.O

In Lugansk, a Russian army SA-13 battalion was IDed.

3 Ukrainian soldiers disappeared on the "border" with Crimea. Did they go AWOL or were they kidnapped (what Ukrainian sources are saying)?

The purge of Purgin supporters is continuing.

On Tyanbok, head of Svoboda is addressing his people on Tuesday. This is making folks nervous. Doubly so since the Sich battalion is calling all its members to Kiev.

There are lots of little cracks in the peace.  The disturbing thing is, despite even the OSCE seeing the mortar attacks and solid reports of heavy artillery attacks, the Ukrainian high command keeps stating there were only small arts clashes.  They keep emphasizing the ceasefire is working and its only frustrated small groups clashing.  Not exactly the truth and that's worrisome.

Ukraine: Clawing to Keep From Being Pulled Under

The Pro Russian forces - the Little Green Men - made some pretty bold moves today.  They hit at least Gorlovka, Kraysni Lymon, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  They succeeded in taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  There was a shoot out in Kramatorsk: the video was taken and resides above.  In Slavyansk, the mayor even came out in support of the Little Green Men and helped build the modest, more symbolic barricade and the LGM set up check points outside of town.  In Kraysni Lymon, the people came out to make a human chain to block the LGMs from taking the police station.  In Gorlovka, the police won the shootout with the LGM.  Reports are the LGM worked as a unit, a platoon, actually.  That's not a good sign.  It definitely means they are not merely locals.  

A similar attempt was made in Donetsk to grab more buildings.  It did not succeed.  There may have been something similar in Kharkov, but the populace was out in spades today for Ukraine.

A bus full of LGM was caught outside Artemovska.  The police and activists chased down and disabled the bus.  here's a link.  Its something I've been avoiding in these updates.  This time I think I ought.

The Ukrainian authorities need to make a move against these groups.  By dithering over Donetsk, they have encouraged the second wave of LGM.  I understand their reasoning: Russia has been threatening to intervene.  The problem is the Russians are effectively in process of intervening now and no action makes it completely likely the regular russian army will follow.  This is the playbook of Crimea.  They are doing it again.   Dithering plays into the hands of the Russians.  There has been a report or two they may be getting together an armed response.  We'll see.

There are reports Lavrov has pulled out of the four way talks with the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine.  this is conflicting with a lot of others.  I sincerely hope they are not pulling out and the Russians are not just playing for time.  It has been confirmed Russia is talking about pulling out of the talks if Ukraine responds to the LGM with force.  That'd definitely imply the Russians didn't want to have them in the first place because the Ukrainians MUST reply with force.

In other news, Biden is going to go to Ukraine later in the month to show support.  It'd be support if the 173rd went with him.  Otherwise, it's what the Ukrainians call 'empty words.'

The Chinese in other news have expressed support for the IMF to bailout Ukraine.  While there was a bit of equivocating, it was much less than before. 

Ukraine: Not Yet Conquered

 

The battles for the East are continuing.  It appears the Pro Russian groups have been completely ousted in Kharkov: 70 arrests were made.  However, that is not the case in Lugansk and Donetsk.  In Lugansk, the pro russian forces have taken hostages (most have been freed).  These guys are starting to cross into the terrorist category.

I suspect that with Kharkov cleared, the next city to be is Lugansk.  Donetsk is the hardest of the lot with so many having shown up in support of the 'People's Republic of Donetsk': I've seen claims of up to two thousand.  The picture above is from the admin building the pro russian folks have barricaded themselves in.  Earlier in the day, a human chain of women - babuschkas really - 'blocked' access until the barricade was in place. 

Timoshenko has arrived in Donetsk.  I am sure this will completely help the situation.  Good grief.  That woman is poison.

 Everyone in the West is stating the Russians are behind the latest attempts at seizing the east's admin buildings and whatnot.  US Secretary of State Kerry even called it a pretext for an invasion.

There was a fight in the Rada in Kiev.  The communist rep Symonenko running for president who is actually from Donetsk accused government in Kiev of playing into Russia's hands by removing the "protestors" in the east.  One of the Right Sector twits attacked him.  Whether he's right or a Russian puppet, fist fights in the Rada?  Really?

The US has moved another Burke class destroyer into the Black Sea officially in support of Ukraine.  NATO is increasing troops and planes on the border of Ukraine.  (C'mon Obama, just say '173rd')

NATO is apparently supplying Ukraine with nonweapon supplies for its military.  Fuel, trucks, food, etc.  This may make a difference.  You can't convert over an entire army in a month to new weapons, but trucks can definitely help.  They need to supply ATGMs and SAMs for the Ukrainian soldiers next.  That will make another difference.

There is a rumor (of course there is!) the pro Russian forces are supposed to make a lot of blood shed tonight to provide the pretext for Russia's intervention.  We'll see.

The EU, America, Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet over the crisis.  I suspect Russia will obstruct or obfuscate and delay.  

Russia, btw, was forced to cancel a bond sale.  No one wanted to buy at the prices they wanted to offer.  The market DOES care what Russia is up to.