Saturday, April 12, 2014

Ukraine: Clawing to Keep From Being Pulled Under




The Pro Russian forces - the Little Green Men - made some pretty bold moves today.  They hit at least Gorlovka, Kraysni Lymon, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  They succeeded in taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  There was a shoot out in Kramatorsk: the video was taken and resides above.  In Slavyansk, the mayor even came out in support of the Little Green Men and helped build the modest, more symbolic barricade and the LGM set up check points outside of town.  In Kraysni Lymon, the people came out to make a human chain to block the LGMs from taking the police station.  In Gorlovka, the police won the shootout with the LGM.  Reports are the LGM worked as a unit, a platoon, actually.  That's not a good sign.  It definitely means they are not merely locals.  

A similar attempt was made in Donetsk to grab more buildings.  It did not succeed.  There may have been something similar in Kharkov, but the populace was out in spades today for Ukraine.

A bus full of LGM was caught outside Artemovska.  The police and activists chased down and disabled the bus.  here's a link.  Its something I've been avoiding in these updates.  This time I think I ought.

The Ukrainian authorities need to make a move against these groups.  By dithering over Donetsk, they have encouraged the second wave of LGM.  I understand their reasoning: Russia has been threatening to intervene.  The problem is the Russians are effectively in process of intervening now and no action makes it completely likely the regular russian army will follow.  This is the playbook of Crimea.  They are doing it again.   Dithering plays into the hands of the Russians.  There has been a report or two they may be getting together an armed response.  We'll see.

There are reports Lavrov has pulled out of the four way talks with the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine.  this is conflicting with a lot of others.  I sincerely hope they are not pulling out and the Russians are not just playing for time.  It has been confirmed Russia is talking about pulling out of the talks if Ukraine responds to the LGM with force.  That'd definitely imply the Russians didn't want to have them in the first place because the Ukrainians MUST reply with force.

In other news, Biden is going to go to Ukraine later in the month to show support.  It'd be support if the 173rd went with him.  Otherwise, it's what the Ukrainians call 'empty words.'

The Chinese in other news have expressed support for the IMF to bailout Ukraine.  While there was a bit of equivocating, it was much less than before. 

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