Car Bomb Used to Attack Lugansk People's Republic's Leader

The leader of a self-proclaimed separatist republic in eastern Ukraine was injured in a suspected car bombing Saturday, local media reported.

Igor Plotnitsky, the head of the Lugansk People's Republic, "was wounded this morning as a result of a powerful explosion that occurred near his car," the official pro-Russian rebels' news agency said.

Plotnitsky, 52, was being treated at a local hospital along with several other people who suffered injuries in the blast in the city of Lugansk, the report said.

The rebels' news agency claimed the explosion was an "attempt on the life" of their leader.

link.

Ukraine War Update: что скрывается в Луганске? И Макеевка?

In Makeevka, ten new Grad launchers were delivered today.  Likewise, several fuel trucks showed up.  Apparently, lots of tanks, artillery, etc. rolled up to the Auchen Supermarket in Makeevka.  Note the locale vs the highways.

In Krasnodon, mobile phones have been down since 5 PM Ukrainian time.  Again, note the position on the highways.  In fact, we are getting reports of cell phones going down all over the Donbas now.

There are lots of reports of attacks by the Ukrainians on Russian/Donnie Reb positions.  The Ukrainians are looking rather confused since they are only responding right now.  They are claiming the DNR/LNR is doing its usual false information.  

However, the LNR has positioned a lot of equipment near the front line for a "count attack" against the coming Ukrainian assault.

In fact, the Russians & LNR may have set up pontoon bridges across the Seversky Donets River.

Residents in Lutuhyne and  Molodohvardiisk report very large Russian army forces passing through.  Supposedly another force passed through Krasnodon soon after the cell phones went down.

Let's hope these are locals just overreacting to Donnie Reb's normal movements.  However, with the reports of bridges and the no cell service, it might be something scary.  

Then again, we've had several scares and several small offensive attempts too. 

Ukraine Captures two Russian GRU Soldiers

Ukrainian troops have arrested two Russian servicemen in the country's separatist eastern territories, a Ukrainian military spokesman said on Sunday, reporting further casualties in rebel attacks despite a three-month-old ceasefire deal.

Ukraine and NATO accuse Moscow of supporting pro-Russian separatists with troops and military supplies, a charge the Kremlin has repeatedly denied.

"Two Russian servicemen are under arrest - our investigators are working with them," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a briefing, without giving further details.

Three Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 17 wounded in the past 24 hours, he said. Two of the deaths were a result of a mortar attack near the town of Svitlodarsk, northeast of separatist-controlled Donetsk.

link.

This was not a walk up and arrest them sort of situation.  They were VERY badly wounded in the process of the capture (pix here, but not safe for lunch).  They were picked up in Shchastya.  Note: this is on the Ukrainian side of the ceasefire line.  For those which don't know the Russian aphabet soup of agencies, this is the GRU.

If it were not for the fact this family of acronyms has been abused so badly already and often by folks I don't care for, I'd say Ukraine as a Ceasefire In Name Only.  The difference between now and before is while both sides have been pounding the crap out of each other, neither has launched an offensive to take ground.  Its just WW1 without the over the top mass attacks right now.    frex.

Ukraine: Grinding Patterns

Today was a strange one for Ukraine.

First off, the ruling coalition for Ukraine collapsed when the Udar and Svobada parties withdrew from the government. Yatsenyuk has resigned. The reason for this was to force new elections and to get try to force out the members of the Rada seen as obstructionist and 'traitors.' I sincerely hope Yatsenyuk regains his position after the election. Volodymyr Groysman was appointed as PM in his place.

Secondly, the Rada is has a bill before it to renew its nuclear status: 4351a.

The Ukrainians have taken Lysychansk.This is just across the river from Severodonetsk which the Ukrainians had just taken in the past few days in Lugansk Oblast.  The Ukrainians also took Verkhniokamenskiy in the Donetsk Oblast.

The rebels keep blowing up bridges. More in Donetsk Oblast especially. One in Gorlovka again and another with a train. Multiple sites have been blown for the railroad tracks.

The Russians have been increasing the # of shellings from their territory. One Ukrainian brigade (79th) got hit hard. This reminds me of the fights between the separatists and Georgians. I think the Ukrainians are aware of the danger and are trying to avoid the same outcome.  The US government has acknowledged this...finally.

There is an interesting video this morning (yesterday if you are a Ukrainian reading this) from a car-camera driving through Lugansk at 9:30 am.  There is not a soul in sight.

Both Canada and Europe added more sanctions.

Ukraine: a New, Hopeful Pattern

I chose the wrong time going on vacation!  A lot has happened in Ukraine.  A lot which is hopeful.  if you are a Ukrainian Nationalist at least.

The Ukrainians have taken Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Riznykivka, Artemivsk, Kostyantynivka, Semenivka & Druzhkivka, in Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainians have taken Zakotne, Raygorodka, RaiOleksandrivka & Korolevka in Lugansk Oblast.

The Ukrainians took back Karlivka in Poltava Oblast.

The Ukrainian army is on a roll.

The Ukrainian army has stated it will blockade Donetsk & Lugansk rather than fight their way in. However, this may be a ruse.

The fighting has been reported in Krasnodon, near Donetsk, on the Russian border and on the outskirts of Lugansk.

The Ukrainians brought food into the areas retaken.

Donetsk had a rally in support of the DPR. It has had a larger than previous rally attempts.

The welcoming of the National Guard in Kramatorsk by some residents was less than friendly. The UNG kept their temper and did not open fire.

More tanks have been reported to have crossed the border again.  There had been, or seemed to be, a pause after the Ukrainians captured the tank which was from the Russian stocks.  No more.

There have been multiple railroad bridges which have been destroyed.  Most recently, one in the Donetsk region which had a train on it.  However, two others were just prior.  

The Maidan movement went back into the square again.  They have stated they will not leave until demands are met.  I'm still trying to figure them out.  They won and yet they seem to think a nation as crippled as Ukraine can be healed in days.

Someone came into the Maidan and started looking for nonSlavs.  No word as to why.

Others were shot.  The government and the Maidan agree this was an attempt to cause tension between the Maidan and government.

The battles are ongoing, the war is far from done, but Ukraine is definitely not yet dead.

Ukraine: Patterns of Dying or Flaring Embers

The ceasefire has been ordered to be extended for another three days. 

The negotiations continue, but nothing has come to fruition.

Ukraine signed the association agreement with the EU.  So did Moldova and Georgia. 

The Russians have threatened the Ukrainians if the EU pact harms the Russian economy.

A national guard base in Donetsk was taken by the pro Russians.

In Kramatorsk, the LGM used a reported *8* tanks to attack the Ukrainian army.  Casualties reported were very light considering.  Were they really tanks?  Or AFVs of some other stripe?

Another tank was used at Artemivsk against the Ukrainian army.

Another attack took place near Slavyansk.

Near Lugansk, another 25 armoured fighting vehciles crossed into Ukraine.

In videos online, there's an increasing number of American Hummers and trucks the Ukrainian army is using. 

The Russians are staging a very large number of AFVs in the Voronezh Oblast.

Ukraine: Patterns of Unraveling (again)

Whatever Kiev says, there is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

There have been several clashes on the border in Lugansk Oblast.  

The fighting in Donetsk has been particularly bad.  

The LGM attacked multiple checkpoints to try to break out again in Slavyansk. 

The pro russians attacked the Kramatorsk airport too.

The OSCE team in Donetsk has been released.

I am concerned about a confrontation between police and the Right Sector on the road to Kirovograd.

Poroshenko outlined his plan for peace and the Union of People's Republics stated they wanted to negotiate more.

In theory, tomorrow Poroshenko will be signing the deal with the European Union.  I wonder how Yanukovich feels about that?

Ukraine: UnPatterned Quiet

Ukraine has been relatively quiet.  That's relatively.

Talks are ongoing.  No progress really.

The Lugansk People's Republic cut off the webcams they could find there.  This followed a large number of tanks and apcs being seen on the webcams this morning.

That followed attacks on the border guards near Lugansk and the national guard troops there, too.

Near Krasny Liman, Ukrainian soldiers were attacked with several wounded.

NATO countries are setting up some sort of trust funds for the Ukrainian military.  What this is exactly, I am not sure. 

Russia officially repealed its legal statute allowing it to invade Ukraine (what about Crimea?!)

And the west has stated they are ready to introduce more sanctions.

Ukraine is set to sign the agreement which sparked the entire Euromaidan revolution on friday.

Ukraine: No Ceasing the Fire of the Pattern

On the face of things, there is some hope for ending the blood shed in Ukraine.  The rebels are talking to Kiev.  Kiev declared a ceasefire.  The Russians are supposedly repealing the bill which authorized Putin to invade.  It looks very promising.  

However, this story is Ukrainian, not Disney and the Russians are involved.  Their tales are quite...dark.

The talks have all but stalled.

The Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics have announced they are uniting into becoming the Union of People's Republics.

During the 'ceasefire' a transport helicopter was shotdown (MANPADS).

A railroad bridge was bombed connecting the West to the East near Novodanylivka.

Bombs went off at the Donetsk railstation.

A bomb went off under a train elsewhere.  

Fighting is reported in Donetsk near the airport. 

Three tanks have been shelling the Ukrainian held airport at Kramatorsk for two days straight.

Slavyansk has a fight going on now.  From what I gather, its a break out attempt by the LGM.

Multiple border crossings have been attacked.

The Russians continue to pour weapons into the Donbass.

The Russians continue to build up on the Ukrainian border.

 

Poroshenko has stated unless the attacks by the LGM stop, he's canceling the ceasefire now. 
Putin has stated the ceasefire ought to be extended.

The "ceasefire" expires in 41 hours. 

Ukraine: Patterns Within Patterns

The fighting continues in Ukraine.

Battles are intensifying around Lugansk.  It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are moving very large forces there.  I've seen videos of company sized tank units in the area and more.  I suspect there will be a big push in the next week for the area.

There are clashes in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.  The shelling is brutal at times, but not long lasting. This appears to be being done by the Ukrainians.

The LGM on the other hand are doing the same back to Krasnyi Liman.  Most recently the hospital there was shelled.  It appears to be mortar fire.

The Russians are turning their equipment supplies to the LGM and levees to from a drip to a dribble.  Reports are of 3 more GRAD MLRS crossed today, that were seen.  Probably more. 

The Russian army's second build up by the Ukrainian border has been confirmed by NATO and the White House.  More and more this looks like we had a troop rotation.

Poroshenko was on the phone with Putin to discuss and try to reach an agreement on the cease fire.  Later Lavrov accused Poroshenko of merely playing for time.  The irony is Pushilin (the DNR's rep) was the first to reject the truce.  

Digging through the videos online and sources of information online, there is a LOT of blatantly stunningly false information.  This is especially true from the Russian sources - Russia Today, etc.  Stunningly, they often splice in video from Iraq from 4+ years ago and state its happening in Ukraine, esp when it comes to the American troops or Mercs, in Ukraine.  The dubs of American Congress critters are also amusing: you can find almost all the originals online.

Ukraine: Patterns of Death

Ukraine suffers. There's no other way to put it.  

The bombardment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk continues.  There are some pretty depressing videos coming out of there about the civvies.  

There is VERY heavy fighting at Shchastya (Schaste). At least 15 Ukrainian soldiers were killed there. 

Just to the south is Metalist, which the Ukrainian army took a few days ago, but there are noises it might still be contested.

There are two tanks in Donetsk.  There are claims these are T-72s again.  There has been a lot more equipment coming across the Russian border.  Whether or not these are really T-72s, I cannot say.  My Russian tank IDing days are about 20 years in the past and the ones which recently crossed from Russia were T-64s, rather than T-72s.  These may, in fact, be the same tanks reported before, but moved south from Gorlovka.  I would NOT be surprised if there was more.

There is a video of a guy walking around a T-64 which is claimed to be a captured Ukrainian army tank.  It seems abandoned as much as anything.

In Gorlovka, there is a report of an Ukrainian Su-25 being shot down.

There are reports the LGM have started quartering their troops in people's houses.  That ended well for the brits here and Ukrainians are just as fierce about their homes, if not more so.

The Russians continue to move more troops to the border.  Its feeling more and more like the earlier withdrawal was a troop rotation.  There are plenty of videos. 

Kiev is increasingly stating they believe the gas line blast was intentional.

Poroshenko is offering a unilateral ceasefire. Iryna Gerashchenko is appointed the peace envoy to the east. Pushilin rejected Poroshenko's peace plan and ceasefire. 

I am increasingly concerned about the Euromaidan activists.  They're protesting, including with the Right Sector, with increasing fervor in Kiev.  I understand their anger and frustration, but...

Ukraine: The Pattern of Nearing the Bonfire

The Ukrainian 'Anti Terrorist Operation' continues in the East.  

Fighting has moved into the city of Slavyansk, apparently on Artema Street.  Fighting is also reported at Semenivka and Kramatorsk.

Weirdness continues with the Little Green Men.  

In Lysychansk, in the Lugansk Oblast, they have declared their own, independent People's Republic, declaring independence from the Lugansk People's Republic.

The self declared mayor of Slavyansk, Ponomariov, has disappeared.  There are reports he has been arrested by the LGM.

The LGM have kidnapped the Gorlovka mayor.

The location of the video of the border guards vs the LGM has been ceded to the LGM (Marynovka).  The LGM claim they they have control of over 200 km of the border. 

Additionally, the Ukrainian government has been negotiating with Russia over the gas bills.  This has stalled.  The Russians claim they are offering the same deal as under Yanukovich, or at least the same discount.  The Ukrainians claim there are a lot of hooks which are unacceptable.

Ukraine: Clashes Within the Pattern

The videos above were from the battle between the border guards and the LGM.  It seems that there were wounded, even critically, but no immediate fatalities.

There are intense battles in Slavyansk, Lugansk and Kramatorsk going on right now.  

The number of foreigners which have come into Eastern Ukraine have, by reliable sources, now exceeded 10,000 men.  The total killed by the Ukrainian army, as claimed by the Ukrainian Army, is 500. 

The LGM have taken over Shakhtarsk as well.

Rumors have it the LGM are employing IEDs in buildings and on the road. 

In Lugansk there was something odd.  An RPG was fired into a building which killed some of the pro russian shadow government.  It killed a number of passersby as well.  It seems to have been fired by another faction of the pro russians.

The Russians introduced a quixotic resolution to the UN to have safe passages for food & relief in eastern Ukraine.  They vetoed this for Syria.  I wonder what they are thinking will find safe passage, eh?  

Ukraine: Swirling of Patterns

The clashes in the east intensified.  Today a helicopter was shot down and 14 to 16 soldiers died.  Inclusive was an Ukrainian general.  It was downed by a MANPADS.

There were other clashes between the LGM and Ukrainians. The largest was near Lugansk at Oleksandrivsk.  The LGM apparently destroyed supply depots of equipment before being beaten back.

Interestingly, in Donetsk especially, the different factions of the LGM are turning on one another.  One group attacked another and after a brief battle captured and still holds the survivors.

There are reports of some LGM attempting to cross back into Russia.  Those are dwarfed by the much largest numbers coming across into Ukraine: last count over 50 large trucks worth, potentially up to 2000.

Latest report is the Russians really are pulling back from the border.  

Poroshenko will be inaugurated on June 7th.

Ukraine: Patterns Strengthened

In the East, the Ukrainian army and security services have made significant progress.  They have started capturing important LGM personnel in Kramatorsk and pushed into Donetsk itself.  

Concerning though are the reports the border guards are basically besieged on the Russian border by groups of armed men passing into the country.  It might be this is an exaggeration or only localized rather than commonplace across the entire eastern border. 

The LGM have, in some cases, started sporting Russian military insignia. 

The LGM seem to be turning on the local populace even more than before.  Mortars and heavy machine guns have been reported opening fire on residential areas in Slavyansk and Donetsk. 

There was a report, which I think I missed reporting, that Ukrainian troops opened fire (a few days ago) on Russian helicopters which were probing from Crimea.  The shots were only in warning.

Unconfirmed also is the account of the Ukrainians having shot down a Russian drone.  There are some wild rumors about this UAV which I won't reproduce.  If true, at least that it was a Russian drone, that additionally complicates matters.  If the wild rumors are true...o.O  I have significant doubts though.

It appears Putin is pulling back some troops.  Albeit slowly.  My craaaazy thought which is almost 99.999% certainly wrong is Putin may have less control over his military than we'd like to think.  Perhaps he did, goes the nasty little voice in my head, order the troops back weeks ago.  And they did not follow it.  Its an extremely frightening thought and completely wrong.  I hope.

Ukraine the Tragedy and the Lull

(hey, look!  a Hummer!  I guess not all given by the US were stolen!)

By no means was today a good day for Ukraine, whether you are rooting for Kiev or for Moscow.

The offensive against the LGM in Slavyansk stopped.  The rumor is it was because the LGM wanted to 'negotiate' over the OSCE observers they hold.  Were they threatening to kill them?  IDK.  Its about the only thing I can think of off the top of my head which would cause the operation to halt.

Two Mi-24 Hinds operated by the Ukrainians were shot down...by man portable SAMs.  That's definitely something the locals would have!

Reports are of 2 to 4 Ukrainian soldiers dead, more wounded and 20 LGM dead and a similar number wounded from around Slavyansk.  There are supposedly operations elsewhere which may have others dead & wounded.

Odessa eclipsed Slavyansk though in tragedy: 43+ are dead and many, many more are in the hospitals.  The LGM started a march and attempted to pull their Donbass/Crimea stunts in Odessa.  The populace turned out and got into running battles.  A sniper even showed up taking potshots at one side or another (claims are he was pro Russian).  The LGM seized the Trade Union building.  This caught fire.  At least 38 burned to death.  Oddly, the folks trying to help them the most were the pro Ukrainian crowds. 

In Lugansk, the police took back the admin buildings.  Apparently the new Chief of Police is a ballsy SOB.

The Russians called for an Emergency UN Security Council meeting.  Largely a repeat of the past silliness.

We will see who takes the initiative next: Turchie and Yatz or Putty Pie.

Ukraine: Clawing to Keep From Being Pulled Under

The Pro Russian forces - the Little Green Men - made some pretty bold moves today.  They hit at least Gorlovka, Kraysni Lymon, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  They succeeded in taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.  There was a shoot out in Kramatorsk: the video was taken and resides above.  In Slavyansk, the mayor even came out in support of the Little Green Men and helped build the modest, more symbolic barricade and the LGM set up check points outside of town.  In Kraysni Lymon, the people came out to make a human chain to block the LGMs from taking the police station.  In Gorlovka, the police won the shootout with the LGM.  Reports are the LGM worked as a unit, a platoon, actually.  That's not a good sign.  It definitely means they are not merely locals.  

A similar attempt was made in Donetsk to grab more buildings.  It did not succeed.  There may have been something similar in Kharkov, but the populace was out in spades today for Ukraine.

A bus full of LGM was caught outside Artemovska.  The police and activists chased down and disabled the bus.  here's a link.  Its something I've been avoiding in these updates.  This time I think I ought.

The Ukrainian authorities need to make a move against these groups.  By dithering over Donetsk, they have encouraged the second wave of LGM.  I understand their reasoning: Russia has been threatening to intervene.  The problem is the Russians are effectively in process of intervening now and no action makes it completely likely the regular russian army will follow.  This is the playbook of Crimea.  They are doing it again.   Dithering plays into the hands of the Russians.  There has been a report or two they may be getting together an armed response.  We'll see.

There are reports Lavrov has pulled out of the four way talks with the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine.  this is conflicting with a lot of others.  I sincerely hope they are not pulling out and the Russians are not just playing for time.  It has been confirmed Russia is talking about pulling out of the talks if Ukraine responds to the LGM with force.  That'd definitely imply the Russians didn't want to have them in the first place because the Ukrainians MUST reply with force.

In other news, Biden is going to go to Ukraine later in the month to show support.  It'd be support if the 173rd went with him.  Otherwise, it's what the Ukrainians call 'empty words.'

The Chinese in other news have expressed support for the IMF to bailout Ukraine.  While there was a bit of equivocating, it was much less than before. 

Ukraine: Not Yet Conquered

 

The battles for the East are continuing.  It appears the Pro Russian groups have been completely ousted in Kharkov: 70 arrests were made.  However, that is not the case in Lugansk and Donetsk.  In Lugansk, the pro russian forces have taken hostages (most have been freed).  These guys are starting to cross into the terrorist category.

I suspect that with Kharkov cleared, the next city to be is Lugansk.  Donetsk is the hardest of the lot with so many having shown up in support of the 'People's Republic of Donetsk': I've seen claims of up to two thousand.  The picture above is from the admin building the pro russian folks have barricaded themselves in.  Earlier in the day, a human chain of women - babuschkas really - 'blocked' access until the barricade was in place. 

Timoshenko has arrived in Donetsk.  I am sure this will completely help the situation.  Good grief.  That woman is poison.

 Everyone in the West is stating the Russians are behind the latest attempts at seizing the east's admin buildings and whatnot.  US Secretary of State Kerry even called it a pretext for an invasion.

There was a fight in the Rada in Kiev.  The communist rep Symonenko running for president who is actually from Donetsk accused government in Kiev of playing into Russia's hands by removing the "protestors" in the east.  One of the Right Sector twits attacked him.  Whether he's right or a Russian puppet, fist fights in the Rada?  Really?

The US has moved another Burke class destroyer into the Black Sea officially in support of Ukraine.  NATO is increasing troops and planes on the border of Ukraine.  (C'mon Obama, just say '173rd')

NATO is apparently supplying Ukraine with nonweapon supplies for its military.  Fuel, trucks, food, etc.  This may make a difference.  You can't convert over an entire army in a month to new weapons, but trucks can definitely help.  They need to supply ATGMs and SAMs for the Ukrainian soldiers next.  That will make another difference.

There is a rumor (of course there is!) the pro Russian forces are supposed to make a lot of blood shed tonight to provide the pretext for Russia's intervention.  We'll see.

The EU, America, Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet over the crisis.  I suspect Russia will obstruct or obfuscate and delay.  

Russia, btw, was forced to cancel a bond sale.  No one wanted to buy at the prices they wanted to offer.  The market DOES care what Russia is up to.