Ukraine War Update: лягушачий хрипит "О нет! Меркель, нет!"

Less humorous side. 

A Russian magazine leaked the Russian government compensated families of armed service members in January 2015. 

Two *THOUSAND* were compensated for KIA. 

3,200 for permanent disability.

This predates Debaltseve.

Ukraine Captures two Russian GRU Soldiers

Ukrainian troops have arrested two Russian servicemen in the country's separatist eastern territories, a Ukrainian military spokesman said on Sunday, reporting further casualties in rebel attacks despite a three-month-old ceasefire deal.

Ukraine and NATO accuse Moscow of supporting pro-Russian separatists with troops and military supplies, a charge the Kremlin has repeatedly denied.

"Two Russian servicemen are under arrest - our investigators are working with them," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a briefing, without giving further details.

Three Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 17 wounded in the past 24 hours, he said. Two of the deaths were a result of a mortar attack near the town of Svitlodarsk, northeast of separatist-controlled Donetsk.

link.

This was not a walk up and arrest them sort of situation.  They were VERY badly wounded in the process of the capture (pix here, but not safe for lunch).  They were picked up in Shchastya.  Note: this is on the Ukrainian side of the ceasefire line.  For those which don't know the Russian aphabet soup of agencies, this is the GRU.

If it were not for the fact this family of acronyms has been abused so badly already and often by folks I don't care for, I'd say Ukraine as a Ceasefire In Name Only.  The difference between now and before is while both sides have been pounding the crap out of each other, neither has launched an offensive to take ground.  Its just WW1 without the over the top mass attacks right now.    frex.

The Minsk Accord, One Week Later

I guest blog over at Noel Maurer's The Power and the Money about the progress or lack thereof on Minsk II.  To say things are not going well is to use British understatement.

Hey! Over There: On the incredible futility of the Minsk accord

I have a guest post over at Noel Maurer's The Power and the Money about my great confusion as to what the Europeans are attempting to do with the Minsk Accords.

Ukraine: Fire Turned Down While More Wood is Brought?

Today began a ceasefire. It supposed to blanket the entire Donbass. There are already reports of violations, but they are merely reports rather than a whole sale breakdown. The three areas I have heard about are an armoured attack by the rebels/Russians in Vesela Hora and shelling in Shchastya and in Donetsk.

Poroshenko has stated he does not believe the ceasefire will hold. The rebels attempted to hold a press conference in Moscow stating the Ukrainians had violated the ceasefire BEFORE it even started.

There are reports of Russian troops are moving up to the border of Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. Russian engineers are repairing the tarmac of the Lugansk airport.

Russia is also threatening to send in another humanitarian convoy. Interestingly, at least one of the men from the first convoy was buried in Russia for having "died on vacation."

Reports are the Russians suffering very significant

European enacted the sanctions, targeting the financial and energy industries as well as for specific people.  Russia's bond market is suffering more.

There have been conflicting reports as to what Poroshenko was promised by NATO.

The question now becomes what happens during and after the ceasefire. If it holds, are we going to see both sides rearm and reposition themselves for another round of fighting? Will the Russians come in and place peacekeepers in the Donbass, effectively making this a frozen conflict? Or will the West do for Ukraine what it did for Croatia?

We'll wait and see.