The Market is not Enough to end Fossil Fuel use

In recent years, proponents of clean energy have taken heart in the falling prices of solar and wind power, hoping they will drive an energy revolution. But a new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests otherwise: Technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions.

"If we don't adopt new policies, we're not going to be leaving fossil fuels in the ground," says Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management. "We need both a policy like a carbon tax and to put more R&D money into renewables."

While renewable energy has made promising gains in just the last few years -- the cost of solar dropped by about two-thirds from 2009 to 2014 -- new drilling and extraction techniques have made fossil fuels cheaper and markedly increased the amount of oil and gas we can tap into. In the U.S. alone, oil reserves have expanded 59 percent between 2000 and 2014, and natural gas reserves have expanded 94 percent in the same time.

"You often hear, when fossil fuel prices are going up, that if we just leave the market alone we'll wean ourselves off fossil fuels," adds Knittel. "But the message from the data is clear: That's not going to happen any time soon."

This trend -- in which cheaper renewables are outpaced by even cheaper fossil fuels -- portends drastic climate problems, since fossil fuel use has helped produce record warm temperatures worldwide.

The study concludes that burning all available fossil fuels would raise global average temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100; burning oil shale and methane hydrates, two more potential sources of copious fossil fuels, would add another 1.5 to 6.2 degrees Fahrenheit to that.

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Ten European Union Members Send Letter Stating Russo-German NordStream Gas Pipeline NOT in European Interests

Russia's plans to extend its gas link to Germany run counter to EU interests and risk further destabilizing Ukraine, 10 European governments said in a letter to the European Commission that called for a summit-level debate on the issue.

A group of European companies signed an agreement with Gazprom in September to expand its Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, bypassing Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Gazprom said it would halt gas deliveries to Ukraine while Kiev said it could find cheaper supplies elsewhere.

The letter, written on Thursday and signed by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, says the project should come under the closest regulatory scrutiny and called for "an inclusive debate" at next month's EU summit.

"The position of the European Commission on the Nord Stream II project will also essentially influence the perception of the EU's common foreign and security policy among its core allies and traditional partners," the letter, seen by Reuters, said.

World leaders have been urging Moscow and Ankara to avoid any escalation of tensions following the shooting down of a Russian jet by NATO member Turkey.

Russia's relationships with the European Union and Ukraine have been volatile since the annexation of Crimea in March last year.

The Nord Stream extension to deliver increased volumes of gas straight to Germany could have serious consequences for Kiev and EU nations, the letter said.

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Britain to Close Last Coal Power Plant by 2025

The UK's remaining coal-fired power stations will be shut by 2025 with their use restricted by 2023, Energy Secretary Amber Rudd has proposed.

Ms Rudd wants more gas-fired stations to be built since relying on "polluting" coal is "perverse".

Only if gas-fuelled power can fill the void created by closing coal-powered stations would coal plants be shut, she said.

Environmentalists are concerned little is being done to promote renewables.

Announcing the consultation, Ms Rudd said: "Frankly, it cannot be satisfactory for an advanced economy like the UK to be relying on polluting, carbon-intensive 50-year-old coal-fired power stations.

"Let me be clear: this is not the future.

"We need to build a new energy infrastructure, fit for the 21st century."

Former US vice president Al Gore, an active campaigner for clean energy, described the announcement as an "excellent and inspiring precedent".

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We're Doomed: Coal Demand Remains High in Asia, Preferred Over Natural Gas?

The shine is coming off once bright prospects for natural gas as the future fossil fuel of choice in Asia as power companies in India and Southeast Asia tap abundant and cheap domestic coal resources to generate electricity.

Asian loyalty to coal is shrinking the space available for natural gas just as supplies are ramping up after massive investments in U.S. and Australian output. Demand growth for natural gas is also slowing in top energy consumer China, further dampening the fuel's prospects.

While much attention has been given to a potential peak in China's coal demand and worries about emissions, in Asia alone this year power companies are building more than 500 coal-fired plants, with at least a thousand more on planning boards. Coal is not only cheaper than natural gas, it is often available locally and has no heavy import costs.

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THAR BE HELIUM IN THEM THAR HILLS!

Helium is the second most abundant element in the Universe, but it's relatively rare on Earth – so much so that some have called for a ban on party balloons to ward off a worldwide shortage. However, a team of scientists led by Diveena Danabalan of Durham University conducted a new study that indicates that there may be vast new sources of the gas in the western mountain regions of North America.

First detected in the spectrum of the Sun, in a century and a half helium has become a key resource in our high-tech world. The noble gas is used in cryogenics, MRI scanners, semiconductor manufacturing, welding, deep-sea diving, and blimps and balloons – though the latter makes up a surprisingly small fraction of the demand.

The problem is that even though helium makes up almost a quarter of all matter in the Universe, it's very rare on Earth with the main supply coming from natural gas wells in North America. This is because helium is a very light element that, once it escapes into the air, floats off into space. Hydrogen is lighter, but it's common on Earth because hydrogen is captured in molecules of water or organic compounds. Helium, on the other hand, forms no compounds even with itself except a few highly unstable ones under extraordinary laboratory conditions.

Recent studies have pointed to a drastic decline in known helium reserves and no large discoveries to replace them. This being the case, the fear is that we may run out of helium so soon that some scientists, such as Cambridge University chemist Peter Wothers, are calling for an end to its use in party balloons.

For the new study, a team of scientists from Durham and Oxford Universities looked at natural gas regions in North America, where they subjected gas samples from 22 wells in the United States and Canada to mass spectroscopy. By analyzing the isotopes of helium, neon, and argon, they were able to gain a better understanding of how helium is produced, transported, and trapped in the Earth.

Most helium on Earth is helium-4 (4He), which is produced by radioactive decay deep inside the planet. Over hundreds of millions of years, it migrates up to the crust, where it is released during periods of tectonic activity. By comparing the ratios of 4He with neon-20 (20Ne) in the helium-rich Hugoton-Panhandle gas field running through Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the team found that released helium dissolves in groundwater, which transports it to natural gas deposits. According to Danabalan, This mechanism indicates that much more helium is waiting to be tapped than previously thought.

"We identified neon isotope tracers which show a strong association between helium and groundwater," says Danabalan. "This means that in certain geological regions, groundwater transports large volumes of helium into natural gas fields, where trapping potential is greatest. This suggests that we have probably underestimated the volumes of helium which are actually available to explore.

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The Environmental Impacts of Fracking Examined

Greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of shale gas would be comparable to conventional natural gas, but the controversial energy source actually faired better than renewables on some environmental impacts, according to new research.

The UK holds enough shale gas to supply its entire gas demand for 470 years, promising to solve the country's energy crisis and end its reliance on fossil-fuel imports from unstable markets. But for many, including climate scientists and environmental groups, shale gas exploitation is viewed as environmentally dangerous and would result in the UK reneging on its greenhouse gas reduction obligations under the Climate Change Act.

University of Manchester scientists have now conducted one of the most thorough examinations of the likely environmental impacts of shale gas exploitation in the UK in a bid to inform the debate. Their research has just been published in the leading academic journal Applied Energy and study lead author, Professor Adisa Azapagic, will outline the findings at the Labour Party Conference in Manchester, England, today (Monday, 22 September).

"While exploration is currently ongoing in the UK, commercial extraction of shale gas has not yet begun, yet its potential has stirred controversy over its environmental impacts, its safety and the difficulty of justifying its use to a nation conscious of climate change," said Professor Azapagic.

"There are many unknowns in the debate surrounding shale gas, so we have attempted to address some of these unknowns by estimating its life cycle environmental impacts from 'cradle to grave'. We looked at 11 different impacts from the extraction of shale gas using hydraulic fracturing – known as 'fracking'– as well as from its processing and use to generate electricity."

The researchers compared shale gas to other fossil-fuel alternatives, such as conventional natural gas and coal, as well as low-carbon options, including nuclear, offshore wind and solar power (solar photovoltaics).

The results of the research suggest that the average emissions of greenhouse gases from shale gas over its entire life cycle are about 460 grams of carbon dioxide-equivalent per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. This, the authors say, is comparable to the emissions from conventional natural gas. For most of the other life-cycle environmental impacts considered by the team, shale gas was also comparable to conventional natural gas.

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Natural Gas Exports to Mexico From America

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Future Russian Hydrocarbon Production Depends on Western Technolical Help

Even as the decision to stop gas supplies to Ukraine aggravates tensions with the U.S. and Europe, Russia faces a dilemma: it still needs Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM:US), Halliburton Co. (HAL:US) and BP Plc (BP/) to maintain output from Soviet-era oil fields and develop Arctic and shale reserves.

Russia will require Western companies to provide the modern drilling and production gear -- and techniques such as hydraulic fracturing -- that are essential to unlocking its $8.2 trillion worth of barrels still underground.

The cutoff to Ukraine’s gas supply adds another layer of complexity for energy companies navigating a shifting geopolitical landscape in the search for new oil and gas supplies. Decision-makers from some of the West’s biggest oil explorers are gathering in Moscow this week at the World Petroleum Congress to pave the way to new deals.

[...]

Without Western expertise and technology, it’s unlikely Russia could sustain its current production levels, much less increase them, David Pursell, an analyst at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co., said in a phone interview. The country has “zero chance” of exploiting deep-water reserves without Western help, he said.

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I smell sanctions target.

Ukraine: The Pattern of Nearing the Bonfire

The Ukrainian 'Anti Terrorist Operation' continues in the East.  

Fighting has moved into the city of Slavyansk, apparently on Artema Street.  Fighting is also reported at Semenivka and Kramatorsk.

Weirdness continues with the Little Green Men.  

In Lysychansk, in the Lugansk Oblast, they have declared their own, independent People's Republic, declaring independence from the Lugansk People's Republic.

The self declared mayor of Slavyansk, Ponomariov, has disappeared.  There are reports he has been arrested by the LGM.

The LGM have kidnapped the Gorlovka mayor.

The location of the video of the border guards vs the LGM has been ceded to the LGM (Marynovka).  The LGM claim they they have control of over 200 km of the border. 

Additionally, the Ukrainian government has been negotiating with Russia over the gas bills.  This has stalled.  The Russians claim they are offering the same deal as under Yanukovich, or at least the same discount.  The Ukrainians claim there are a lot of hooks which are unacceptable.

Russia's Pivot to China With Monster Gas Deal

THERE had been plenty of time to negotiate a deal—more than a decade, in fact. What Russia and China needed was the right amount of pressure to seal it. That came in the form of Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. Eager to show America and Europe that he has other friends to turn to, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, on May 21st in Shanghai, secured a long-term agreement for Gazprom, a state-owned Russian firm, to sell natural gas to CNPC, a state-owned Chinese one. The final details of pricing—the main sticking point—were not released but the deal is thought to be worth about $400 billion over 30 years. It gives Mr Putin a much-needed strategic boost as he confronts those sanctions and suffers increasing isolation from the West.

China had reasons of its own to strike a deal.

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Putin Heads to China to Clinch gas Deal, Demonstrate NOT Isolated

Russian President Vladimir Putin heads to China on Tuesday to shore up eastern ties as relations with the West plunge to new lows over the Ukraine crisis.

During a two-day visit to Shanghai, Putin and Chinese host Xi Jinping will seek to clinch a raft of agreements including a landmark gas deal crucial for Moscow as Europe seeks to cut reliance on Russian oil and gas.

The two leaders will also take part in a regional security forum and oversee the start of joint naval exercises off Shanghai in the East China Sea.

Moscow’s relations with the United States and European Union have dived to a post-Cold War low in recent months over Russia’s seizure of Crimea and Western accusations the Kremlin is fomenting unrest in the east of Ukraine.

The West has slapped sanctions on some of Putin’s closest allies and threatened broader punitive measures if Moscow disrupts presidential polls in Ukraine on May 25.

Amid the showdown the China trip — previously billed as a visit with a heavy focus on energy ties — has acquired new symbolism, analysts said.

“In the face of sanctions, Russia needs to demonstrate that it is not isolated,” said Pyotr Topychkanov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Centre. “This will be the goal of Putin’s visit. He wants to show that Russia has allies.”

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Ukraine Seeks Energy Independence From Russia by 2020

The Ukrainian government is launching major natural gas extraction projects in the country, as joint ventures with leading Western companies. At present, Ukraine depends on Russian gas imports for more than 60 percent of Ukraine’s total annual consumption. The government’s goal is not simply to reduce Ukraine’s dependence on Russian gas, but—far more boldly—to eliminate that dependence entirely and achieve self-sufficiency by boosting gas extraction within the country.

The Ukrainian government is currently working with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell toward that goal. These projects are variously targeting shale gas, tight gas, and conventional gas, onshore and offshore on Ukrainian territory.

According to President Viktor Yanukovych’s statement, occasioned by the agreement just signed with Chevron (see [link]), the projects with Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron would enable Ukraine to become self-sufficient for gas supplies by 2020.

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Will Russia Get the Gas Pipeline to China Before Cheap American LNG Imports Arrive?

This week brought an increasingly familiar sight from Beijing: high-ranking Russian officials shaking hands with their Chinese counterparts. The occasion, just as it has been in recent months, was a slew of new energy deals that will further align the two countries as trading partners and bring Russia one step closer to becoming China’s primary fossil-fuel provider.

[...]

So everyone’s happy, right? Not exactly. Conspicuously absent from the flurry of new deals was the thing that Russia actually wants the most: a long-term agreement to sell China natural gas through a dedicated pipeline. Gazprom (SIBN:RU), the world’s largest gas company and by far the biggest company in Russia, left Beijing empty handed, again. Though officials indicated progress was made toward a deal, it’s hard to say that Gazprom is all that much closer to achieving its Chinese pipe dream, something it’s been after for more than a decade.

“I can remember first hearing about this pipeline in 1997,” says Derek Scissors, an Asia scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. The sticking point appears to be the price that China is willing to pay, and the Chinese don’t seem to be budging. China can afford to be patient, while Russia is eager to lock in a price before the U.S. begins flooding the market with cheap LNG exports in the next few years. “I think the Chinese have the upper hand here,” says Scissors.

“The Russians probably need this more desperately than the Chinese,” says Erica Downs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center and a former energy analyst at the CIA. Downs says she’s more optimistic about the prospects for the gas pipeline than she was a few years ago, but “another round of talks with no breakthroughs continues to illustrate how big a stumbling block price is,” she says.

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It may be that the world market price might be more dangerous than the actual import of American LNG. 

Ukraine Signs Gas Field Development Deals with Chevron, Exxon Mobil

Ukraine announced natural gas deals with Chevron Corp (CVX:US) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM:US) in a push to cut costs by two-thirds and reduce its dependence on Russia.

The Ukrainian government signed a production-sharing agreement with Chevron for extraction of shale gas in the Oleske field, Energy Minister Eduard Stavytskyi said today at a press conference in Kiev. Another production-sharing agreement with an Exxon-led group for exploring the Skifska field in the Black Sea may follow by the end of the month, he said.

Ukraine, dependent on expensive Russian gas imports for more than 60 percent of its needs, is accelerating efforts to diversify supply. Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) signed a production-sharing agreement in January to develop shale in the Yuzivska field in the eastern part of the country.

“The cost of gas production will be at least three times lower than what Ukraine is paying for the imports,” Stavytskyi told journalists during the press briefing.

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It will be quite a while before these go online, I suspect, but I have to wonder how much of this will be able to meet Ukrainian demand and how much will this allow Ukraine to extinguish the Gas Wars with Russia.

US Set to Overtake Saudi Arabia as Top Oil Exporter by 2017, Energy Independent by 2035

The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.

The forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to previous IEA reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.

"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector," the IEA said in its annual long-term report, giving one of the most optimistic forecasts for U.S. energy production growth to date.

"The recent rebound in U.S. oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity - with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge," it added.

The IEA said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.

"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.

IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said.

The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said.

Real or the dangers of the linear extrapolating brain eater striking? 

If this is the case, Global Warming Is Inevitable.  cuz the junkie just got a new source for its fix.