Man Made Earthquakes Have Been Happening in Texas Since the 1920s

Earthquakes triggered by human activity have been happening in Texas since at least 1925, and they have been widespread throughout the state ever since, according to a new historical review of the evidence published online May 18 in Seismological Research Letters.

The earthquakes are caused by oil and gas operations, but the specific production techniques behind these quakes have differed over the decades, according to Cliff Frohlich, the study's lead author and senior research scientist and associate director at the Institute for Geophysics at the University of Texas at Austin.

Frohlich said the evidence presented in the SRL paper should lay to rest the idea that there is no substantial proof for human-caused earthquakes in Texas, as some state officials have claimed as recently as 2015.

At the same time, Frohlich said, the study doesn't single out any one or two industry practices that could be managed or avoided to stop these kinds of earthquakes from occurring. "I think we were all looking for what I call the silver bullet, supposing we can find out what kinds of practices were causing the induced earthquakes, to advise companies or regulators," he notes. "But that silver bullet isn't here."

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Has the Oil Price Drop & Economic Sanctions Impacted Russian Military Modernization?

The drop in Russian state revenues has affected Russian military modernization to some extent, though the Russian government has made an effort to insulate the military from budget cuts. Although the 2015 military budget was cut by five percent mid-year, the total allocation was still 25 percent higher than the previous year’s budget. This allowed the military to continue its modernization process, conduct operations in Syria, and fulfill its training and exercise programs.

With oil prices remaining low, the military is facing a more difficult financial picture in 2016. In November, the Finance Ministry announced that the total 2016 defense budget would be largely the same as in 2015. However, last month, an additional five percent cut was announced, which will result in the first annual net decline in Russian defense spending since Vladimir Putin became president in 2000.

As a result of the deteriorating financial outlook, the fulfillment of the 2011-2020 State Armament Program is now in question. The Russian military continues to develop new designs and receive new hardware but has been forced to reduce the quantities purchased of some items and to defer some big ticket items. For example, completion of the Yasen and Borei nuclear submarine construction programs has been pushed back from 2020 to no earlier than 2023 for the Yasen class and 2021 for the Borei class. Whereas Uralvagonzavod has previously announced that it will provide 2300 Armata T-14 main battle tanks to the Russian army by 2020, experts believe that only 200-300 will actually be procured over the next five years, with 2300 remaining a goal for 2030. Completion of the Barguzin railroad-based ICBM system was initially delayed by a over a year and then canceled due to financial problems. Finally, orders of the T-50 fifth generation fighter aircraft were reduced in 2015 from 55 to 12 because of the country’s deteriorating financial situation.

Longer term projects have also faced delays, with procurement of a new long range strategic bomber being postponed in favor of modernization of existing bombers. Plans for building large naval ships have been particularly affected. Construction of a new 14 thousand ton nuclear-powered destroyer, once intended to start in 2016, appears to no longer be under discussion, while plans for large amphibious assault ships, meant to replace the Mistral project that was canceled due to Western sanctions, remain amorphous and may have been quietly put on the back burner.

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The Market is not Enough to end Fossil Fuel use

In recent years, proponents of clean energy have taken heart in the falling prices of solar and wind power, hoping they will drive an energy revolution. But a new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests otherwise: Technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions.

"If we don't adopt new policies, we're not going to be leaving fossil fuels in the ground," says Christopher Knittel, an energy economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management. "We need both a policy like a carbon tax and to put more R&D money into renewables."

While renewable energy has made promising gains in just the last few years -- the cost of solar dropped by about two-thirds from 2009 to 2014 -- new drilling and extraction techniques have made fossil fuels cheaper and markedly increased the amount of oil and gas we can tap into. In the U.S. alone, oil reserves have expanded 59 percent between 2000 and 2014, and natural gas reserves have expanded 94 percent in the same time.

"You often hear, when fossil fuel prices are going up, that if we just leave the market alone we'll wean ourselves off fossil fuels," adds Knittel. "But the message from the data is clear: That's not going to happen any time soon."

This trend -- in which cheaper renewables are outpaced by even cheaper fossil fuels -- portends drastic climate problems, since fossil fuel use has helped produce record warm temperatures worldwide.

The study concludes that burning all available fossil fuels would raise global average temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100; burning oil shale and methane hydrates, two more potential sources of copious fossil fuels, would add another 1.5 to 6.2 degrees Fahrenheit to that.

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Exxon Aware of Global Warming in *1977*

Exxon was aware of climate change, as early as 1977, 11 years before it became a public issue, according to a recent investigation from InsideClimate News. This knowledge did not prevent the company (now ExxonMobil and the world’s largest oil and gas company) from spending decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation—an approach many have likened to the lies spread by the tobacco industry regarding the health risks of smoking. Both industries were conscious that their products wouldn’t stay profitable once the world understood the risks, so much so that they used the same consultants to develop strategies on how to communicate with the public.

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Has China Lost its Taste for Canadian Tar Sands?

Only three years ago, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China’s third-largest national oil company (NOC), launched the largest-ever Chinese overseas takeover bid, offering $15.1 billion to buy Nexen Inc., Canada’s ninth-largest oil company. Together with China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec Group, China’s two largest NOCs, and other state-owned financial institutions, Chinese firms invested around $35 billion in Canada’s energy sector between 2009 and 2013, making Canada the destination of one-third of Chinese overseas energy investment in this period (China Economic Weekly, May 13). But the “Great Leap Forward” of Chinese investment in Canada has proven controversial, as evidenced by the intense debate over CNOOC’s acquisition of Nexen in the fall of 2012, and the recent criticism of the company’s oil leaks in Alberta (BNN, September 2).

With the rapid decline of oil prices in the past year and the heavily discounted energy stocks, Chinese equity holdings in the Canadian energy sector have also come under scrutiny in both countries, especially regarding the value and sustainability of some of the large projects. While Canadians continue to argue about the merits of Chinese capital inflow, Chinese companies are reflecting on the costs of investing in a stable market.

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The Robopocalypse has Come to Alberta's Tar Sands

The Calgary Herald reports on the and the "threat of big layoffs" as Canada’s Oilsands Pave the Way for Driverless Trucks.

The 400-tonne heavy haulers that rumble along the roads of northern Alberta’s oilsands sites are referred to in Fort McMurray as “the biggest trucks in the world,” employing thousands of operators to drive the massive rigs through the mine pits.

Increasingly, however, the giant trucks are capable of getting around without a driver. Indeed, self-driving trucks are already in use at many operations in the province, although they are still operated by drivers while the companies test whether the systems can work in northern Alberta’s variable climate.

That is about to change.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest oil company, confirmed this week it has entered into a five-year agreement with Komatsu Ltd., the Japanese manufacturer of earthmoving and construction machines, to purchase new heavy haulers for its mining operations north of Fort McMurray. All the new trucks will be “autonomous-ready,” meaning they are capable of operating without a driver, Suncor spokesperson Sneh Seetal said.

For Suncor’s roughly 1,000 heavy-haul truck operators, however, the prospect of driverless trucks has raised more immediate fears of significant job losses.

“It’s very concerning to us as to what the future may hold,” said Ken Smith, president of Unifor Local 707A, which represents 3,300 Suncor employees. Smith said Suncor has signed agreements to purchase 175 driverless trucks.

“It’s not fantasy,” Suncor’s chief financial officer Alister Cowan told investors at an RBC Capital Markets conference in New York last week. He said the company is working to replace its fleet of heavy haulers with automated trucks “by the end of the decade.”

“That will take 800 people off our site,” Cowan said of the trucks. “At an average (salary) of $200,000 per person, you can see the savings we’re going to get from an operations perspective.”

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Saudis' War on Frackers Gets REALLY Serious, Won't cut Production Even at $20/barrel

OPEC will not cut oil production even if the price drops to $20 a barrel and it is unfair to expect the cartel to reduce output if non-members do not, Saudi Arabia said.

"Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant," the kingdom's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), an industry weekly.

In unusually detailed comments, Naimi defended a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose lead producer is Saudi Arabia, last month to maintain a production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day.

The decision sent global crude prices tumbling, worsening a price drop that has seen them fall by around 50 percent since June.

Slower demand growth and a stronger dollar have also contributed to the slump.

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Greenland Independence Hopes Dashed by Oil Price Crash?

Less than half a decade ago, Greenlanders were imagining the riches that would follow an oil bonanza as the price of crude approached $150 a barrel. That wealth was supposed to buy the island independence from Denmark.

Today, with oil trading at less than $75, well below levels that would make exploration off the world’s largest island profitable, Greenlanders are casting their votes for a new home-rule government after the previous administration collapsed amid an expenses scandal.

“People in Greenland always ponder how to achieve economic independence from Denmark,” Ulrik Pram Gad, a post doctoral political scientist at the University of Copenhagen, said in an interview. “People are just realizing that things will take longer; nobody knows how to fund the economy without oil and mining.”

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hat tip to Randy.

Crude Oil Dropped Below $80/Barrel, Projected to be Below $70/barrel in 2015

Crude oil just broke $80.

In morning trade on Monday, the price of crude oil fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since mid-2012 as energy prices continue to plummet around the world.

The most recent drop in oil, which has been a bear market since topping out at about $107 during the summer, follows a cut in oil-price expectations from Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie over the weekend.

Currie took his oil-price forecasts for WTI Crude to $75 a barrel in the first quarter of 2015 and to $70 a barrel in the second quarter of next year.

Longer-term, Currie expects WTI prices to stabilize near $80 a barrel, and Currie said that "uncertainty around the required price to slow down US shale production growth is a key risk to our forecast."

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Oil Prices Should Worry Putin More Than Western Sanctions

This week, as falling oil prices have hammered the Russian economy, President Vladimir Putin has warned repeatedly that his country, a nuclear superpower, must not be "blackmailed." He was talking about economic sanctions, but there is a different lesson he should be drawing right now and it has nothing to do with the U.S. or the European Union.

Putin's response to the sanctions, imposed to dissuade him from further aggression in Ukraine, has been to shore up the big state companies and banks most affected. To compensate these businesses for their losses, as sanctions have squeezed them out of international credit markets, the government has raided the state budget, the pension fund and privately held companies. Smaller businesses are being crushed, accelerating a long-term trend under Putin in which Russia's economy has become ever more concentrated in state hands and reliant on natural resources -- especially oil and natural gas.

When times are good, these resources are a source of immense power and wealth. They were the engine that drove Russia's extraordinary 7 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2008, cementing Putin's popularity. An abundance of natural gas, in particular, has also allowed Russia to punish or reward other countries by imposing high or low prices, or by simply cutting them off.

That pipelines game continues unabated. On his way to today's talks on the Ukraine crisis in Milan, Putin attended a military parade in Serbia celebrating Belgrade's liberation from German occupation in World War II. He used the occasion to discuss building the South Stream gas pipeline, which the EU has blocked since the Ukraine crisis developed but is popular in Serbia and other countries that would gain by hosting it. He also warned that the European Union may lose its gas supply this winter.

The flipside to all this energy wealth, however, is that Russia's economy has remained too dependent on energy prices: The sector accounts for about half of government revenues and a quarter of gross domestic product.

Russia's annual budget loses about $2 billion for every dollar fall in the price of oil -- a hit that couldn't come at a worse time. Sanctions, a falling ruble, rising inflation and rapid capital flight are already helping to push the economy toward recession. Although Putin himself will survive -- he has $450 billion in reserves and a population thrilled by his annexation of Crimea -- Russia is not getting any stronger. No wonder Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently said Russia "simply cannot afford" its ambitious $500 billion rearmament program.

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Robopocalypse Good for the Environment? Self Driving Cars Could Reduce Oil Use by 2 to 4%

Excitement around connected and autonomous vehicles has been building for years with consumers interested in the convenience of never having to touch the steering wheel and governments anticipating significant improvements in road safety. It's presumed that these technologies will also have energy efficiency and emissions reductions benefits, but only recently have experts been able to quantify them.

A recent report by the Intelligent Transportation Society of America projects that so-called intelligent transportation systems (ITS) could achieve a 2 to 4 percent reduction in oil consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions each year over the next 10 years as these technologies percolate into the market.

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Hard to Believe: Natural Gas Worse Than Coal, Oil for Global Warming

Both shale gas and conventional natural gas have a larger greenhouse gas footprint than do coal or oil, especially for the primary uses of residential and commercial heating.

Dr. Robert Howarth, a professor of ecology and environmental biology, came to this conclusion after assessing the best available data and analyzing greenhouse gas footprints for both methane (including shale gas and conventional gas) and carbon dioxide over a timescale of 20-years following emissions. The findings are published in Energy Science & Engineering.

"While emissions of carbon dioxide are less from natural gas than from coal and oil, methane emissions are far greater. Methane is such a potent greenhouse gas that these emissions make natural gas a dangerous fuel from the standpoint of global warming over the next several decades," said Dr. Howarth. "Society should wean ourselves from all fossil fuels and not rely on the myth that natural gas is an acceptable bridge fuel to a sustainable future."

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Future Russian Hydrocarbon Production Depends on Western Technolical Help

Even as the decision to stop gas supplies to Ukraine aggravates tensions with the U.S. and Europe, Russia faces a dilemma: it still needs Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM:US), Halliburton Co. (HAL:US) and BP Plc (BP/) to maintain output from Soviet-era oil fields and develop Arctic and shale reserves.

Russia will require Western companies to provide the modern drilling and production gear -- and techniques such as hydraulic fracturing -- that are essential to unlocking its $8.2 trillion worth of barrels still underground.

The cutoff to Ukraine’s gas supply adds another layer of complexity for energy companies navigating a shifting geopolitical landscape in the search for new oil and gas supplies. Decision-makers from some of the West’s biggest oil explorers are gathering in Moscow this week at the World Petroleum Congress to pave the way to new deals.

[...]

Without Western expertise and technology, it’s unlikely Russia could sustain its current production levels, much less increase them, David Pursell, an analyst at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co., said in a phone interview. The country has “zero chance” of exploiting deep-water reserves without Western help, he said.

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I smell sanctions target.

China Deployed Four More oil Rigs to South China Sea

China has sent four more oil rigs into the South China Sea in a sign that Beijing is stepping up its exploration for oil and gas in the tense region, less than two months after it positioned a giant drilling platform in waters claimed by Vietnam.

The announcement comes at a time when many countries in Asia are nervous at Beijing's increasing assertiveness in the potentially energy-rich waters, where sovereignty over countless islands and reefs is in dispute.

Coordinates posted on the website of China's Maritime Safety Administration showed the Nanhai number 2 and 5 rigs had been deployed roughly between China's southern Guangdong province and the Pratas Islands, which are occupied by Taiwan. The Nanhai 4 rig was towed to waters close to the Chinese coast.

Earlier this week, the maritime body gave coordinates for a fourth rig, the Nanhai 9, which would be positioned just outside Vietnam's exclusive economic zone by Friday.

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Vietnam and China's Confrontation Over Oil at Sea is Rigged to Clash

VIETNAM and China share a long history of enmity—and of managing to patch things up when they go wrong. But their latest dispute is not running true to form.

Vietnam was taken aback in early May when China parked an oil rig on its doorstep. The behemoth, which cost $1 billion, lies 17 nautical miles (32 km) from the Paracel islands, which China seized from the American-backed South Vietnamese regime in 1974, and about 150 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast. Vietnam’s leaders say the rig is inside their 200-mile exclusive economic zone as defined by international law. They wanted to settle the dispute quickly through negotiations. But China is said to have rebuffed requests for a summit and talks between lower-ranking officials went nowhere.

Now, the prospect of a quiet resolution looks increasingly remote.

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Vietnam About to Attack Chinese Oil Rig in Disputed Territory?

Vietnam warned China on Tuesday that it would take all necessary measures to defend its interests in the South China Sea if Beijing does not remove a large oil rig from waters claimed by both countries.

The remarks represent an escalation of the dispute in one of Asia's most volatile regions.

China's stationing of the oil rig over the weekend is widely seen as one of its most provocative steps in a gradual campaign of asserting its sovereignty in the South China Sea.

China's assertiveness along with its growing military and economic might is alarming Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries in the region that also claim parts of the oil- and gas-rich waters. The United States, which is undertaking a military and economic "pivot' toward Asia in part to counter Chinese influence, shares the concerns of the smaller nations.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki called China's action "provocative and unhelpful to the maintenance of peace and stability in the region."

A Vietnamese government statement said Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh called Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi and told him the deployment of the $1 billion deep sea rig, which he said was accompanied by military vessels, was illegal and a violation of Vietnamese sovereignty.

Beijing says that the rig, CNOOC 981, is in its territorial waters. China claims nearly all of the South China Sea.

"Vietnam cannot accept and resolutely protests this Chinese action. It demands that China withdraw the rig HD981 and escort vessels from this area," the statement quoted Minh as telling Yang.

Minh said Vietnam wanted to solve all territorial disputes with China peacefully but "will apply all necessary and suitable measures to defend its rights and legitimate interests" in the seas.

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Saudi America: Where Frackers Frack

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Did Fracking Help Frack up Iran's Push for the Bomb?

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry landed in Geneva on Friday to begin negotiations with Iran over its nuclear weapons program. The hope is that the West will reach a deal that eases the economic sanctions imposed on Iran in exchange for some sort of freeze on its enrichment of uranium. Although Kerry was careful to temper expectations as he headed into meetings with his counterparts from Britain, France, and Germany, there is sudden optimism that a deal is in the offing.

Lost in some of the forecasting over what an agreement may eventually entail is the simple fact that none of this would be possible without the U.S. oil boom. Over the last two years, the U.S. has increased its crude production by about 2 million barrels a day. That’s like swallowing Norway, the fourteenth largest oil producer in the world. This new U.S. crude supply has allowed the West to put the squeeze on Iran without disrupting the global market or jacking up the price.

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Confirmed Video: Noel Maurer @ Universidad de los Andes on Petropolitics

Its in spanish though and my spanish sucks.  Love the accent, Noel. 

Noel hangs his hat on the internet here.

The US Oil Production Highest Since the 1980s

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Remember, the US is projected to surpass the Saudis by 2020 now.  Ponder that.