ULA's Plans for a Cislunar Economy

United Launch Alliance (ULA) President and CEO Tory Bruno has provided a new overview of his company’s role in a proposed “Econosphere” in space. Although it will take decades to fully realize its potential, ULA hardware is set to provide the key elements via its CisLunar 1000 roadmap, allowing numerous commercial companies to come together to create a self-sustaining community of around 1000 people in the space between the Earth and the Moon.

The CisLunar 1000 plans revolve creating an in-space economy that would tap into the vast amount of resources that could be harnessed from objects such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) and on the surface of the Moon.

Eventually, the community would become self-sufficient via in situ resource utilization (ISRU), while becoming economically viable via the prospecting of precious materials that are rare on Earth but abundant in space.

“What we understand today is there’s over 17,000 of these (varying range of NEAs) that come in different classes. Best estimates, there are two trillion kilograms of industrial metals residing in that region,” noted Mr. Bruno during his address to students at the University of Colorado Boulder.

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Chinese Manufacturing Grew Weakly

China's factory activity was feeble last month, according to two surveys released Wednesday, indicating that official efforts to reverse a downturn in the world's second-biggest economy are struggling.

The country's massive manufacturing sector, which employs many millions of workers, eked out a tiny expansion in May, according to an official index by the Chinese Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, which came in at 50.1, level with April's reading.

The index is based on a survey of factory purchasing managers and uses a 100-point scale on which numbers above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction.

It's the third straight month the index has shown marginal growth.

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Chinese Economy Slowed in April

China's key economic indicators moderated in April from the previous month, official figures showed on Saturday, raising worries over the strength of a rebound in the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output rose 6.0 percent year-on-year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said, down from a 6.8 percent jump in March. Economists had estimated a 6.5 percent increase, according to Bloomberg News.

"Industrial production was lower than expectations, indicating that the stabilisation momentum for the economy is not as strong as we imagined," Liao Qun, China economist at Citic Bank International in Hong Kong, told AFP.

"There was a strong economic rebound in March, so there was a bit of a correction in April," he said.

The Chinese economy grew at its slowest quarterly pace in seven years in the first three months of the year, expanding 6.7 percent, though the figure met market expectations and raised hopes it had started to improve.

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China's Economic Growth is Dropping to a new Normal

According to today’s official People’s Daily [link here and Bloomberg writeup here], an “authoritative” person who was not identified indicated that China should not support growth by adding leverage. “High leverage will lead to high risk; if not well controlled, it will lead to systemic financial crisis and negative growth”. Considering China’s severe structural problems, this “authoritative” person believes that “China’s economic growth trend in future should be ‘L-shaped’, rather than ‘U-shaped’, not to mention ‘V-shaped’”, which suggests that growth will trend lower. This individual believes China should avoid using strong stimulus to raise investment growth in the short term, as it would create larger problems later. For now, the most important thing, in this person’s view, is to push forward supply-side reforms (i.e., cutting over-capacity, reducing property inventory etc.) and actively but steadily reduce leverage.

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China's Trade Shrank in April

China's trade shrank in April in a sign government stimulus is failing to jolt the world's second-largest economy out of a prolonged slowdown.

Exports contracted by 1.8 percent from a year earlier to $172.7 billion, falling back into negative territory after March's temporary burst of 11.5 percent growth, customs data showed Sunday. Imports plunged 10.9 percent to $127.2 billion after the previous month's 13.8 percent contraction.

Weak demand from consumers in China and worldwide is hampering government efforts to reverse an economic slowdown that dragged growth to a seven-year low of 6.7 percent in the first quarter of the year.

Beijing has eased controls on credit growth and real estate purchases in hopes of stimulating activity but analysts said the impact was likely to be temporary. They said March's unexpectedly strong trade growth also was a fluke due to comparison with weak numbers last year and the resumption of business after the Lunar New Year holiday in February.

Surveys of manufacturers showed factory activity weakened in April and the number of people employed declined.

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China's Manuacturing Grew More Slowly Than Expected

China's manufacturing activity was weaker than expected in April, according to a survey by an industry group.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing says its purchasing managers' index declined to 50.1 in April from the previous month's 50.2 on a 100-point scale. Numbers above 50 indicate activity is expanding.

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Demand for Office Space in San Francisco has Dropped

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Is China's Economy Growing Again?

For now, China’s economy appears to be strengthening again. Real growth edged down to 6.7% year on year in the first quarter, but that figure, subject to fiddling by the authorities, is treated with scepticism by analysts. Instead, they pay more attention to a range of indicators that tell a different story. First, nominal growth—to which corporate earnings are more closely tied—jumped to 7.2% year on year, up from 6% in the final quarter of 2015. Second, the revival of the property sector—the most important part of the economy—gathered pace: the prices of new homes increased by 3.1% in March from a year earlier, the fastest growth since mid-2014. Third, industrial output rose by 6.8% year on year in March, compared with a subdued 5.4% average over the previous two months.

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Or is it still being overly stimulated?

Chinese Economic Slowdown Halted?

China's economic growth slowed in the first quarter to 6.7 percent, largely in line with expectations, but its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.

The report showed that the annualized growth rate for the world's second-largest economy ticked lower from the previous quarter's 6.8 percent.

But carefully targeted stimulus helped to prevent it from slowing even further, analysts said, raising hopes that growth may be stabilizing.

The Chinese economy is undergoing a prolonged slowdown as the country's communist leaders steer it away from a growth model based on export manufacturing and investment toward one focused on more sustainable services and private consumption.

The latest numbers matched most economists' expectations and suggest the economy is on track to meet the official full-year growth target of 6.5 to 7 percent. It was the slowest since the first quarter of 2009, when growth sank to 6.2 percent during the worst of the global crisis.

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Perhaps Misreading the Tea Leaves?

For the last three years, the Berkeley, California-based startup delivered a rotating selection of carb-heavy comfort foods to your door in under 15 minutes. That speed couldn't save it. The company on Tuesday said it's closing up shop. Too much competition and too little cash made it impossible to keep going.

Goodbye, $8 pulled-pork smoked Gouda mac 'n cheese, a recurring customer favorite. I'll miss you.

Brazilian-based iFood reportedly bought SpoonRocket for its delivery tech. The company didn't respond to a request to confirm the acquisition.

SpoonRocket is only the latest on-demand startup to fall on hard times. Earlier this month, Instacart said that it's slashing the pay of people who deliver store-bought groceries to customers. In February, on-demand parking valet Zirx closed its doors, while food delivery startup DoorDash had to lower its own value to raise more funds.

On-demand companies have defined this decade's tech boom. Ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft and delivery apps like Instacart have made patience an overrated virtue. They've also caught the attention of venture capitalists, who have poured more than $9 billion into those three companies alone.

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This is being taken out of context, IMO.  This is the culling of the startups that have not made the grade as much as anything, to be sure, but its timing is interesting.  The VCs are pulling in their horns.  Silicon Valley workers are reportedly rather nervous.  Others are stating they are expecting an economic down turn.  The business cycle might be turning, guys.  No 'boom' goes on forever.

China Determined to Avoid 'Hard Landing' for Economy

China's economy will not suffer a "hard landing", Premier Li Keqiang said Wednesday, stepping up Beijing's charm offensive to reassure investors that the government can manage slowing growth.

"We have long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and this confidence isn't without a foundation," Li told his once-a-year press conference at the end of the National People's Congress (NPC), the Communist-controlled legislature.

Beijing has been looking to send positive messages in recent weeks after expansion in the world's second-largest economy fell to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent in 2015, raising concerns on global markets and sending commodity prices plunging.

Li has reduced the target for this year to a range of 6.5-7 percent, while ratings agency Moody's has lowered its outlook on Chinese bonds.

Authorities have spent hundreds of billions of dollars to defend share prices and the yuan currency in recent months, raising questions over their commitment to market reforms.

Li acknowledged that the government had "controlled some things that should not be controlled, hindering productivity", and said leaders had failed to ensure a fair playing field in the economy.

But he added: "As long as we persist with reform and opening up, China's economy won't have a hard landing."

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China's Jiangshi Problem?

China isn't just contending with falling stocks, a plunging currency and a slowing economy.

It's got vampire trouble, too.

The Chinese economy is pock-marked with companies that can't pay their bills and survive only with government help. Jiangshi, the Chinese call them — "vampire companies." Or zombies.

These ghoulish companies and their debts are hindering the world's second-biggest economy and will likely do so for years. Companies that miss debt payments inflict losses on banks, which then find it hard to lend even to solid companies. By propping up vampire companies, the government can weaken the entire economic ecosystem.

All of which helps explain why the global economy is sputtering and why investors have been gripped by panic.

"It's undoubtedly a very serious problem," says Charles Collyns, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. "The Chinese so far have been very reluctant to let market mechanisms work their way."

On Friday, as finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of 20 major economies began meeting in Shanghai, Zhou Xiaochuan, head of China's central bank, insisted that Chinese authorities closely monitor debt loads. Even so, he said he expects China's economy "to grow at a moderate-to-high pace."

The debt buildup is vast. Chinese corporations (excluding financial companies) had amassed $14.5 trillion in debt by mid-2015, up 4½-fold from eight years earlier, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.

That debt equaled 131 percent of China's gross domestic product, up from 76 percent in mid-2007. That's nearly double U.S. corporate debts' share of U.S. GDP, McKinsey says.

China's total debts — everything owed by corporations, households, government and financial firms — climbed from $6.6 trillion in mid-2007 to $31.9 trillion by mid-2015. It equals 290 percent of China's GDP, McKinsey says — astoundingly high for a still-developing economy.

When banks lend with a frenzy, they tend to make blunders as they shovel money to companies that can't repay. Buried in bad loans, banks tend to curtail the credit that's vital to growth.

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What are China's Long Term Economic Growth Prospects?

China’s diminished growth prospects have figured prominently in recent commentaries about global economic conditions and world stock markets (e.g. Frankel 2016). The general view, with which I concur, is that China will grow in the future at a much slower rate than it has in recent decades. This growth slowdown will reduce international trade and has probably contributed already to the depression in oil prices (Blanchard 2016).

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Chinese Manufacturing Contracts Again, Services Grow but Slower

A survey says Chinese manufacturing ebbed in January to its lowest in more than three years.

It's the latest sign of weakness for the world's No. 2 economy after it posted its slowest annual growth in a quarter century.

An official survey of factory purchasing managers released Monday fell to 49.4 last month.

The latest reading is lower than December's 49.7 on a 100-point scale on which numbers below 50 indicate contraction.


[...]

Meanwhile, activity in China's service industries also eased off. An official purchasing mangers' index for services slipped to 53.5 in January from 54.4 the month before.

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Is China Headed for a Financial Crisis? Or...?

All of the pieces are in place for a financial crisis in China. The currency is weakening and, if left to the market, would likely plunge further. Capital outflows have hit record levels. Reserves are in retreat. A dramatic selloff on Shanghai’s stock market has wiped out all the gains from 2015’s bull run. The leadership, usually lauded for its sagacity, has at times seemed befuddled about what to do.

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Krugman: China Might be in Trouble, but its Likely to NOT Hurt the World Economy Much

So, will China’s problems cause a global crisis? The good news is that the numbers, as I read them, don’t seem big enough. The bad news is that I could be wrong, because global contagion often seems to end up being worse than hard numbers say it should. And the worse news is that if China does deliver a bad shock to the rest of the world, we are remarkably unready to deal with the consequences.

For those just starting to pay attention: It has been obvious for a while that China’s economy is in big trouble. How big is hard to say, because nobody believes official Chinese statistics.

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Chinese Manufacturing Contracts Slower, Services Expand in December

A monthly survey shows that a contraction in Chinese manufacturing eased slightly in December, while service industries continued to expand.

The numbers were a potential sign of recovery among exporters in the world's No. 2 economy, while reflecting the government's efforts to shift the economy's focus from manufacturing and exports to services and domestic consumption.

The purchasing managers' index for manufacturers, compiled by the Chinese Federation for Logistics and Purchasing, came in at 49.7 in December, up from 49.6 in November — which was its weakest point in three years. A similar index for service industries continued an expansion, coming in at 54.4 for December, up from 53.6 in November.

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More Signs of Chinese Economic Woes in November

Chinese imports shrank by 8.7% and exports shrank by 6.8%.  This is actually better than the 16% of the month before.  However, oil imports are up 8.7%.

China also had high capital outflows in November.

Chinese Manufacturing Slows Again, Services Rise

Chinese manufacturing was at its weakest in more than three years in November despite stimulus measures to bolster the world's No. 2 economy while service industries improved, according to an official survey released Tuesday.

The manufacturing index based on a survey of factory purchasing managers slipped for the fourth straight month, falling to 49.6 in November from 49.8 the previous month.

The index is based on a 100-point scale, with the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction.

The latest data highlight the two-speed nature of China's economy as officials try to shift the economy's focus from manufacturing to services in a transition that's proving to be rocky. Growth in the latest quarter fell to a six-year low of 6.9 percent, slightly down from 7 percent in each of the two preceding quarters after repeated interest rate cuts and other stimulus measures

Services, which have helped offset the weakness in manufacturing, showed some improvement. The official measure covering China's service industries rose to 53.6 from 53.1.

A sub-index covering new manufacturing orders, seen as an indicator of overall demand, fell to 49.8 from 50.3.

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China's Central Bank cut Interest Rates to Small Business From 5.5% to 3.25%

China's central bank has cut interest rates charged by lenders that finance small businesses in a new move to shore up lackluster economic growth.

The People's Bank of China on Thursday cut the raid charged for a one-week loan by smaller lenders from 5.5 percent to 3.25 percent. The rate for an overnight loan was cut from 4.5 percent to 2.75 percent.

Beijing has cut interest rates six times since last November as economic growth slowed. But those cuts applied to large banks that lend mostly to state industry, not entrepreneurs who generate most of China's new jobs and wealth.

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