Thursday, April 28, 2016

Is China's Economy Growing Again?

For now, China’s economy appears to be strengthening again. Real growth edged down to 6.7% year on year in the first quarter, but that figure, subject to fiddling by the authorities, is treated with scepticism by analysts. Instead, they pay more attention to a range of indicators that tell a different story. First, nominal growth—to which corporate earnings are more closely tied—jumped to 7.2% year on year, up from 6% in the final quarter of 2015. Second, the revival of the property sector—the most important part of the economy—gathered pace: the prices of new homes increased by 3.1% in March from a year earlier, the fastest growth since mid-2014. Third, industrial output rose by 6.8% year on year in March, compared with a subdued 5.4% average over the previous two months.


Or is it still being overly stimulated?

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