Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #74

A deal was reached between the US and Russia for a ceasefire in Syria.  It would mean the Syrian rebels, Assadites, Russians and coalition members would not attack one another.  It would exclude Nusra and IS/Daesh.  The ceasefire is supposed to start on Saturday.

The Russians have vowed to make sure Damascus observes the ceasefire.  Assad claims to have accepted the ceasefire.  I'll believe it when I see it.

The rebels are pretty downbeat about the ceasefire actually taking place.  

This is understandable.  The Kurdish faction, the one called terrorists by the Turks and a division in the Assadite army by the Assadites, has been in bitter fighting against the Syrian rebels in Aleppo.  

Furthermore, some circles are stating there is a loophole.  Anyone with contacts with Nusra or any other banned group is still considered fair game.  One of the sources stated most rebel factions have some sort of connection, even if just for local truces to get civilians out, and the Russians may use this as an excuse to continue their bombardment and effectively do the same 'ceasefire' as in Ukraine.

The US has a 'Plan B' if the ceasefire fails.

More than 270,000 Syrians have died in the war to date.

The Saudis are indicating they want to arm the rebels with MANPADS.  This could get messy.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #70 Mini Update: Saudis Deploy Fighters to Turkish Airbase

The Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force has deployed fighter jets to Incirlik air base in Turkey, a day after the NATO anti-Islamic State coalition meeting in Brussels.

Brigadier General Ahmed Al-Assiri, consultant to Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, confirmed to Saudi-owned news station Al-Arabiya the arrival of Saudi Air Force jets at the Turkish airbase.

"Our jet fighters and crews have been deployed to the Incirlik Airbase," he said. "We have deployed them as part of the international coalition led by Washington," he added.

Assiri also confirmed the kingdom's readiness to enter ground operations in Syria but to this point no Saudi Special Operations Forces have been deployed to Turkey.

"The Saudi deployment is only limited to air force personnel at this point," he said.

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Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #69

It appears everything is about to spiral out of control. I'd LOVE to be wrong about that, but so many things are coming together in the worse possible way. To be sure, for the civilians on the ground, this has been out of control for a long time and its dumbass commentators like me that use euphemisms that down play the tragedy and devastation. Even so, it appears things are going to get worse. If this stays on course, this will be the 30 Years War for the Middle East.

The Turks have stated they and the Saudis may invade Syria now. For that matter, the Kurdish faction supported by the Russians is now being shelled by the Turks in the airbase they just captured.  

The Saudis are stating Assad will not stay in power.  dun dundun!

The Assadite Syrian Army is moving in on Raqqa, the IS/Daesh strong hold.

Assad has vowed to take back the entire country and will not stop until he does.

Russia has dispatched a new corvette armed with the long range cruise missiles to the Med to support Assad.

The Russians are stating a ceasefire will most likely fail now: this is happening as the Assadite army continues to make gains.  Despite the major powers agreeing there would be ceasefire on friday, the Russians continued their bombing and the Assadites continued fighting.  Furthermore, the Russians have stated cooperation with the US is vital in Syria.  This is classically Russian: talk, speak empty words, get the West to try to compromise and then do whatever they want.

Secretary Kerry continued to state the Russians had to stop targeting the rebels and needed to focus on Daesh/IS. This will not happen, Mr Secretary. I'm sorry.

The French have also called on Russia to stop targeting civilians.

The West conducted 20 air strikes on friday against Daesh/IS forces.  Keep in mind the 'weak' Russians have kept a temp of at least 70 per day just in Syria, not Syria and Iraq like the West.

Are Saudi Arabia, UAE Using Chinese CH-4 Drones in Yemen Because the US Could not Approve a Sale Fast Enough?

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have both acquired Chinese-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to meet urgent operational requirements arising from their military intervention in Yemen, it was revealed during a panel discussion held by the Atlantic Council think tank on 8 December.

"The drones the UAE is using in Yemen are Chinese because they failed to get US approval," US Marine Corps General (retired) James L Jones said. Gen Jones served as National Security Advisor in 2009-2010 and is now affiliated with the Atlantic Council.

Nawaf Obaid, a former advisor to the Saudi ambassadors to the United Kingdom and the United States, immediately added "that is true, us too", indicating Saudi Arabia has also acquired Chinese UAVs because it could not obtain US ones.

"[The UAVs are] an example of things we could have done, but we didn't do, and now people who are more agile have been able to send drones to the UAE," Jones said. "We have a serious problem in the way and the speed with which we come to the aid of our friends and allies with equipment."

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Jeddah Tower Rendering

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Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #56

It appears Russia is using an airbase in Iran.

Russia has hit another 212 targets in the last 24 hours. 

Putin has stated there's no chance of improving ties with Turkey. 

With his classic ambiguity, Putin declared he's unsure whether Russia needs a permanent base in Syria.  Just like there were no Russian troops in Ukraine.  Oh, wait.

He has also made it clear no outside force should decide whether Assad stays or goes.

Putin also claimed to be backing the Free Syrian Army against IS.  The FSA claims this is false.

The Saudis put together a coalition.  Its purpose is a little unclear.  Officially, it is to fight terrorism.  Pakistan has called it an Islamic military alliance and confirmed it is a participant.  Putin doesn't see the alliance as hostile.

Lavrov and Kerry apparently continue to consult over Syria.  There have been rumors Kerry may be conceding on Assad staying in power.

Saudi Arabia Forms 34 Nation Coalition to Fight Terrorism.

Saudi Arabia on Tuesday announced the formation of a 34-state Islamic military coalition to combat terrorism, according to a joint statement published on state news agency SPA.

"The countries here mentioned have decided on the formation of a military alliance led by Saudi Arabia to fight terrorism, with a joint operations center based in Riyadh to coordinate and support military operations," the statement said.

A long list of Arab countries such as Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, together with Islamic countries Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan and Gulf Arab and African states were mentioned.

The announcement cited "a duty to protect the Islamic nation from the evils of all terrorist groups and organizations whatever their sect and name which wreak death and corruption on earth and aim to terrorize the innocent."

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Could this become a military alliance?

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #17

Russia hit 72 targets in the last 24 hours.

There are accusations the Russians or their Syrian allies are using thermobaric weapons against the rebels.  These were used to terrible effect against the Ukrainians.

There are reports of a hospital being hit by the Russian air strikes.  The Russians deny this happened.  First responders have been targeted before and there is documentary video of that act.

Russia has stated Syria must be stabilized first and then offer a political transition.  Some are sayign Russia will do their usual faux elections to keep Assad in power.

Russia has also stated Iran and other powers ought to be involved in any talks over Syria's future.

The Saudis are getting louder about Russian intervention in Syria and they are not pleased.  They state Russia's intervention will have terrible consequences and Assad must be removed.  There are the consequences of having ever fun fundies after you, but I have to wonder if the Saudis might be threatening to increase oil production more to crash the Russian economy.

Saudis buy Four Freedom Class LCS Properly Upgraded to Frigates (inclusive of VLS)

Four Lockheed Martin Freedom-class ship variants are set to form the backbone of the Royal Saudi Navy’s Eastern Fleet as part of a $11.25 billion foreign military sales case presented to Congress on Monday.

[...]

Lockheed as presented several sizes of the Freedom for foreign sales and is yet unclear what the final tonnage of the Saudi variant will be.

The quartet — as described in the DSCA notification — will emphasize traditional anti-air warfare and will be built around two eight-cell Lockheed Martin Mk 41 vertical launch system (VLS) and an Airbus TRS-4D active electronically scanned array (AESA) air search radar.

The list also included 532 Raytheon RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) which can be loaded four to a Mk 41 cell. With 16 cells per hull, the Saudi Freedoms will be able to potentially field 64 anti-air missiles per-ship.

A December Naval Sea Systems Command contract award to Lockheed Martin included about $93 million for Mk 41 systems for Saudi Arabia, giving early hints to the direction of their SNEP II ship buys.

The ships will also field the 1980s era Boeing RGM-84 Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles (ASM), anti-submarine warfare (ASW) sonar suites and torpedoes as well as an OTO Melara 76 mm main deck gun.

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Ok, US Navy, the Saudis just paid for the engineering work to get the LCS' to have VLS.  Put it in the SSC frigate, damnit.

Saudi Arabia Buying 2 Lockheed Built Freedom Class LCS Derived Frigates for $1 Billion

Saudi Arabia is in advanced discussions with the U.S. government about buying two frigates based on a coastal warship that Lockheed Martin Corp is building for the U.S. Navy, and could reach agreement by the end of the year, according to sources familiar with the talks.

The frigate sale, valued at well over $1 billion, will be the cornerstone of a long-delayed multi billion dollar modernization of the Royal Saudi Navy’s Gulf-patroling eastern fleet of aging U.S. warships and would include smaller patrol boats. It underscores the strong business and military ties between the two countries, despite tensions over the U.S.-led Iran nuclear deal.

Paperwork for the Saudi deal could be finalized by year's end, the sources told Reuters this week. The larger modernization effort will encompass training, infrastructure and anti-submarine warfare equipment, and could include orders from other countries, the sources said.

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Amusingly, McCain et al want the minehunting UUV replaced on the LCS classes.

MERS is *FAR* From Gone: 19 Dead in Saudi Arabia This Week

Deaths from the MERS coronavirus have surged in Saudi Arabia ahead of the hajj pilgrimage, with 19 fatalities recorded in a week, according to health ministry statistics.

A total of 502 people have died in the kingdom since the virus first appeared in 2012, according to updated figures posted on the ministry's website, including 19, all Saudis, since last Thursday.

The number of MERS infections has also surged to 1,171 cases, the website said.

A surge in infections forced health authorities to shut the emergency ward at a main hospital in Riyadh last week, after at least 46 people, including medical staff, contracted the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.

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BOOM! Time to Replace the M-1 Tank, Guys!

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Wait! What?! Saudi King Wants to buy French Mistrals...FOR EGYPT?!

Saudi Arabia keen to buy completed Mistral carriers for Egypt

French daily Le Monde reported that Saudi Arabia is keen to buy the two Mistral carriers ordered by Russia and transfer them to Egypt.

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Saudis Want LCS With Aegis, VLS

The long-sought-after deal to upgrade and replace Saudi Arabia's Eastern Fleet has taken a major step forward, sources said, with the January delivery of a letter of request (LoR) to the US detailing Saudi wishes.

Rear Adm. Jim Shannon, head of the US Navy International Program Office, reportedly obtained the LoR during a visit to Saudi Arabia. The letter marks a major step forward after years of talks and negotiations with the Saudis, who have also strongly considered French proposals to replace their fleet.

The French hold the preponderance of contracts in support of the Saudi's western, or Red Sea, fleet. France and the US are considered the primary contenders for the Eastern Fleet contract, said to be worth as much as $16 billion or higher.

Several sources said the Saudi LoR did not list specific ship designs, but rather gave general guidelines. Among the highlights are:

• Four 3,500-ton frigate-like warships, armed with vertical launch systems (VLS), capable of anti-air warfare and speeds of 35 knots

• 12 1,150-ton corvette-like warships

• 24 or so smaller patrol craft

The deal would include MH-60R helicopters to operate from the frigates, along with support and training.

One condition is the shipbuilder would be the prime contractor.

The US Navy is reportedly working to define details of the LoR, including what air radar the Saudis want to fulfill the anti-air requirement. Sources said that while no specific radar is listed in the LoR, the only system that fits the requirement is the SPY-1F lightweight Aegis system from Lockheed Martin.

SPY-1F is fitted only to Norway's Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates. All other Aegis warships — US cruisers and destroyers, foreign ships including those from Spain, Korea, Japan and Australia — carry the heavier SPY-1D antenna. While there is a high degree of commonality between the two versions, the 1F features smaller antennas and less power, resulting in shorter range.

Lockheed Martin and Austal USA have offered versions of their littoral combat ships fitted with VLS and phased-array radars, including the SPY-1F, both for export and most recently for the US Navy's Small Surface Combatant (SSC) competition conducted in 2014. In the end, the US Navy chose to forego Aegis and VLS on its SSCs, now designated as frigates.

Other than the LCS/SSC/frigate designs, there are no other US projects that would fit the 3,500-ton parameters of the Saudi frigate.

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If I were the SecDef, I'd have the Saudis pay for development costs of the LCS with the real firepower of a frigate and then just add the minor improvements, relatively speaking, the US Navy needs.  Use those to replace the LCS with the minor upgrades that currently planned after the first 20 LCS.  Then they actually will be FF or really FFGs and worthy successors to the Oliver Hazard Perry frigates.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is Back

Infectious disease watchers are again wondering what is going on in Saudi Arabia. Since the beginning of February the Saudis have reported 52 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome—better known as MERS; 40 have come to light in the past week or so alone. Since the disease first hit the world’s radar in September 2012 only two months have racked up more cases than this one has. They were April and May 2014, when Saudi Arabia had rampant MERS outbreaks in several hospitals.

An expert delegation from the United Nation’s human and animal health agencies began a three-day mission to the Arabian Peninsula’s geographically largest country Wednesday, trying to get to the bottom of why MERS cases are soaring.

This is the time of year in which the number of MERS cases has climbed in the past, although not enough time has elapsed to make clear whether that pattern will continue. In the past two springs large hospital outbreaks in Saudi Arabia have certainly created the appearance of a high season for MERS transmission, which some scientists believe exists and is linked to the birth and weaning of young camels. The animals are known to be susceptible to the virus and can transmit it to people. Like young children who infect the adults around them with colds and flu, juvenile camels are thought to drive the spread of this virus among camel herds and out into the human population. Then someone becomes sick enough to require hospitalization and the infection spreads.

But even if there is a seasonal component to MERS, a spring surge has never before started this early in the year. By comparison, in the past two Februaries fewer than 10 cases were reported. "Of course we don't have 10, 20 years’ history to be able to predict any seasonal patterns,’’ says Peter Ben Embarek, a food safety expert who is the World Health Organization’s point person for MERS. “But just based on the last couple of years, the couple of seasons we've come through, it's not a good start."

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Saudis' War on Frackers Gets REALLY Serious, Won't cut Production Even at $20/barrel

OPEC will not cut oil production even if the price drops to $20 a barrel and it is unfair to expect the cartel to reduce output if non-members do not, Saudi Arabia said.

"Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant," the kingdom's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), an industry weekly.

In unusually detailed comments, Naimi defended a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose lead producer is Saudi Arabia, last month to maintain a production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day.

The decision sent global crude prices tumbling, worsening a price drop that has seen them fall by around 50 percent since June.

Slower demand growth and a stronger dollar have also contributed to the slump.

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A Freshwater Oasis Existed in the Nefud Desert at the Pleistocene/Holocene Boundary

Epipalaeolithic occupation and palaeoenvironments of the southern Nefud desert, Saudi Arabia, during the Terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene

Authors:

Hilbert et al

Abstract:

The transition from the Terminal Pleistocene to the Early Holocene is poorly represented in the geological and archaeological records of northern Arabia, and the climatic conditions that prevailed in the region during that period are unclear. Here, we present a new record from the site of Al-Rabyah, in the Jubbah basin (southern Nefud desert, Saudi Arabia), where a sequence of fossiliferous lacustrine and palustrine deposits containing an archaeological assemblage is preserved. Sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental investigations, both at Al-Rabyah and elsewhere in the Jubbah area, indicate phases of humid conditions, during which shallow lakes developed in the basin, separated by drier periods. At Al-Rabyah, the end of a Terminal Pleistocene phase of lake expansion has been dated to ∼12.2 ka using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), with a mid-Holocene humid phase dated to after ∼6.6 ka. Palaeoecological reconstructions based primarily on non-marine molluscs and ostracods from the younger lacustrine deposits indicate a relatively shallow body of freshwater surrounded by moist, well-vegetated environments. A lithic assemblage characterized by bladelets and geometric microliths was excavated from sediments attributed to a drier climatic phase dated to ∼10.1 ka. The lithic artefact types exhibit similarities to Epipalaeolithic industries of the Levant, and their occurrence well beyond the ‘core region’ of such assemblages (and at a significantly later date) has important implications for understanding interactions between Levantine and Arabian populations during the Terminal Pleistocene–Early Holocene. We suggest that the presence of foraging populations in the southern Nefud during periods of drier climate is due to the prolonged presence of a freshwater oasis in the Jubbah Basin during the Terminal Pleistocene–Early Holocene, which enabled them to subsist in the region when neighbouring areas of northern Arabia and the Levant were increasingly hostile.

Saudi Arabia Announces 20% Military Budget Increase

Saudi Arabia has increased expenditure on defence and security by 20.5% to SAR302.9 billion (USD80.8 billion for 2014), the largest nominal annual increase in the budget since 2007.

According to data released by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) on 12 June, spending on defence and security will increase to 35.4% of total national spending; the highest level since 2001.

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Saudi Arabia's Response to MERS Inhibited by Institutional Problems

When Saudi Arabia announced last week it had found 113 more cases of the deadly Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), it didn't just force a rethink of the threat the virus poses, it exposed institutional failings.

Saudi health sources and international virologists said poor communication and a lack of accountability in government departments, inadequate state oversight and a failure to learn from past mistakes have all hindered Saudi Arabia's battle against the SARS-like virus.

They say it is too soon to tell if reforms introduced by a new acting health minister can overcome what they see as underlying problems.

Some top Saudi health officials say they accept that delays in reporting MERS cases were caused by poor communication between hospitals, laboratories and government departments, but they stress things have improved significantly since the appointment of the new minister in late April.

The health ministry "has put in place measures to ensure best practices of data gathering, reporting (and) transparency are strictly observed", it says, and "to ensure that from now on, case information will be accurate, reliable and timely".

Saudi Arabia has been host to the vast majority of cases of MERS - a viral infection which can cause coughing, fever and pneumonia - since it was first found in humans two years ago.

International concerns over Saudi Arabia's handling of the outbreak grew last week when it said it had under-reported cases by a fifth and revised the case numbers to 688 from 575.

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Saudi Arabia's MERS Death Toll Really 282, not 190

Saudi Arabia's death toll from the MERS coronavirus has surged to 282, the health ministry said Tuesday, following recalculations in the world's worst hit country.

"A comprehensive revision" going back to 2012 has resulted in revising up the death toll, which had stood at 190 people, while the number of infected cases rose from 575 to 688 people, the ministry said in a statement.

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