Canadian Fighter Procurement Debacle Continues

Canada’s Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan has just announced that his ministry will reach out to fighter manufacturers this summer to determine the best aircraft to meet the country’s needs.

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Pakistan in Talks to buy Turkish T-129 Attack Helicopters

Newly-appointed Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik and Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif met Friday in Islamabad to discuss bilateral defense cooperation.

"One of the most important issues between [the two countries] is a deal for T129 attack helicopters," Isik said at a joint press conference held after the meeting.

The deal for the sale of the T129s -- a multi-role attack helicopter co-developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries -- will "further enhance our bilateral cooperation in the defense industry," Isik asserted.

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US Army Starting a OH-58 Kiowa Replacement

The US Army has confirmed its pursuit of a light reconnaissance helicopter that will assume the role left vacant by the retirement of the Bell OH-58D Kiowa Warrior.

Army military deputy for acquisition, technology and logistics Lt Gen Michael Williamson suggested the army might move quicker on its Future Vertical Lift-Light (FVL-Light) programme because it might be more achievable in the near term.

“I think what you’ll find is there’s still a requirement for us to have a light reconnaissance helicopter, so as we looked at the dollars that are available and the timing to get to a platform, we saw the light helicopter probably gave us the most in terms of schedule,” Williamson said at a conference on US fiscal year 2017 defence programmes in Washington DC on 10 March.

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The Race for the US Air Force T-X Trainer Contract

If 2015 was the year of the bomber, the US Air Force’s requirement for a next-generation fighter trainer will be one of the hottest games in town in 2016.

With four – maybe five – industry teams poised to pounce on a request for proposals due out in the fourth quarter, the multi-billion dollar opportunity to replace the venerable T-38 Talon will reveal clean-sheet aircraft from Northrop Grumman and Boeing/Saab, and also maybe from Lockheed Martin; despite the company’s ties to the T-50-based Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) bid.

The USAF’s massaging of T-X performance needs has already seen Textron rule out offering its Scorpion, and question marks hang over the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 (offered as T-100) and BAE Systems Hawk.

It’s impossible to predict how the competition will shake out, but the need for 350 advanced trainers to prepare pilots to fly the Lockheed F-22 and F-35 will surely throw up surprises.

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Finland Kicks off HX Program to Replace 61 F/A-18C/D Fighters

Finland has notified five manufacturers of its intention to seek bids for its HX fighter-replacement programme, which will see it replace its 61-strong Boeing F/A-18C/D Hornet fleet.

On 16 December, the Finnish ministry of defence notified the governments of France, Sweden, the UK and the USA that it will be seeking information on seven aircraft types from five different manufacturers.

Requests for information (RFI) will be issued by March 2016, Finland says, which will include the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, Saab Gripen, Boeing F-18 and F-15, and Lockheed Martin F-35 and F-16.

Replies to the RFI are to be submitted to Helsinki by the end of October 2016, with the contest to be launched in “spring 2018”, followed by a selection in 2021.

HX was introduced in October after a working group recommended the F-18s be replaced with new multi-role fighters, concluding extending the life of the Hornet fleet would not be cost-effective.

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Australia now Evaluating 3 bids for Collins Class Submarine Replacement

Now that all three competitors have issued final proposals in Australia's AU$ 50 billion (US $36.44 billion) Future Submarine program, an expert advisory panel will begin its evaluations and issue findings next year to guide the government's selection.

Up to 12 large conventional submarines will be acquired under Project Sea 1000. The Australian government selected France’s DCNS, TKMS of Germany and the government of Japan to participate in a competitive evaluation process (CEP).

“Since the CEP began in February, all three participants have worked closely with [the Department of] Defence and they should be congratulated for the hard work and significant investment they have made to reach this point,” Australian Defence Minister Sen. Marise Payne said in a statement.

“Submarines are Defence’s most complex, sensitive and expensive capability, so it is important that evaluation process is fair and robust.”

Each of the three bidders is required to submit three strategies for construction of the Future Submarine, from full completion in their home shipyards; through a hybrid model where initial boats are built in the home yard and the remainder in Australia; and a complete build in an Australian shipyard.

DCNS is proposing a conventionally powered derivative of its Barracuda nuclear attack submarine, known as the Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A. The company announced that its proposal, which includes a government-to-government agreement between the Australian Department of Defence and France’s Direction Générale de Armament, was submitted on Nov. 27.

TKMS is bidding a submarine which uses its existing HDW Type 216 boat as a reference design, but will be significantly scaled up to meet Australia’s requirements.

During the Pacific 2015 Maritime Exposition held in Sydney in October, TKMS Australia Chairman John White announced that the design would be named "Endeavour," after the barque of Capt. James Cook who landed on Australia’s east coast in 1770.

The Japanese government, in partnership with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Shipbuilding, is dealing directly with the Australian Defence Department’s procurement organization, the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group. The Japanese are proposing a new submarine design based upon the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force’s current Soryu-class boat.

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US Marines Choose BAE & SAIC for Amphibious Combat Vehicle Prototypes

The Marine Corps chose BAE and SAIC from a field of five competitors to build competing prototypes for the long-awaited Amphibious Combat Vehicle. BAE, a dominant player in tracked armored vehicles, had teamed with Italian armsmaker Iveco to offer a variant of the Italians’ wheeled SuperAV. SAIC, best known as a consulting firm, offered a variant of the Singaporean Terrex. “BAE’s contract is for $103.8 million, while SAIC’s is for $121.5 million,” the Marines announced at 5 pm.

The awards are a major step forward for the service. The Marines had struggled for years to replace their Amphibious Assault Vehicle — aging, lumbering, and terribly vulnerable to roadside bombs — whose ability to carry Marines from ship to shore and inland is central to the service’s identity. After early doubts about the ACV candidates’ capabilities, the Marines are now confident the winner will be as fast on the water as the old AAV and vastly better on land, with mobility similar to the Army’s eight-wheel-drive Stryker and — perhaps most importantly — protection equal to an MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected) vehicle.

Each of the two winners will build 16 vehicles to be delivered from January through April 2017. (The current contract says 13 but Marine officials pledge to execute an option for three more once the funding is available). That unusually large number of prototypes will speed up testing and development of tactics, with multiple activities running simultaneously and allowing any broken-down vehicles to be quickly replaced, ACV program manager John Garner told reporters this afternoon. By the time the program enters its formal operational evaluation (OPEVAL) in late 2017 (early fiscal year 2018), said Garner, “the Marines will have already learned how they’re going to operate these vehicles.”

After that comes a downselect to a single winner, who’ll build up to 204 test vehicles at an average procurement unit cost (APUC) of no more than $6.5 million each. That and other costs to date will constitute the $1.2 billion “ACV 1.1″ program, which enters service ca. 2021. But immediately on 1.1’s heels comes “ACV 1.2,” which will produce up to 490 vehicles of multiple variants. (All ACV 1.1s are regular troop carriers; ACV 1.2s will also include command vehicles and recovery vehicles, essentially armored tow-trucks). The service wants the transition from 1.1 to 1.2 to be as smooth as possible, with as little new development and testing as possible, which means the winner of 1.1 will have a lock on 1.2 unless they drop the ball.

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In a Sign of Epic Management Failure, US Air Force Considering Buying 72 More 4th Generation Fighters

The U.S. Air Force may solicit bids for 72 new Boeing F-15s, Lockheed Martin F-16s or even Boeing F/A-18E/Fs as budget issues put planned production rates for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter out of reach, according to senior service and industry officials at the Defense IQ International Fighter Conference here.

F-15s and F-16s are now expected to serve until 2045, when an all-new aircraft will be ready, and plans to modernize F-16s with active electronically scanned array radars and other improvements are being revived.

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Canada may Strip Iroquois-class Destroyers of Vertical Launch Systems to Place in new Ships

In an article for allNovaScotia.com he writes that the RCN is interested in keeping the Mk 41 missile launch systems from its Iroquois-class destroyers for possible use on the surface combatant.

“All MK 41Vertical Launch Missile systems…will be retained and preserved pending determination whether or not they will be required for the Canadian Surface Combatant,” stated a document, signed by Vice Admiral Mark Norman, commander of the RCN, and obtained by Gordon through the Access to Information law.

The vertical launch system consists of 29 missile silos, or bays, fitted to the bow of the ships and flush with the deck, Gordon wrote.

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Turkey Cancels $3.4 Bilion Purchase of Chinese Surface to air Missile Systems

Turkey has cancelled its USD4 billion T-Loramids long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system tender, for which China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) was downselected in 2013 as the preferred provider.

The Turkish decision to cancel the long-stalled T-Loramids tender was first reported on 15 November by Reuters news agency, which quoted an official from the Turkish prime minister's office. Sources from the Turkish Defence Industries Undersecretariat (SSM) confirmed the report to IHS Jane's .

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US Marine Corps Wants Procurement of Spares for F-35B Kept/Sped up

The Marine Corps aviation community is keeping busy preparing to send its first F-35B Joint Strike Fighters to Japan in January 2017, ensuring the training and logistics pipelines are ready for global deployment of the new plane, the deputy commandant for aviation told USNI News.

The first F-35B squadron, Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121, reached initial operational capability (IOC) in July and could, in an emergency, deploy overseas today.

“if a contingency arose, and I’ve got an IOC squadron, I could put six or more F-35Bs on the [USS] Wasp and sail into harm’s way and do the job and basically do what our nation needs to do with a fifth-generation aircraft from a seabase, the first one ever,” Lt. Gen. Jon Davis told USNI News in an interview.

VMFA-121 is the lone F-35B squadron for now, though the Marines intend to transition Marine Attack Squadron (VMA) 211, an AV-8B squadron, this fiscal year and Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 122, an F-18 Hornet squadron, in 2018.

As the F-35B fleet builds out, Davis said the Marines have to ensure sufficient readiness for all the squadrons. He said he needs to “make sure as we build up 211 we don’t degrade the capability of 121 from the maintenance perspective, make sure we keep our training solid. Right now we’re in good shape, we have a good plan to build out 211.”

“Keeping the procurement ramp solid is imperative to do that,” he said, and the procurement of spare parts may be the most important and most under-emphasized.

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Fix Foreign Military Sales Program or Allies Will buy Chinese Weapons Instead

The head of Air Force acquisition, just back from the Dubai Air Show, said the United States must act fast to make it easier and quicker for allies to buy US weapons through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system.

If we don’t, Bill LaPLante said at an event put by on the Lexington Institute, a Washington thinktank, then we have to accept that our allies will buy Chinese weapons, even if they are copies of US gear and don’t work nearly as well as US weapons.

“US stuff is in incredibly high demand. Overseas people are desperate, they are desperate for our stuff,” Bill LaPLante told an event put on the Lexington Institute, a Washington thinktank. “We need to do something about it. It’s urgent.”

LaPlante made his case bluntly and with force: “Guess who’s over there selling stuff? I don’t know. China???” Their reconnaissance drone looked just like the Reaper. Their new fighter looks just like the F-35. Are they are as good, he asked rhetorically? Probably not. But LaPlante pointed to the intricate US system of approving Foreign Military Sales. It requires inputs and reviews by the State, Defense and Commerce departments. It requires congressional notification and review. It takes time, often years.

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GAO to USMC: Rushing Armored Vehicle (ACV) Development can be Costly Later

The Marine Corps' plan to fast track the development of its next-generation amphibious vehicle could mean some design and mechanical problems might not emerge until after the first systems hit the fleet, according to a government watchdog agency.

As the Marine Corps prepares this month to select two competitors to produce prototypes of its Amphibious Combat Vehicle 1.1, the Government Accountability Office commended the service for following best practices tied to major acquisition programs. But the GAO is also warning Marine officials to keep an eye on two key points.

Developing the first round of ACVs before the preliminary design review is complete “poses risk,” the Oct. 28 report states. That could result in costly modifications down the road.

The service's plan to combine preliminary and critical design reviews into one event — just 90 days after development begins — leaves too little time to address issues, the report states. GAO officials cited the canceled Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle program as an example of what the Marine Corps should not repeat. The EFV's critical design review was conducted at a similar stage, but prototype testing continued for three years — long after the findings could inform the design. After 15 years, the $3.7 billion program was deemed too expensive to maintain.

“If the ACV 1.1 does not demonstrate the expected amphibious capabilities, then more development than currently anticipated may be required for ACV 1.2 to achieve ship-to-shore amphibious capability and greater effort may be needed to retrofit ACV 1.1 vehicles to achieve the same capabilities,” the report said.

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US Navy Starting SSN(X) Attack Sub Program a Decade "Early"

Though the Virginia-class attack submarine program (SSN-774) is still going strong, delivering boats ahead of schedule and below original cost estimates, the Navy needs to start planning the next generation of attack submarines soon, according to the program executive office for submarines.

PEO Subs executive director George Drakeley said last week at the annual Naval Submarine League symposium that an analysis of alternatives for the next-generation sub, or SSN(X), would take place in 2024.

To prepare for that milestone, PEO Subs has created a future capabilities group to begin studying what the operating environment might look like in the 2050 timeframe, what technologies submarines would require to be successful in that environment, and what enablers the research and development community can start working on now to set up the future program for success, he said.

“We’re already putting together a team to look at, what does the future submarine after Virginia need to look like? This is looking forward just as the Ohio Replacement Program is looking forward, but it’s important that we do this now,” Drakeley said.
“We need to identify the technologies that we’re going to need out in the future years in the attack submarine business. … This is going to be a submarine that will have to be better integrated with [unmanned underwater vehicles] and other sensors and other capabilities that we maybe haven’t even thought of yet.”

In 2013 the Navy expanded the Virginia class from a 30-boat program to 48, which now puts the last Virginia-class sub at delivering in 2034, he said. The SSN(X) analysis of alternatives will take place in 2024, the authorization for the lead ship in the new class will happen in 2034, and the new class will reach initial operational capability in 2044, according to current PEO Subs plans.

Starting the SSN(X) discussion nearly a decade ahead of the AoA will help ensure that mature technologies and design tools are ready when the program starts, which reduces risk and cost; will help the Navy understand the impact of external factors and other programs on the SSN(X) design and mission; and build affordability into the program, Drakeley said during his presentation.

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There are two possibilities here.  1.  The Navy is doing something really stupid.  They are going to waste money starting the program long, long before it will go to production.  A DECADE! of budget line item that's not producing anything and another TWO decades before IOC for the first SSN(X).

The other possibility is the navy thinks they will get the greenlight to start the AOA and program much earlier, probably in the next administration, and have their ducks in a row so they can.  In that light, this looks like a good idea. 

In the light of starting a program *30* years before IOC of the first sub is dumber than dumb.  

A retired admiral is criticizing the navy and stating the navy needs to accelerate submarine innovation.

Stealth Saga #11

The South Koreans have been working on 3 of the 4 technologies the US banned export of already.  The AESA radar is the only technology the Koreans have not yet developed on their own.  The South Koreans have been trying to figure out how to acquire the AESA radar.  Saab and several others are already offering their solutions.

The Russians may not sell the Indians the S-400 SAM missiles unless India 'clarifies' its intentions with the T-50/PAK-FA derivative they had been working on with Russia.  India has been developing very cold feet recently over the project, worried about performance, quality control and the lack of real cooperative development with the Russians despit paying for a very large portion of the bill.  This could really backfire for the Russians.

The Canadian projected withdrawal the F-35 is going to shake up the fighter market.  Turkey is hoping to add the SOM-J cruise missile to the F-35 in software version 4.2

Bloomberg states the Long Range Strike Bomber contract will be announced tomorrow at 4 pm eastern time (after the markets close).  I'm surprised they are not waiting until friday.  Experts are split on who has won the contract.  What questions SHOULD be asked about the B-3/LRS-B and its contract?  Everyone in the aerospace industry is looking for clues as to which team won.

Finland Starting Fighter Procurement to Replace F-18Cs

Finland's defence forces received authorisation from the country's defence minister, Jussi Niinistö, to launch a procurement programme to replace the country's Boeing F/A-18C Hornet fleet on 20 October.

The programme - known as HX - comes after the delivery of a report by a working group in June on possible options for the country's fighter fleet.

The report recommended that the country required a multirole fighter to replace the F/A-18 Hornet fleet, with the country's air defence to also be augmented by ground-based air defence systems.

According to the Finnish Ministry of Defence (MoD), the current Hornet fleet is expected to reach the end of its service life by the end of the 2020s due to overall structural fatigue, the weakening of relative capabilities, and the availability of the aircraft's systems, spare parts, and software. It is expected that the current Hornet fleet will be phased out from 2025 onwards.

According to the working group's report, requests for information are currently being drafted for delivery in February 2016. Requests for quotes are to be issued in 2018, before a tender is issued in February 2019. Contracts are planned to be signed in 2021, with an initial operating capability being reached in early 2025. Full operational capability is to be reached around 2030.

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DCNS Offering Australia Conventional Version of Barracuda Nuclear Submarine

DCNS filed a draft proposal at the end of September and aims to submit a final offer at the end of November in Australia’s tender for a new class of attack submarines, reported to be worth Aus $50 billion (US $36.3 billion), a spokesperson for the French naval shipbuilder said.

Technology transfer will be part of the French offer of the concept vessel Shortfin Barracuda, a diesel-electric version of the Barracuda nuclear-powered attack submarine being built for the French Navy.

“The transfer of technology will be complete, to allow Australia to meet its objective of sovereignty and independence,” the DCNS spokesperson said.

Australia’s Sea 1000 project to replace the Collins submarines has attracted competing bids from DCNS, a Japanese offer from Mitsubishi Heavy Industry and Kawasaki Shipbuilding, and German specialist ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. The tender is for six to 12 units.

A selection is expected by the middle of 2016, the spokesperson said.

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Indian Air Force Needs Another 108 Rafale, may Consider Alternate Aircraft

Indian Air Force on Saturday said it would need at least six squadrons comprising 108 Rafale or similar jets to shore up its capabilities as it hoped that the contract for 36 French fighter aircraft would be inked by year-end.

Noting that two squadron of 18 Rafale jets each might not be enough, Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha said his force would like to have at least six squadrons of the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA).

He hinted that even though the Rafale is the front- runner, India may go in for another aircraft with similar capabilities "if the deal is good".

"Definitely, we would like to have MMRCA variety of aircraft. At least about six squadrons to my mind. Let us see, there may be some other alternatives as well," Raha said addressing a press conference ahead of the Air Force Day on October 8.

He was replying to questions about the possibility of India Air Force wanting more than the 36 Rafales under a government to government deal announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his trip to France in April.

Asked if the additional four squadrons of aircraft will be Rafales or if there is a possibility of other players getting into play, Raha said, "I may wish to have Rafale. But there are equally good aircraft. So if the deal is good and the government decides we need to have six of similar squadron."

"There are alternatives. I cannot say I only want Rafale. I want capability of Rafale type aircraft. So the government will have a look at it and based on urgency and the type of contract is signed with Dassault Aviation, further decisions may be taken by the government. I cannot predict," he said.

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Zumwalt Destroyer Procurement Gets Savaged

Though a well worn phrase, we really can learn more from our failures than our successes. That only works if you are willing to accept your failures, identify what led to them, and strive to both understand not only the failure itself, but the steps that led you there.

By almost any measure, SC-21/DD-21/DD-X/DDG-1000 has been a failure. One of the best things we did was to halt the program at three ships. The better route might have been to just cancel it altogether, but I think good people can disagree on if there is value in keeping what we have as a technology demonstrator that will deploy now and then so we can harvest the good ideas for future programs. An expensive lesson, but a turnip that does have some blood.

The rump-DDG-1000 class is also a perfect icon of the Age of Transformationalism. As with all the programs of that era, we will continue throwing seabags full of money at the problem to try make the best it.

On the surface side of the house, there are the three Hulls of Transformationalism, LCS; LPD-17, and our bespotted DDG-1000. As was foretold, with enough money the Tiffany LPD-17 class would be made functional. That gilded line that leads to acceptable adequacy has yet to be made with LCS/FF, but as of now we are fully vested in making the best of that too – and eventually we will. All will be content as long as no one looks at the opportunity cost and what might have been done if we did not fully embrace the Cataclysm of the Age of Transformationalism.

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US Navy's UCLASS' Time in Acquisition Hell

The long-running debate over the mission of the US Navy's carrier-launched unmanned surveillance and strike aircraft might have set the "UCLASS" competition back few years, but the maritime force's acquisition chief says getting the requirements right from the beginning is vital.

“This programme is in acquisition hell right now. It’s been inside the building for three years, just trying to get out and see the light of day,” Navy assistant secretary Sean Stackley said at a Navy League forum in Washington 9 September. “We’ll debate on it some more this fall (September to November) with OSD to determine whether or not we have the right programme, not just for the navy, but the nation.”

With many conflicting views and opinions about the role of the aircraft, Stackley says once the requirements question is settled, the programme will have a much better chance of delivering the carrier-based UAV the navy needs to maintain its technological edge.

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