Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #74

A deal was reached between the US and Russia for a ceasefire in Syria.  It would mean the Syrian rebels, Assadites, Russians and coalition members would not attack one another.  It would exclude Nusra and IS/Daesh.  The ceasefire is supposed to start on Saturday.

The Russians have vowed to make sure Damascus observes the ceasefire.  Assad claims to have accepted the ceasefire.  I'll believe it when I see it.

The rebels are pretty downbeat about the ceasefire actually taking place.  

This is understandable.  The Kurdish faction, the one called terrorists by the Turks and a division in the Assadite army by the Assadites, has been in bitter fighting against the Syrian rebels in Aleppo.  

Furthermore, some circles are stating there is a loophole.  Anyone with contacts with Nusra or any other banned group is still considered fair game.  One of the sources stated most rebel factions have some sort of connection, even if just for local truces to get civilians out, and the Russians may use this as an excuse to continue their bombardment and effectively do the same 'ceasefire' as in Ukraine.

The US has a 'Plan B' if the ceasefire fails.

More than 270,000 Syrians have died in the war to date.

The Saudis are indicating they want to arm the rebels with MANPADS.  This could get messy.

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