Ukraine: Patterns of Dying or Flaring Embers

The ceasefire has been ordered to be extended for another three days. 

The negotiations continue, but nothing has come to fruition.

Ukraine signed the association agreement with the EU.  So did Moldova and Georgia. 

The Russians have threatened the Ukrainians if the EU pact harms the Russian economy.

A national guard base in Donetsk was taken by the pro Russians.

In Kramatorsk, the LGM used a reported *8* tanks to attack the Ukrainian army.  Casualties reported were very light considering.  Were they really tanks?  Or AFVs of some other stripe?

Another tank was used at Artemivsk against the Ukrainian army.

Another attack took place near Slavyansk.

Near Lugansk, another 25 armoured fighting vehciles crossed into Ukraine.

In videos online, there's an increasing number of American Hummers and trucks the Ukrainian army is using. 

The Russians are staging a very large number of AFVs in the Voronezh Oblast.

Ukraine: Patterns of Unraveling (again)

Whatever Kiev says, there is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

There have been several clashes on the border in Lugansk Oblast.  

The fighting in Donetsk has been particularly bad.  

The LGM attacked multiple checkpoints to try to break out again in Slavyansk. 

The pro russians attacked the Kramatorsk airport too.

The OSCE team in Donetsk has been released.

I am concerned about a confrontation between police and the Right Sector on the road to Kirovograd.

Poroshenko outlined his plan for peace and the Union of People's Republics stated they wanted to negotiate more.

In theory, tomorrow Poroshenko will be signing the deal with the European Union.  I wonder how Yanukovich feels about that?

Ukraine: Patterns Within Patterns

The fighting continues in Ukraine.

Battles are intensifying around Lugansk.  It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are moving very large forces there.  I've seen videos of company sized tank units in the area and more.  I suspect there will be a big push in the next week for the area.

There are clashes in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.  The shelling is brutal at times, but not long lasting. This appears to be being done by the Ukrainians.

The LGM on the other hand are doing the same back to Krasnyi Liman.  Most recently the hospital there was shelled.  It appears to be mortar fire.

The Russians are turning their equipment supplies to the LGM and levees to from a drip to a dribble.  Reports are of 3 more GRAD MLRS crossed today, that were seen.  Probably more. 

The Russian army's second build up by the Ukrainian border has been confirmed by NATO and the White House.  More and more this looks like we had a troop rotation.

Poroshenko was on the phone with Putin to discuss and try to reach an agreement on the cease fire.  Later Lavrov accused Poroshenko of merely playing for time.  The irony is Pushilin (the DNR's rep) was the first to reject the truce.  

Digging through the videos online and sources of information online, there is a LOT of blatantly stunningly false information.  This is especially true from the Russian sources - Russia Today, etc.  Stunningly, they often splice in video from Iraq from 4+ years ago and state its happening in Ukraine, esp when it comes to the American troops or Mercs, in Ukraine.  The dubs of American Congress critters are also amusing: you can find almost all the originals online.

Ukraine: The Pattern of Nearing the Bonfire

The Ukrainian 'Anti Terrorist Operation' continues in the East.  

Fighting has moved into the city of Slavyansk, apparently on Artema Street.  Fighting is also reported at Semenivka and Kramatorsk.

Weirdness continues with the Little Green Men.  

In Lysychansk, in the Lugansk Oblast, they have declared their own, independent People's Republic, declaring independence from the Lugansk People's Republic.

The self declared mayor of Slavyansk, Ponomariov, has disappeared.  There are reports he has been arrested by the LGM.

The LGM have kidnapped the Gorlovka mayor.

The location of the video of the border guards vs the LGM has been ceded to the LGM (Marynovka).  The LGM claim they they have control of over 200 km of the border. 

Additionally, the Ukrainian government has been negotiating with Russia over the gas bills.  This has stalled.  The Russians claim they are offering the same deal as under Yanukovich, or at least the same discount.  The Ukrainians claim there are a lot of hooks which are unacceptable.

Ukraine: Situation Dire

Ukraine edges closer and closer to a civil war.  Except that's not an accurate description, really.  There is another model which fits better.  And, no, its not exactly a foreign invasion either.

Time after time, foreign nationals have been identified as the ones doing the provocations.  These are folks sent in from Russia to 'help their brothers in Ukraine.'  These foreign nationals, these alien forces, the Little Green Men, have been the ones causing most of the problems.  Yes, truth be told, there are locals, the levees we've heard of on the intercepted calls.  However, the vast majority of this is on the hands of those LGM.

With the phone intercepts, the equipment identification and in several cases, IDing the actual LGM through their social media presences, its pretty obvious they are supported and directed by Russia.  Yet, they are not Russian flagged troops by any means.

It "can't" really be called a civil war then: since this is less about Ukrainian vs Ukrainian.  Has there been a situation in recent memory where a nation has supported insurgents in another nation to further their foreign policy goals, even to potentially annex that territory?

Why, yes, actually, and I am surprised no one else has drawn this parallel:the Kargil War.  it seems Russia was actually paying attention to that mess and how to improve upon the process with some Soviet twists.

Odessa is worse off.  The pro Russians mobbed a police station where around 70 of their number were being held.  Clashes in Odessa have been rising and the turn of events there does not look good for Ukraine.

The LGM have trotted out lots of guns in Donetsk and seized Kostyantynivka.

New provocations have started in Kherson and Kharkov.

Donetsk is planning a referendum on May 11th to secede from Ukraine.  This is to be followed by a referendum on May 18 to join Russia.  The Ukrainian presidential election is supposed to be the 25th.

The status of the counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army is in doubt.  There's little news other than more clashes outside of Slavyansk and battles in Kramatorsk.