Russia Tested its Already Existing Iskander IRBM...and it Broke the INF Limits "accidentally"

During a planned live-firing exercise by Russia, one of its Iskander-M ballistic missile flew beyond 600km and landed outside its designated target area. The missile is said to have been fired from Kapustin Yar for the Makat firing range in Kazakhstan. However, the missile ended up in the Bayganinsky district. The SS-26 Stone or “Iskander” is a road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of up to 500 km. Using a common transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) and support vehicles, the system can also fire the 9M728 (R-500, SSC-7) and 9M729 cruise missiles. Russia began development of the SS-26 in the late 1980s to replace the OTR-23 “Oka” SRBM.

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source in russian.

Russia Claims Will Develop Two New INF Violating Missiles by 2021 (hint: already were)

Russia will race to develop two new land-based missile launch systems before 2021 to respond to Washington’s planned exit from a landmark nuclear arms control pact, it said on Tuesday.

President Vladimir Putin said at the weekend that Russia had suspended the Cold War-era Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which bans both nations from stationing short- and intermediate-range land-based missiles in Europe.

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Russia will formally exit the INF treaty in six months.  Some naively believe Russia might opt for negotiation instead of new weapons.  Russia's reply above ought to make their position very, very clear: do as I say, not as I do!

Let's be blunt.

Russia cannot magically develop new weapons in 2 years.  They must have been working on them for years.  By saying the above, the Russians are admitting they were violating the INF blatantly and not just with the single system the US claimed they were breaking the treaty with.

Oh!  The Russians are looking for a few useful idiots!

The Russians appear to have over 64 of the INF violating, ground launched 9M729 cruise missiles.

Russians Unveil 9M729 GLCM in Attempt to Save INF Treaty

Russia showed foreign military attaches on Wednesday a new cruise missile that the United States says breaches a landmark arms control pact, billing it as an exercise in transparency it hoped would persuade Washington to stay in the treaty.

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more info.

Even more.

The US demanded Russia destroy the missiles and their launchers.  Russia refused.  NATO backed the US.  The US will quit the treaty.

How the US Says Russia Violated the INF Treaty

The word is that U.S. administration has finally identified the cruise missile that it suspects to violate the INF Treaty. In his remarks at the Wilson Center, Christopher Ford of the National Security Council said that the missile is known in Russia as 9M729. This was the first time the Russian name of the missile, designated in the United States as SSC-8, was announced officially. But, of course, someone leaked it to Jeffrey Lewis back in 2015, so it's not really news. I had my doubts about the 9M729 theory, but if that's what the U.S. administration builds its claim on, I am not in a position to argue.

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The INF Treaty is About to Collapse

The situation with the INF Treaty is getting worse pretty rapidly. U.S. Congress is moving to include what is known as "INF Treaty Preservation Act" in the National Defense Authorization bill. Judging by the language of the bill, its authors believe that the best way to preserve the INF Treaty is to join Russia in killing it (and to kill the New START extension for good measure). The current version of the bill would establish a U.S. program to develop an INF-range ground-launched cruise missile development program. Other proposals have been circulating as well - the Senate version of the INF Preservation Act mentions active defenses, counterforce capabilities, or things like "facilitating the transfer to allied countries of missile systems with [INF] ranges" (I am told that the plan is that the missiles would come from Israel). And it's not just Congress -- the Pentagon has already developed a set of five or so options that would address the INF violation (Israeli missiles is reportedly one of them).

In short, the process that would lead to destruction of the INF Treaty has been set in motion and at this point fewer and fewer people mention the option of resolving the issue through a discussion with Russia. In fact, a lot of people do not particularly care about the details of the alleged violation or its real military significance. For them, it is very convenient to start with a "blatant treaty violation" and move on to their favorite cause, be that missile defense, dismantlement of New START, or something else.

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Russia is Frustrating the US With INF Treaty Violation

Russia continues to rattle the United States with its alleged breach of a 1987 bilateral agreement aimed at eliminating medium-range ground-based missiles, according to a senior State Department official.

“We have made it very clear to our Russian colleagues that our patience is not indefinite,” said Frank Rose, the State Department’s top diplomat for arms control, compliance and verification. “We will work closely with our allies to ensure that Russia does not gain any benefit from its violation.”

Translation — this is bad. But unless Moscow actually deploys the prohibited missile, don’t expect a dramatic U.S. response anytime soon.

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Russia Opposed to US-China on Global Warming Pact

Russia set itself at odds with a drive by China and the United States for rapid ratification of a global agreement to slow climate change when a senior official said on Wednesday that Moscow first wanted a clear set of rules.

Negotiating a detailed rule book for the 2015 Paris Agreement for shifting the world economy from fossil fuels could take years, in the worst case, delegates said at May 16-26 U.N. talks in Bonn on implementing the pact.

Top greenhouse gas emitters China and the United States say they plan to join the Paris Agreement this year and almost all other nations say they will ratify as rapidly as possible -before the rules are in place.

But Russia, the number three greenhouse gas emitter, questioned the plan in a rare sign of disagreement about implementation.

The Agreement can still enter into force without Russia, because it requires at least 55 nations representing 55 percent of global greenhouse gases to gain legal force. Russia, the number three emitter, only accounts for 7.5 percent.

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Legal Issues Remain for Asteroid Mining

Those efforts are seemingly emboldened by the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (CSLCA), legislation passed by Congress and signed into law last November. A section of the law grants companies the rights to resources they extract from asteroids, which clears up, at least at the level of domestic law, the question of whether companies could own material they extract from an asteroid. Yet, even with that law in effect, there are still unresolved issues, both at the federal and the international level, for prospective asteroid miners.

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Nitro Zeus: Did the United States Plan to Start a Cyber War With Iran if Diplomacy Failed?

The United States had a plan for an extensive cyber attack on Iran in case diplomatic attempts to curtail its nuclear program failed, The New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing a forthcoming documentary and military and intelligence officials.

Code-named Nitro Zeus, the plan was aimed at crippling Iran's air defenses, communications systems and key parts of its electrical power grid, but was put on hold after a nuclear deal was reached last year, the Times said.

The plan developed by the Pentagon was intended to assure President Barack Obama that he had alternatives to war if Iran moved against the United States or its regional allies, and at one point involved thousands of U.S. military and intelligence personnel, the report said. It also called for spending tens of millions of dollars and putting electronic devices in Iran's computer networks, the Times said.

U.S. intelligence agencies at the same time developed a separate plan for a covert cyberattack to disable Iran's Fordo nuclear enrichment site inside a mountain near the city of Qom, the report said.

The existence of Nitro Zeus was revealed during reporting on a documentary film called "Zero Days" to be shown on Wednesday at the Berlin Film Festival, the Times said. The film describes rising tensions between Iran and the West in the years before the nuclear agreement, the discovery of the Stuxnet cyberattack on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, and debates in the Pentagon over the use of such tactics, the paper reported.

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Europeans: American Space Mining Law Violates Space Treaty if Implemented Wrong

European specialists in space law on Dec. 4 said the recently enacted U.S. Commercial Space Act may contravene international treaties and will inevitably stir up a hornet’s nest of opposition.

The law confers on U.S. citizens the right to engage in commercial exploitation of outer space minerals, a right that might be viewed as violating the United Nations Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which says in part: “Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.”

The United States is a signatory to this treaty.

On Nov. 25, U.S. President Barack Obama signed into law the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, whose shorthand title is the Commercial Space Act of 2015.

The law includes a chapter on “space resource commercial exploitation and utilization” whose language is clear enough. The goal, the law says, is to “facilitate commercial exploitation for, and commercial recovery of, space resources by United States citizens.” The act defines space resources as including water and minerals.

The law was applauded by commercial space advocates in the United States as removing an obstacle to capital investment in companies planning to mine resources on the moon or elsewhere.

None of these companies has raised anywhere near the financing needed to start commercial mining, but the law’s passage excited enormous discussion on social media networks, including allegations that it was a “criminal” appropriation by the United States of the global commons.

“Is the Commercial Space Act a violation of the Outer Space Treaty’s prohibition of national appropriation?” asked Alexander Soucek, head of the legal services department at the 22-nation European Space Agency. “It is very controversial; I can say that. There are lots of opinions on this.”

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The Paris Climate Agreement

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Good for a Giggle: Moscow Accuses US of Violating INF Treaty

Russia believes that the United States violated their bilateral deal on intermediate-range nuclear forces when it installed Mk 41 vertical launching systems in Eastern Europe, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Wednesday.

The 1987 INF Treaty banned nuclear and conventional ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 300 to 3,400 miles.

When installed on warships, Mk 41s can be used for launching both SM-3 interceptor missiles and medium to range Tomahawk cruise missiles. Several Mk 41s are currently stationed in Romania and will be later redeployed to Poland.

This came in response to continued US accusations that Moscow is not fulfilling its INF Treaty obligations. Washington alleges that Moscow tested a ground-launched cruise missile in violation of the INF Treaty.

The Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated on Wednesday that Moscow considered such accusations to be baseless and accused Washington of using these claims to justify its "response" measures.

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Coal Industry Fighting to be Included in Climate Talks

The global coal industry is trumpeting "cleaner coal" technology to fight bubbling competition from renewable energy, but the high costs of greener plants are proving a major obstacle in selling them to power-hungry countries such as India.

The challenges are highlighted by the experience of Japan - despite a concerted push by Tokyo to take a lead in exporting the technology, only 7 percent of the power stations built or planned since 2010 with funds from Tokyo's export credit agency were of the most energy-efficient type, according to data from a group of NGOs.

With world leaders due to meet in Paris from Monday to try to agree a deal to tackle climate change, the World Coal Association (WCA) is touting the use of very hot steam under extreme pressure to raise a power plant's efficiency, which it says can cut the greenhouse gases emitted from burning coal by up to 30 percent.

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An Update on the INF Treaty Violation

On December 1, 2015 the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee held a hearing on "Russian Arms Control Cheating: Violation of the INF Treaty and the Administration's Responses One Year Later". Rose Gottemoeller and Brian McKeon were invited to testify, just as they were a year ago. There was nothing particularly new there, at least not in the open session, but a few details are worth mentioning.

[...]

As I understand what Rose Gottemoeller said, before that time the missile was tested in treaty-compliant manner, either from a fixed launcher or from sea (or maybe from an aircraft). Which definitely makes sense if this is essentially the same missile. (In all likelihood, this is the missile that was used against Syria in October - Kalibr-NK.) Then, in 2011, Russia probably tested it from a mobile launcher, which immediately made it non-compliant with the treaty.

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Obama Signed Asteroid Mining Law, may Lead to Treaty Violation

U.S. President Barack Obama signed legislation on Wednesday providing a framework for space companies to mine ore from asteroids and other bodies, but legal critics are worried the measure could lead to violations of international law.

The Space Resource Exploration and Utilization Act gives any American who successfully extracts natural resources from outer space the property rights over the haul.

But it has long been agreed between countries that outer space is not to become another Wild West, some legal scholars argue, and the new law risks privatizing a realm that is meant to belong to all of humanity.

"My view is that natural resources [in space] should not be allowed to be appropriated by anyone — states, private companies, or international organizations," said Ram Jakhu, a professor at McGill University's institute of air and space law.

He said the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed by the U.S. and other countries, including Canada, makes it clear that the surfaces and contents of asteroids and other celestial bodies are protected from commercial harvesting.

The treaty's Article 2 reads, "Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means."

That view isn't unanimous among legal scholars, however. Some say small asteroids don't qualify as "celestial bodies," while others say it's not "appropriating" an asteroid to extract minerals from it. And the new law does contain a clause making it clear the U.S. isn't asserting sovereignty or exclusive rights over any celestial body.

Ricky Lee, an Australian lawyer who wrote his doctoral thesis on the legalities of space mining, said companies are already making routine, for-profit use of limited space resources by launching satellites into low orbits, and especially into high-up geostationary orbits, of which there are a maximum number of slots available.

"So the idea that commercial use of space resources is prohibited by the Outer Space Treaty... is quite simply absurd," he said in an email.

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Russia Delays New Start Required Demo of RS-26 Nuclear Ballistic Missile to 2016

The demonstration of Russia’s newest RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile to US inspectors has been delayed until next year, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry told TASS on Wednesday.

"By decision of the Defense Ministry, the demonstration of our new intercontinental ballistic missile RS-26 to a group of US inspectors has been rescheduled from November 2015 to 2016 and the new time schedule of the demonstration has not yet been determined," the source said.

"The US side has been notified of this decision and has taken note of it," the source said.

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Russian Missile Test Violated INF Treaty

A top U.S. Defense Department official said Russia violated a landmark nuclear treaty with the recent test of a new surface-to-air missile.

Russia on Sept. 2 tested a new cruise missile that the Pentagon is calling the SSC-X-8, which may be based on the SS-N-30A Kalibr, according to an article on the conservative website The Washington Free Beacon. The latter is a variant of the SS-N-27B (shown above).

The 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty signed by the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union bans nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 300 miles to 3,400 miles.

While Russia’s new missile reportedly didn’t fly beyond 300 miles, the test nevertheless violated the terms of the INF, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work said on Tuesday during a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

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Chinese President Denies Hacking US for Commercial Purposes, Offers Cybersecurity Accord

That was the key message on cybersecurity from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who spoke in an interview with the Wall Street Journal ahead of a visit to the US, where he is expected to discuss the issue with President Barack Obama.

"The Chinese government does not engage in theft of commercial secrets in any form, nor does it encourage or support Chinese companies to engage in such practices in any way," Xi said. Using computers to steal secrets or attack governments is illegal and "should be punished according to law and relevant international conventions," he said.

His claims of Chinese innocence are at odds with the view of US officials who have become increasingly frustrated over online attacks they say originate from China. US national security advisor Susan Rice has said Obama will be direct with Xi in what is expected to be an intense discussion between the two leaders on the issue. Obama and Xi might try to negotiate an online equivalent of an arms control accord, a New York Times report suggested, but US officials remain unconvinced that the deal would explicitly prohibit an attack on critical infrastructure.

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Robopocalypse Report #7

Welcome to the latest Robopocalypse Report.  This is where I highlight some of the changes coming due to the new robotics revolution we are going through.  There is a strong emphasis on the technology of what is happening, but links will be present for the implications when they are present too.

The explosive ordnance disposal community in the US is now really worried about flying IEDs.  Their concern comes from the idea someone could strap a bomb on a quadcopter or other commercial drone and...yikes!  

The US Navy nuclear attack submarine successfully deployed an unmanned underwater vehicle, drone sub, and recovered it while on deployment.

The Russians took their Platform-M (gotta love Russian project names) to Crimea and showed off at one of their 'military festivals.'  It seems the controller is from video game console.  There are other bits to criticize as well.  Their timing was pretty bad.

The reason being Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and others have called on United Nations to ban autonomous weapons.  So long as one member of the Security Council wants those sort of weapons, the UN is going to do bupkiss. 

Back to more peaceful uses of drones, Amazon proposed the altitude of 200 ft to 400 ft be set aside for drone flights as a way of regulating with a buffer of another 100 feet so manned helicopters and aircraft would be required to fly at 500 feet and higher.

Back down to earth Matt Burgess posits how autonomous commercial vehicles will have a far greater impact on our lives than self driving cars.

General Electric, in an interview by John Lizzi, discusses its vision of 'service robotics' and how bots will act like our apprentices.

MIT - those organic traitors! - have also greatly improved object recognition for machine vision.

A Review of International Treaty Obligations vs the ASTEROIDS Act

Given their desire to extract resources from asteroids, US space industry stakeholders seek assurances that whatever is extracted can be processed and sold like terrestrial resources. In order to encourage investment, these businesses need to know that outer space resources can be protected by property rights.

On July 10, 2014, Congressmen Bill Posey (R-FL) and Derek Kilmer (D-WA) introduced the ASTEROIDS Act.1 The Act seeks to facilitate the commercial exploration and utilization of asteroid resources to meet national needs and to promote the right of US commercial entities to explore and utilize resources from asteroids, in accordance with existing international obligations of the US.

On September 9, the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Subcommittee on Space, held a hearing titled, “Exploring Our Solar System: The ASTEROIDS Act as a Key Step.” The hearing addressed a host of topics, many of which were not germane to the Act. Fortunately, Joanne Gabrynowicz, Professor Emerita and former editor-in-chief of the University of Mississippi Journal of Space Law, offered testimony on the legal difficulties associated with crafting legislation for novel space activities. This article briefly explores some of these difficulties with a focus on international obligations that should be considered in an attempt to draft a law creating property rights over outer space resources.

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