Russia has Declared its Hypersonic Avangard Nuclear Weapon Operational

Russian state news media and credible western news outlets such as the BBC World News are reporting that Russia has operationally deployed its new, “highly maneuverable”, ICBM-launched Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle to an active military base somewhere in the Ural Mountains of western Russia.

The reports are significant since the Russian claims of maneuverability for the Avangard HGV may make interception of the missile system impossible with known anti-missile defense systems and countermeasures.

The Avangard is boosted into flight using an ICBM launch platform such as Russia’s SS-19 Stiletto (also known as the UR-100UTTkh). The Avangard HGV separates from its ICBM boost platform after reaching an apogee or maximum altitude of approximately 100 km. After separation from the launch ICBM platform the unpowered Avangard reenters the atmosphere at hypersonic speed. This flight profile is no different than existing ICBM deployed hypersonic weapons used by the U.S. and other nations. What is claimed to set the Avangard apart from existing reentry vehicles is its maneuverability. Russia claims the Avangard is as fast as an ICBM warhead on reentry but also as maneuverable as a low-speed cruise missile. It is this claim of maneuverability at hypersonic speeds that is alleged to make Avangard “impossible” to intercept by known anti-missile defense systems.

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US New START Nuclear Inspectors Have Examined the Imminently IOCed Avangard Hypersonic Nuclear Weapon

Russia says that a U.S. team has had a chance to inspect one of its new silo-launched Avangard hypersonic missiles under the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START. This comes as there are mounting questions about the future of that bilateral agreement, which could sunset in 2021 unless American and Russian officials agree to an extension.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the inspection had occurred in a statement on Nov. 26, 2019. American personnel had first arrived for the visit two days earlier. Previous reports said that Russia had placed the first two operational examples of Avangard in silos sometime earlier in the month and that the weapon system would reach its initial operational capability in December.

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What Happened on the White Sea near Nyonoksa, Russia?

Something strange happened near Nyonoksa, Russia. There was an explosion. There was a radiation spike. At least five Russian nuclear personnel were killed. Information is dribbling out. The Russians are slowly fessing up to what happened. However, details are very, very elusive and there is an enormous amount of speculation.

Nyonoksa, Russia is in the Archangelsk Oblast (district) near Severodinsk and Archangels. It is located off the east shore of the White Sea and in the general vicinity of a lot of Russian naval bases. The accident or incident didn't happen at the town itself though, but rather at a site nearby. If the Russians are to be believed, it was out on the White Sea itself.

On August 8th, an accident took place. The accident was supposedly due to rocket fuel catching fire and at least five people have so far have died. The reports initially just stated there was an accident with a rocket. This happens rockets having far, far more energy stored in them than even a 747 and when precautions are not sufficiently taken, people die. It even happens here in the US: ask the Challenger astronauts or Virgin Galactic employees. It would have been a tragedy rather than a mystery.  This is not a strictly Russian thing.

But then...

Radiation counters spiked in in Nyonoksa, Russia and elsewhere. The radiation levels spiked to 20x the norm. And then returned to normal within days. Even possibly a day. The Norwegians reported no spike in Norway until several days later, but it was a spike of radioactive iodine. Previous radioative iodine spikes have been attributed to medical manufacturing in Russia in the past.

Therein lies the mystery.

Had this been a case where a nuclear weapon or whatnot had had a subcritical explosion, the fallout would have contaminated the area and the radiation would be persistent and VERY detectable with the cloud it would have generated in Norway with far more isotopes than merely the glowy-version of iodine. Yet it did not. Whatever caused the spike did so with a gas or something very transiently and easily dispersible.

The Moscow initially denied there was no radiation spike. They originally stated there was an explosion with a liquid fuel rocket engine. Now they are saying the stating the 7 killed were working on iso tope power sources' for new weapon systems. Yet, they still deny the radiation release: the city of Nyonoksa stated there was a radiation spike though and there was a run on iodine in town (iodine can protect the thyroid from radiation damage).  The Russians later announced and then cancelled an evacuation of Nyonoksa.

This has increased the speculation as to what happened. The Warzone (and others) have suggested there was an explosion related to the Burevestnik nuclear powered cruise missile the Russians have been working on: NATO calls the weapon 'Skyfall' which I find to be way more awesome, btw. This uses an exposed nuclear reactor to heat air into providing thrust. This was explored by the US in Project Pluto back in the 1960s/1970s. A premature or accidental test run would fit the profile for the radiation spike, but would not be a match for the description of an explosion: the engine exhaust can be radioactive even if no radioactive material from the engine is lost. The workers being present when the engine started and unexpectedly would also fit why they died and what they were doing.

However...

If the workers were killed in an accidental test, it would be a massive case of negligence. Worse than that, actually. Heads ought to be rolling so much that Putin could field a bowling team using the severed heads as bowling balls.

Burevestnik has been an air launched weapon. Russia has been testing it over in Siberia. Archangelsk's area is more naval. The location seems rather strange for the Burevestnik then unless they were working on it to integrate with naval assets. Possible, but strangely premature. The weapon is still in very early testing and the flight regime is still being expanded.   Adding the capability to, say, the Tu-144 Backfires, would be really dumb at this point. Likewise attempting to do the same with a sub or surface ship is also stupid: with money tight in the Russian defense budget, getting the missile working ought to come first and the Russians are far from stupid in that regard. This should have greatly decreased the possibility of the Burevestnik being the source of the radiation.  

But!

The engineers killed were related to the nuclear industry in Russia.  the Russians have copped to the explosion being related to their nuclear weapons development.  The US gov has stated they think the explosion was related to the Burevestnik.  In a weird and blatant twist, the Russians have been disabling radiation sensors in the area.  And doctors reported Cesium-137 in patients.

Other possibilities - unlikely ones - were a nuclear sub had to do an emergency reactor venting after an explosion.  Yet another possibility was the explosion and the radiation leak were from difference incidents.   Some have thrown out some crazy ideas based on the fact the Russians called the test as using a isotopic power source: a deliciously obfuscating phrase that covers nuclear reactors, RTGs and several other oddities.

The weirdness about the very transient nature of the radioactive cloud and Russia's obfuscations leave a lot of unknowns.  So, while, far less of a mystery than two weeks ago, the real nature of what happened continues to remain murky.

What caused the radiation spike? Why did it clear so quickly? What is going on on the shores of the White Sea?   We suspect, but don't know.

China, Russia are FAR Ahead of the US for Modernizing Their Nuclear Weapons

China and Russia had their money on winning asymmetric advantages in conventional and nuclear forces in the last decade, and now the United States is playing catch-up in modernizing its sea, air and land nuclear forces, the Pentagon’s top policy official said Wednesday.

David Trachtenberg, the Pentagon’s deputy undersecretary for policy, said the United States put off modernizing the three legs of its nuclear deterrent for almost 20 years, he told USNI News following a presentation at the Brookings Institution.

“In the 2000s, we skipped a generation” in modernizing the triad – ballistic missile submarines, bombers and ballistic missiles. He added that the United Kingdom and France, both nuclear powers and NATO allies, reduced their weapons stockpiles while continuing to modernize their nuclear forces during that same time. The United Kingdom has sea-based ballistic missile submarines; France has both submarines and aircraft capable of delivery of nuclear weapons.

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Russia Tested its Burevestnik Their Nuclear Powered Cruise Missile, on January 29, 2019

Russia conducted a partially successful test of its developmental nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik, on January 29, 2019, according to U.S. government sources with knowledge of Russia’s weapons programs who spoke to the The Diplomat. The test took place at Russia’s Kapustin Yar missile test range and is the thirteenth to date involving the missile.

The test marks the first involving the Burevestnik in nearly one year. The missile had not been tested since February 2018. According to one source, U.S. intelligence assesses that Russia’s development efforts on the missile continues. The United States intelligence community internally calls the missile the KY30 or the SSC-X-9 SKYFALL.

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Russians Unveil 9M729 GLCM in Attempt to Save INF Treaty

Russia showed foreign military attaches on Wednesday a new cruise missile that the United States says breaches a landmark arms control pact, billing it as an exercise in transparency it hoped would persuade Washington to stay in the treaty.

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The US demanded Russia destroy the missiles and their launchers.  Russia refused.  NATO backed the US.  The US will quit the treaty.

Russians Claim to Have Successfully Tested the Avangard Boost Glide Weapon

The Russian Defence Ministry, on orders from President Vladimir Putin, on Wednesday conducted a successful test launch of an Avangard missile from the Orenburg region, hitting a target in Kamchatka, the Kremlin press service reports.

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China May Have Tested a new Sub Launched Nuclear Missile

China conducted the first test flight of its next-generation JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in late November, according to report published on the Washington Free Beacon website on 18 December.

Citing unnamed defence officials, the test firing was detected by US missile-launch warning satellites and monitored by US intelligence agencies.

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Russia to Build at Least two More Borey-A SSBNs by 2027

According to an industry source, quoted in the Russian media, the 2018-2027 State Armament Program includes construction of two additional Project 955A/Borey-A submarines. This will bring the number of submarines of the Project 955 class to ten by 2028. The source said that five submarines will be based in the Northern Fleet and five - in the Pacific. He also suggested that the construction of the Borey submarines will continue after 2027, since it is unlikely that the Project 667BDRM subs will be able to remain in service that long. (Back in May 2018, it was suggested that Russia may build six additional Project 955A submarines, bringing the total to 14.)

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Dutch Government Confirms Russia Violating INF Treaty

The Dutch government has information that Russia developed a prohibited cruise missile, according to a letter written by Ministers Stef Blok of Foreign Affairs and Ank Bijleveld of Defense. It involves a SSC-8 missile that has a range of over 500 kilometers, which violates the INF treaty, NOS reports.

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was signed in 1987 between the United States and Russia. It put an end to the Cold War. The treaty forbids the development of missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers.

"The Netherlands can independently confirm that Russia has developed and is currently introducing a ground-based cruise weapon", the two Ministers wrote to the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament. This is based on "intelligence".

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India's First Ballistic Missile Submarine Conducted its First Nuclear Deterrent Patrol

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier this month that the Indian Navy had completed its first sea-based nuclear deterrent patrol it was more of a statement of intent than a demonstration of a new capability.

The Indian Navy’s new ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arihant was the boomer that completed the month-long deterrent patrol. Whilst this is not insignificant – it is the first country outside of the five members of the U.N. Security Council to develop this capability – it also shows how far away India is to achieve its goal of joining the other great powers in establishing a credible sea-based deterrent.

Only the U.S., U.K., France and Russia can sustain continuous-at-sea deterrent patrols, which a provides continuous launch capability of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) by maintaining at least one SSBN on station at any one time that could fire a nuclear missile. A continuous patrol requires a minimum of four SSBNs.

The patrol as a statement will have more effect in diplomatic circles than in military ones. India wants to join the club of countries that can support a sea-based deterrent and eventually achieve a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent. It also means India will have the ability to launch all three air, land and sea-based types of nuclear weapons and a more robust second strike capability.

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Has a Russian Skynet Been Implemented?

“He also said the Soviet-created ‘command’ missile system ‘Perimeter’ capable of transmitting launch commands to intercontinental missiles after an enemy nuclear strike on Russia has been modernized.”

“‘The ‘Perimeter’ system is functioning, and it is even improved,’ said V. Yesin.”

“Answering the question if the ‘Perimeter’ system can guarantee a retaliatory strike in the case of an enemy preemptive attack, the general said: ‘When it is working, we will already have few means remaining – we can launch only the missiles which survive after the aggressor’s first strike.'”

“The expert also stated that ‘we still don’t have an effective response to American medium-range missiles in Europe.'”

“‘Perimeter’ (in English Dead Hand) is an automated command and control system for a massive nuclear retaliatory strike developed in the USSR. According to open information, the ‘Perimeter’ system was created as a component part of the Airborne Command Post (VKP) system under the codename ‘Link’ developed in the Soviet Union.”

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US Threatening to Leave INF Treaty, Russia Hypocritically Angry

President Donald Trump said Washington would withdraw from a landmark Cold War-era treaty that eliminated nuclear missiles from Europe because Russia was violating the pact, triggering a warning of retaliatory measures from Moscow.

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The Hunt for the Red Pluto-ber

Russia has been working on a number of weapons to circumvent the American ballistic missile defense system. They apparently have more faith in the capability than we do. Or less in their ballistic missiles. Either way, the Russians have come up with some pretty crazy things to deal with these defenses. Almost all of their solutions, are as expected, to delivery nuclear weapons.

Two of the craziest of them were the nuclear armed strategic torpedo/unmanned underwater vehicle called the Poseidon (originally called Status-6) and the other was the Burevestnik, a nuclear powered cruise missile. Yes, nuclear powered. We'll get to that. The Poseidon is meant to be fired off and have it swim for thousands of miles to its target, such as a port city, and then either lie in wait or detonate on arrival. The Russians, true to form, have been talking about using it on US aircraft carrier battle groups. The other weapon is even crazier.

The Burevestnik (Storm Petrol, a type of sea bird), as stated, is a nuclear powered nuclear carrying cruise missile. It does carry a nuclear warhead. It also uses a nuclear reactor as a ramjet where it heats the air passing through to make it expand faster creating thrust. The US considered the design in the 1960s in Project Pluto. It was considered too insane to actually use and was abandoned. The Russians decided it was not insane because it gives them effectively, if they can make it work, unlimited range. The nuclear reaction in the reactor could keep the aircraft in the air for years. The downside is that it spews chunks of the reactor everywhere. That was actually a design feature in the original Project Pluto, btw, laying waste to the country side through supersonic shockwaves and leaving radioactive fallout all over the place. Nice, huh? The point though is that the missile could be fired south over Kazakhstan and then go all the way south over Antarctica before coming all the way up to hit the US in say, Florida.

The Russians have been testing this like crazy. Between November 2017 and February 2018, the Russians reportedly fired off four missiles. They all 'crashed.' From the sounds of it, these may have been launcher tests rather than tests of the missile itself. The times and ranges of the flight are pretty off if the reactor was actually on. However, if this was a case where a mass simulator (an inert body like aluminum) was being used with the rocket intended to launch the cruise missile up to ramjet speeds, then those tests make sense. After all, the russians did release a video of one of the cruise missiles followed by chase planes. You are not going to do that if it was a 22 second flight.

However! It may be on the 4th test, they attempted to launch a live reactor carrying cruise missile. The Warzone is reporting the Russians are sending ships to recover the missile from the Barents Sea. If this was a mass simulator, who cares? However, if it is a real missile, then the US and others might want to recover it. They sent a ship to recover a Mig and a sukhoi lost during the Russian flights off their carrier in support of their campaign in Syria for fear of what the US (or others) might find out from the wrecks salvaged from the seafloor. This would be worth about a million times more.

And the US has the capability to retrieve the missile wreck if they want to. That's in part what the USS Jimmy Carter, a heavily modified Seawolf class, is for.

So, we may have a race for whoever recovers the missile first.

You might call it the Hunt for the Red Pluto-ber.

Russian Doomsday Weapons Shown off

Project Burevestnik, the Russian Project Pluto 

Project Poseidon, the Russian nuclear armed UUV

Russia has released new footage of all six of the advanced weapon systems that President Vladimir Putin revealed in an impassioned speech in March 2018. The goal seems to be to prove that there are physical prototypes of each one, but questions remain about how close any of the systems, especially the Poseidon long-range nuclear-armed torpedo and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered and armed cruise missile, are to actually entering service.

The Russian Ministry of Defense posted the clips on YouTube on July 19, 2018. In contrast to previous imagery the country has shown of the weapons involved, in many cases, censors blurred or otherwise obscured certain components, as well as identifying markings on the systems. The new imagery also comes after a controversial summit between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump that reportedly included discussions about existing and future arms control agreements.

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Russians leaked information on the hypersonic missile to the West and the FSB raided the research facilities.

New Russian Sub Launched Nuclear Missile has Entered Service

Russian press quotes a source in the industry as saying that the Bulava SLBM has been finally accepted for service. That was a long wait.

The work on the Bulava program started almost exactly 20 years ago. It was included in the plan that was approved in 1998, when Russia was struggling to find the way to maintain its strategic forces not much below the START II levels of 3500 warheads - at that point it was expected that START II will come into force. It wasn't an easy process and the MITT emerged with two projects in its portfolio - the Topol-M (which will later become Yars) ICBM and the Bulava SLBM. The R-39UTTH Bark SLBM project - a follow-up to R-39/SS-N-20 - was cancelled after three failed flight tests. Part of MITT's argument was that Bulava will use Topol-M technologies and therefore will be cheaper to produce.

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Pakistan has Tested a Nuclear Capable Submarine Launched Cruise Missile

Pakistan announced Thursday that it had successfully conducted another test-firing of a nuclear-capable, submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), which has a range of 450 kilometers.

The indigenously developed Babur missile was fired from an underwater platform and “engaged its target with precise accuracy,” a military statement said.

The rocket is capable of delivering “various types of payloads” and provides Pakistan a “credible” second-strike capability.

Military spokesman Major-General Asif Ghafoor, while referring to the country’s archrival India, said the development of Babur was a response to “provocative nuclear strategies and posture being pursued in the neighborhood.” He also released some footage of the testing.

Pakistan said its nuclear and missile development programs are India-specific and have effectively deterred the bigger neighbor, with its larger military power, from imposing another war on the country.

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How Russia Will Deploy its Avangard Hypersonic Boost Glide Weapon

Russia will apparently use surplus UR-100UTTKh — NATO: SS-19 Stiletto — and the RS-28 Sarmat liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles as the launch vehicle for its Avangard hypersonic boost-glide weapon.

The new weapons will initially be deployed onboard UR-100UTTKn missiles that were returned from Ukraine after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Once the Sarmat is ready for operations, the Avangard will be deployed on that 200-ton missile also.

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Most of Putin's new weapons actually date back to at least the Soviet Union's response to Reagan's SDI.  The exception appears to be the Russian Project Pluto.

Yes, Virginia. It Does Appear Vlad the Irradiator Built a Project Pluto Cruise Missile

Last week Vladimir Putin, a frequently shirtless equestrian ghoul who also happens to run the Country Formerly Known As The Soviet Union, gave a long, mildly unhinged state-of-Russia speech that made reference to a number of new Russian weapons systems, including an anti-Mar-A-Lago missile system and a nuclear-powered cruise missile. This nuclear-powered missile is interesting because it appears to be a copy of something America thought was too batshit back in the 1960s.

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Putin claims that they had a successful test of the nuclear-powered missile in 2017, and they are ready to begin manufacture of the missile. This image from the video seems to show that test in progress, with the missile itself on the inset of the video feed from a chase plane:

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Did Russia Actually Build Project Pluto?!

Putin also spoke of a small nuclear-powered engine that could be fitted to what he said were low-flying, highly maneuverable cruise missiles, giving them a practically unlimited range.

The new engine meant Russia was able to make a new type of weapon - nuclear missiles powered by nuclear rather than conventional fuel.

“Nothing like it in the world exists,” Putin told the audience. “At some point it will probably appear (elsewhere) but by that time our guys will have devised something else.”

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This sounds like Project Pluto.

Gawd, let's hope that it's not.  However, given where Russia's tech is at, something that was feasible in the 1950s/60s would be right up their alley.

Update:  A source from the five sided building states the Russian version of Project Pluto is real and powered by a unshielded nuclear reactor.  There was supposedly a crash in the Arctic by a prototype not too long ago and the project is still in development rather than ready for deployment.