Russia Tested its Already Existing Iskander IRBM...and it Broke the INF Limits "accidentally"

During a planned live-firing exercise by Russia, one of its Iskander-M ballistic missile flew beyond 600km and landed outside its designated target area. The missile is said to have been fired from Kapustin Yar for the Makat firing range in Kazakhstan. However, the missile ended up in the Bayganinsky district. The SS-26 Stone or “Iskander” is a road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of up to 500 km. Using a common transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) and support vehicles, the system can also fire the 9M728 (R-500, SSC-7) and 9M729 cruise missiles. Russia began development of the SS-26 in the late 1980s to replace the OTR-23 “Oka” SRBM.

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A Chinese Air Launched Ballistic Missile may be Entering Service Soon (or Already)

An article published in the Chinese bi-monthly magazine Modern Ships illustrating how a Xian H-6N strategic bomber would carry an air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) may indicate that this capability is in the final stages of development, or may even have entered service.

The 1 November issue of the magazine shows on its cover a high-quality computer-generated (CG) image of an H-6N, the latest variant of the H-6 bomber, carrying an underslung missile. The cover features the headline ‘Bombers rule the waves’ and more CG images of the ALBM-carrying bomber are included inside the magazine.

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China May Have Tested a new Sub Launched Nuclear Missile

China conducted the first test flight of its next-generation JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in late November, according to report published on the Washington Free Beacon website on 18 December.

Citing unnamed defence officials, the test firing was detected by US missile-launch warning satellites and monitored by US intelligence agencies.

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Russia to Build at Least two More Borey-A SSBNs by 2027

According to an industry source, quoted in the Russian media, the 2018-2027 State Armament Program includes construction of two additional Project 955A/Borey-A submarines. This will bring the number of submarines of the Project 955 class to ten by 2028. The source said that five submarines will be based in the Northern Fleet and five - in the Pacific. He also suggested that the construction of the Borey submarines will continue after 2027, since it is unlikely that the Project 667BDRM subs will be able to remain in service that long. (Back in May 2018, it was suggested that Russia may build six additional Project 955A submarines, bringing the total to 14.)

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India's First Ballistic Missile Submarine Conducted its First Nuclear Deterrent Patrol

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier this month that the Indian Navy had completed its first sea-based nuclear deterrent patrol it was more of a statement of intent than a demonstration of a new capability.

The Indian Navy’s new ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arihant was the boomer that completed the month-long deterrent patrol. Whilst this is not insignificant – it is the first country outside of the five members of the U.N. Security Council to develop this capability – it also shows how far away India is to achieve its goal of joining the other great powers in establishing a credible sea-based deterrent.

Only the U.S., U.K., France and Russia can sustain continuous-at-sea deterrent patrols, which a provides continuous launch capability of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) by maintaining at least one SSBN on station at any one time that could fire a nuclear missile. A continuous patrol requires a minimum of four SSBNs.

The patrol as a statement will have more effect in diplomatic circles than in military ones. India wants to join the club of countries that can support a sea-based deterrent and eventually achieve a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent. It also means India will have the ability to launch all three air, land and sea-based types of nuclear weapons and a more robust second strike capability.

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US Threatening to Leave INF Treaty, Russia Hypocritically Angry

President Donald Trump said Washington would withdraw from a landmark Cold War-era treaty that eliminated nuclear missiles from Europe because Russia was violating the pact, triggering a warning of retaliatory measures from Moscow.

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New Russian Sub Launched Nuclear Missile has Entered Service

Russian press quotes a source in the industry as saying that the Bulava SLBM has been finally accepted for service. That was a long wait.

The work on the Bulava program started almost exactly 20 years ago. It was included in the plan that was approved in 1998, when Russia was struggling to find the way to maintain its strategic forces not much below the START II levels of 3500 warheads - at that point it was expected that START II will come into force. It wasn't an easy process and the MITT emerged with two projects in its portfolio - the Topol-M (which will later become Yars) ICBM and the Bulava SLBM. The R-39UTTH Bark SLBM project - a follow-up to R-39/SS-N-20 - was cancelled after three failed flight tests. Part of MITT's argument was that Bulava will use Topol-M technologies and therefore will be cheaper to produce.

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Russia Tested the SARMAT ICBM

Sources in the military or defense industry tell Russian press that the first ejection test of the Sarmat missile did take place in Plesetsk. Normally, MK is not the most reliable source, but this time the information appears to be correct - sources on the other side also say that the test did happen.

The MK report leaves the impression that the test took place in the last few days of this year, but the test apparently took place in early December. Which is interesting - a few days ago Rogozin had a chance to comment on the progress of the Sarmat program and he refused to say anything. In any event, the program is clearly behind the schedule and my take is that the chances of Sarmat being deployed in 2020 are extremely slim.

One detail in the MK report caught eye of a few observers - the missile reportedly flew "several tens of kilometers" before landing "within the test site." This is a bit too far for an ejection test. It's quite possible that the reporter mixed up meters and kilometers. Or the launch involved a limited test of the first stage engines. A mix-up seems a safer bet, but a test of the engines is possible as well.

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Has Russia Given up on Developing a Rail Based Nuclear Missile?

A news article published on Russian government daily newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Dec. 2 says Moscow has given up on the development of a rail-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

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So it seems.

But then, this isn't the first time the rail based nuclear weapons have been canceled.  And revived.

Russia Will Launch 4th Borei Nuclear Missile Sub in November

The first advanced version of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Project 955A Borei-class (North Wind) – the Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir) – will be floated out this coming November, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Vladimir Korolev, said in an interview with the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper.

“In the near future, the Severodvinsk-based Sevmash Shipyard will float out a new nuclear-powered missile underwater cruiser, the Knyaz Vladimir, from the slipway. The event will take place in November,” he said.

Korolev earlier said that the fourth Borei-class boomer was supposed to have been floated out in August.

The Knyaz Vladimir was laid down in 2012 and will become the fourth submarine in the series of eight Borei-class underwater cruisers and the first submarine of the advanced Borei-A Project.

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Russian Experimental Nuclear Warheads Were Deployed in Parallel

It appears that we have an answer to the question of what kind of "experimental warheads" were tested in the September 12 Yars launch. And a confirmation of a guess made on Twitter by @artjomh shortly after the test. The image above is from that post - it's from a textbook they use at the Bauman University. According to The Diplomat's Ankit Panda, Russia tested "an independent post-boost vehicle (IPBV) configuration for a three-warhead version [of the Yars ICBM]." The Bauman textbook calls it "an RV with independent (parallel) deployment." As can be seen from the image, each RV is sitting on top of its own mini-bus, which is different from a more common configuration, when one bus deploys RVs one after another.

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Has China Been Practicing Missile Strikes on US Military Bases?

You’ve probably heard that China’s military has developed a “carrier-killer” ballistic missile to threaten one of America’s premier power-projection tools, its unmatched fleet of aircraft carriers. Or perhaps you’ve read about China’s deployment of its own aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. But heavily defended moving targets like aircraft carriers would be a challenge to hit in open ocean, and were China’s own aircraft carrier (or even two or three like it) to venture into open water in anger, the U.S. submarine force would make short work of it. In reality, the greatest military threat to U.S. vital interests in Asia may be one that has received somewhat less attention: the growing capability of China’s missile forces to strike U.S. bases. This is a time of increasing tension, with China’s news organizations openly threatening war. U.S. leaders and policymakers should understand that a preemptive Chinese missile strike against the forward bases that underpin U.S. military power in the Western Pacific is a very real possibility, particularly if China believes its claimed core strategic interests are threatened in the course of a crisis and perceives that its attempts at deterrence have failed. Such a preemptive strike appears consistent with available information about China’s missile force doctrine, and the satellite imagery shown below points to what may be real-world efforts to practice its execution

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Is Russia's SARMAT Heavy ICBM Program in Trouble?

The Sarmat program that is expected to produce a new "heavy" ICBM, appears to have hit some kind of a bump. Of course, it's hard to know it for certain--these things don't get a lot of coverage--but there are a few signs that may suggest that the program is in some kind of trouble.

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US Air Force Presses Ahead With Nuclear Weapon Systems

The Air Force moved ahead with two critical nuclear modernization programs on Friday, releasing requests for proposals for its intercontinental ballistic missile replacement and a nuclear cruise missile.

The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), which replaces the 1960s-era Minutemen III ICBM, and the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) weapon, which will supersede the AGM-86B Air Launched Cruise Missile, are seen by the service as pivotal for maintaining the nuclear triad and an effective strategic deterrent.

However, both programs have come under fire by lawmakers and analysts who assert that the the weapons are too costly, duplicative or even that they could add to global instability.

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The replacement nuclear bomb has received the go ahead to start production engineering.

US Navy Nuclear Submarine Plans

Got subs? The Navy sounds increasingly confident it can squeeze an extra submarine into its construction plans. The additional Virginia-class attack sub, to be funded in the 2021 budget, would enter service just as the attack submarine force shrinks to historic lows while Chinese and Russian fleets grow in both numbers and sophistication.

The Navy had planned to cut back production of Virginias, which carry conventional cruise missiles and torpedoes, to make room for the much larger Ohio Replacement Program (ORP) boats, which carry nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Maintaining the nuclear deterrent for the worst case scenario takes top priority — but attack submarines are in high demand every day. The growing threat of nuclear-armed great powers increases the need for both kinds of boats. It’s a painful tradeoff the Navy would rather not make.

Now new Navy studies suggest the shipyards can keep building two Virginias a year, the current rate, even as they start building the first “boomer” in 2021. As Ohio Replacement production ramps up after 2021, however, keeping up two Virginias a year will become harder.

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The Navy will present an updated Ohio Replacement Program cost estimate to the Defense Department later this summer and seek approval to move into detailed design and engineering work, the Program Executive Officer for Submarines said today.

The new ballistic missile submarine program will request a Milestone B decision from the Pentagon’s acquisition chief and the Defense Acquisition Board, and “coincident with that, we’re also producing a new cost estimate,” Rear Adm. Michael Jabaley said at an event co-hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Naval Institute. He said the Navy is still working through this component cost position, of the lifecycle cost estimate, and is awaiting final approval of that dollar figure before presenting to the DAB.

A 2014 cost estimate put the program’s average follow-ship cost — ships two through 12, not including the typically most-expensive lead ship – at $5.2 billion, squarely in between the mandatory threshold of $5.6 billion and the target objective of $4.9 billion. Jabaley added that the 2014 cost estimate put the non-recurring costs – engineering work and building facilities to produce the subs – at $17.4 billion. Updated figures will be publicly released after the DAB approves the Milestone B decision, he said.

Jabaley said he views it as his responsibility to not only control costs for ORP but to actively seek ways to reduce cost.

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China may Have a new Modified Balllistic Missile Submarine Class (or subclass)

After the recent revelation that China has a new variant of its Shang-class (Type 093) nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN), new images suggest there is at least one Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) with similar modifications, called the Type 094A by some Chinese sources.

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Significant (extraordinary) Advancement Claims for Russian Hypersonic Boost Glide Project 4202 Weapon

Russia’s new Yu-74 ultra-maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicles may become yet another response to the deployment of NATO’s missile installations in Eastern Europe, according to military analysts. Going head to head with the United States and China, Russia has been developing its own hypersonic weapons during the past few years.

A hypersonic weapon usually has a speed between 3,840 miles per hour (Mach 5) and 7,680 miles per hour (Mach 10). Furthermore, these systems use sophisticated technologies for maneuvering and boast allow the rapid delivery of warheads, precise targeting and survivability against wide range of missile defense systems.

Last year Russia conducted a series of tests of the Yu-71 hypersonic attack aircraft. The Yu-71 is part of secret missile program codenamed “Project 4202.” The glider was said to reach speeds of up to 7,000 miles per hour. Due to its outstanding maneuverability and high speed the system can overcome any defense shield, military experts noted.

But that is half the story. According to analytical website Ostkraft.ru, this year Russia successfully tested its experimental Yu-74 hypersonic glide vehicle. The Yu-74 was carried by the intercontinental-range RS-18A (NATO codename: SS-19 Stiletto) ballistic missile system. The glider was launched from the Dombarovsky missile base in the Orenburg region and hit a target located at Kura Missile Test Range in northern Kamchatka region, the Russian Far East.

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The USAF Does *NOT* Want to Replace the Minuteman ICBMs with Road Mobile Nukes

The US Air Force (USAF) is pushing ahead with its Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) programme to replace the ageing Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fleet, and a top service official said a road-mobile option is not currently being considered despite some insinuations otherwise.

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South Korea Developing its own Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles

The South Korean Military is developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), a high-ranking military official said.

“On the 3,000-ton Jangbogo-III submarine, which is currently under production, we are installing a vertical launching pad,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. SLBMs are fired undersea and are therefore difficult to detect by radar. He added, “The installation of a vertical launching pad indicates that the SLBM is already under development.” The official also went on to say that the SLBM is being developed under the aegis of the Agency of Defense Development and is expected to be completed by 2020.

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Did India Lie About its Ballistic Missile Intercept Test?

The Hindu said the ballistic missile intercept test carried out by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) on May 15 was a failure because the interceptor was not launched in the first place.

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